NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 62390 times)
King of Kensington
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« Reply #1800 on: June 23, 2021, 01:40:36 PM »

5 political boroughs of NYC:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1801 on: June 23, 2021, 01:43:11 PM »

How many mail/absentee ballots are out? Interesting to see how those come down, b/c I'd assume they'd be better for Garcia/Wiley than Adams.

87K already-returned & 150K outstanding, none of which have yet to be counted.

So we've got a decent sized amount left, which could lower Adams back into the 20s, and boost Garcia into the 20s. At least that's what I'm hoping.

I think that will happen. See breakdown below of the absentee ballots by county. Manhattan is well overrepresented (more returns than any other borough, and more requests than Brooklyn, though fewer than Queens) and the Bronx in particular is very underrepresented.

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/absentee_reports/PE2021/CityWide_Recap_BoroughsAndParties_asof_June21_2021.pdf
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1802 on: June 23, 2021, 01:44:11 PM »


TBH this primary's results proved that their analysis was garbage.
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Canis
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« Reply #1803 on: June 23, 2021, 01:48:59 PM »

Glad Walton won in Buffalo when will the rcv tabulation begin?
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The End to the Epic
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« Reply #1804 on: June 23, 2021, 01:58:07 PM »

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

I'm interested in what the activist freakout will look like when Jacob Frey is re-elected.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1805 on: June 23, 2021, 02:06:57 PM »


I thought the results vindicated their analysis, aside from possibly underestimating Adams in The True-Blue Bronx.

Thought this was interesting: https://www.theuprising.info/p/yang-presidential-campaign-advisers

Quote
The ex-adviser also said the Tusk team sidelined one of Yang’s most high profile surrogates, stand-up comedy megastar Dave Chappelle. “Dave Chappelle offered to do free shows,” the former adviser said.”Tusk said no. They found him too controversial.”
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jaichind
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« Reply #1806 on: June 23, 2021, 02:29:21 PM »

Bloomberg News report that of the absentee ballots returned to the Board of Elections by Tuesday, 46% came from state Assembly districts that Adams won, followed by 31% from districts Garcia won.
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
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« Reply #1807 on: June 23, 2021, 02:42:54 PM »

Bloomberg News report that of the absentee ballots returned to the Board of Elections by Tuesday, 46% came from state Assembly districts that Adams won, followed by 31% from districts Garcia won.

Welp, it was a fun ride.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #1808 on: June 23, 2021, 02:56:27 PM »

Bloomberg News report that of the absentee ballots returned to the Board of Elections by Tuesday, 46% came from state Assembly districts that Adams won, followed by 31% from districts Garcia won.

Welp, it was a fun ride.

Well, Adams won 37 ADs (56.9%) while Garcia just 25% of them. Regarding votes, ADs that Adams won represent 50.2% of the vote while ADs that Garcia won represent 25% of the vote. That suggest that the absentee ballots could improve Garcia's result.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #1809 on: June 23, 2021, 03:16:09 PM »

Adams won because hes put in work in the community for decades - no other candidate could say the same.

This isn't at odds with Lief's story. Adams took a different line on police reform both because he had enough grassroots support of his own that there was no need to pander to radical activists and because, compared to his competitors, he was uniquely in touch with how the crime wave is affecting people who can't avoid the streets or the subway.
https://twitter.com/__seab/status/1407698963764068355?s=20
Not pandering here? C'mon!
Eric Adams has pandered to radical activists his whole life - that's why he was hanging with the Nation in the 90s and why he endorsed Bernie in 2016. It's just a different set/age group of them.

I am aware of Adams' history as a police reform advocate and view it as a strength. He would not have been the strongest candidate on law enforcement issues if his position were simply that the NYPD should be able to do whatever it wants. Bernie was the candidate of weirdos, cranks, and eccentrics in 2016 - including me - so there's nothing wrong with either.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1810 on: June 23, 2021, 04:23:45 PM »

Bloomberg News report that of the absentee ballots returned to the Board of Elections by Tuesday, 46% came from state Assembly districts that Adams won, followed by 31% from districts Garcia won.

Welp, it was a fun ride.

Well, Adams won 37 ADs (56.9%) while Garcia just 25% of them. Regarding votes, ADs that Adams won represent 50.2% of the vote while ADs that Garcia won represent 25% of the vote. That suggest that the absentee ballots could improve Garcia's result.

Right - no one thinks absentees will put Garcia ahead of Adams. Just that the margin will close a bit, which matters a lot to the RCV analysis. Being down by 11% is nearly insurmountable. Being down by, say, 8% is possible to come back from though still not especially likely. And the Bloomberg News analysis supports the conclusion that absentees will close the margin a bit.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1811 on: June 23, 2021, 10:55:25 PM »

As has been pretty obvious based on my posts in this thread, I was very excited to discover that Eric Adams had given his opponents a hard thrashing on the basis of working class people of all backgrounds supporting him because he pledged to be a "blue collar mayor", took public safety seriously and touted his labor union endorsements. In my view, the triumph of Eric Adams is a triumph of an old school machine politician over vacuous upper class liberalism in all of its varieties. Whether it is radical, moderate or center-right, it stinks and repulses people who aren't freaks.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1812 on: June 23, 2021, 11:07:29 PM »

I'm glad that Adams is the probably most likely winner at this point. Yang was my first pick but Adams was clearly a true man of the people to a degree most of his opponents weren't.
Better him than Garcia, who is likely to be his strongest opponent.
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PSOL
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« Reply #1813 on: June 23, 2021, 11:10:10 PM »

What is the state of the new council shaping up to be?
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1814 on: June 23, 2021, 11:44:51 PM »

So I decided to look at the numbers for what Wiley/Garcia might need to overcome Adams in the "instant" runoff, and it's a very, very high bar. The New York Times and Politico seem to think there's another 150k+ ballots left to come in and, while their estimates of which boroughs are currently over/underrepresented does little to change the percentages of each candidate, it does expand Adams's lead by another 16,000 votes. All that considered, Wiley would need to net ~92,000 votes in reallocation to win, while Garcia would need ~118,000.

Depending on ballot exhaustion, that ends up being between 61-39 Wiley (hypothetical 0% exhaustion), up to 66-34 Wiley (with 35% exhaustion). In the case of Garcia, those numbers are 63-37 to 70-30. Wiley's path looks very steep in this regard: of the three runoff polls done where she was the final challenger to Adams, her highest percentage of transfers was 52%. However, Garcia might have a narrow shot. Of the seven polls conducted over the past month that had her as the final challenger, she's gotten anywhere from 47% (the only poll to see Adam's beat her in transfers) to 62% (in the most recent DfP poll). Her median has been 56%, which would leave her about 40,000 votes behind Adams even at 0% exhaustion.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1815 on: June 23, 2021, 11:58:56 PM »

Is there a good results map somewhere? Don't want to give money to the N*w Y*rk T*mes.

Cinyc has an interactive map on RRH.

Yeah, I did. Sorry for not cross-posting it here before election night. It was a bit of a technological miracle that it worked at all (and required a little bit of manual input while I was simultaneously trying to write the RRH election night live blog). NYC's precinct results are in 65 separate tables that need to be scraped for each race (I mapped D & R mayor). Google Sheets was choking on the task. I used Excel to get the data into my homemade svg map solution. Fun times!

Anyway, enough boring technical talk. ICYMI, the permalink is here:
https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/06/22/new-york-2021-primary-elections-liveblog-livemap
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warandwar
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« Reply #1816 on: June 24, 2021, 09:00:17 AM »

I've only been passively following this race, but I've seen some references to Yang support among Orthodox Jewish communities. Is there a backstory here that I missed?

Ultra-Orthodox specifically. Yang supported the city largely letting them run their yeshivas without any educational content. Other candidates (except Adams) were more mixed or ignored the issue (because they know the yeshivas should be required to teach subjects like math, English and history morally and are actually required to do so under the law but don't want to anger the ultra-Orthodox).
Adams beat Yang in many Orthodox communities. Another example of people holding on to assumptions from a few months ago and not noticing the reality on the ground.

Adams won in Orthodox but not ultra-Orthodox areas. Yang won all of the ultra-Orthodox communities except the Crown Heights one, which has long ties to Adams.
Adams won Far Rock, Midwood, Flatbush, Kew Gardens, 1/3rd of Satmar Wburg.

Midwood and Flatbush are Orthodox but not ultra-Orthodox areas so prove my point. Yang won Kew Gardens Hills (the ultra-Orthodox enclave; Kew Gardens proper is not very Orthodox at all), though not by a huge margin and there seems to have been a divide where some precincts did vote Adams, generally was close in every precinct. Agree Adams won the ultra-Orthodox enclave in Far Rockaway, which is pretty small. Adams didn't win any precincts in the Satmar parts of Williamsburg, though he did get some votes (much less than 1/3 - more like 20%). I wasn't contending that Adams didn't win any ultra-Orthodox votes, just that he was the clear minority vote-getter among ultra-Orthodox.
Orthodox/ultea-orthodox is not a meaningful distinction. Hasidish/Yeshivish is a more proper distinction, but both communities contain overlap with ModOx. They are all frum, which is probably the best word to describe them.
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Badger
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« Reply #1817 on: June 24, 2021, 02:18:15 PM »

Is there a good results map somewhere? Don't want to give money to the N*w Y*rk T*mes.

Cinyc has an interactive map on RRH.

Yeah, I did. Sorry for not cross-posting it here before election night. It was a bit of a technological miracle that it worked at all (and required a little bit of manual input while I was simultaneously trying to write the RRH election night live blog). NYC's precinct results are in 65 separate tables that need to be scraped for each race (I mapped D & R mayor). Google Sheets was choking on the task. I used Excel to get the data into my homemade svg map solution. Fun times!

Anyway, enough boring technical talk. ICYMI, the permalink is here:
https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/06/22/new-york-2021-primary-elections-liveblog-livemap
.

Thank you for the awesome map, sir.

That said, Can anyone point to actual final vote tallies? Even broken down to Garcia versus Adams final count pending absentees? Anything beyond that breaking it down by rounds of voting let alone by Borough would be amount of icing on the political nerd cake.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #1818 on: June 24, 2021, 02:48:55 PM »

Turnout was relatively pretty high. About 100K more people voted in the Democratic primary, as compared to 2013 (The last time there was a competitive D primary for mayor). About 10K less people voted in the GOP primary, as also compared to 2013 (Malliotakis was unopposed for the nomination in 2017).
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #1819 on: June 24, 2021, 03:04:07 PM »

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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #1820 on: June 24, 2021, 03:13:59 PM »



I'm not his biggest fan, but I do think that there are some things that the Democrats can learn from him.
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AltWorlder
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« Reply #1821 on: June 24, 2021, 03:52:18 PM »

Calling it now: if he has national aspirations, Adams is the Democratic Trump. Or at least the Democratic Giuliani.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=452569.0
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
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« Reply #1822 on: June 24, 2021, 04:00:07 PM »

What a self-absorbed weirdo. My main criticism of Yang was that he didn't seem interested in actually governing and instead was using the Mayor's office as a launching pad for higher office. Adams seems to be doing exactly the same thing. I can see him launching a vanity Presidential run in 2028 just like BDB did last year. The one thing I was willing to give him credit for was that he had NY roots and seemed to care about the city despite the many areas where I disagreed with him. Now I'm not so sure I can give him as much credit. We'll see how he actually governs.
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The End to the Epic
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« Reply #1823 on: June 24, 2021, 05:35:15 PM »

LOL NYC mayor is like the ultimate career killing office. Adams will disappear after 2029 and will hardly be heard of ever again. He's welcome to run for President in 2028 and do as well as the last three mayors of NYC's Presidential campaigns did of course.
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AltWorlder
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« Reply #1824 on: June 24, 2021, 05:40:57 PM »

Adams sounds both more personable and pugnacious the last few NYC mayors. Maybe he's Giuliani level.
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