NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:33:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 65 66 67 68 69 [70] 71 72 73 74 75 ... 97
Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125659 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1725 on: June 22, 2021, 10:34:49 PM »

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.


Eyeballing it, but Wiley seems to be running an (incredibly distant) second to Adams in many of the predominantly black precincts, which indicates that she's probably doing (comparatively speaking) well with younger black voters as well.

Yes, that's clear by her strength in Bed-Stuy and western Crown Heights, which are not nearly white enough yet for her performance to be explained solely by white liberals. She's winning young voters of all ethnicities (except maybe young Asian voters). Turnout is truly phenomenally terrible (like, maybe under 5%) among young black voters, though.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1726 on: June 22, 2021, 10:49:06 PM »

For those of us in late, what gets counted tonight and what doesn't?
Logged
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,406
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1727 on: June 22, 2021, 10:52:23 PM »

Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1728 on: June 22, 2021, 10:52:34 PM »

There's also a clear phenomenon of Wiley doing best in areas that are between strong Garcia areas and strong Adams areas. This leads to the generalization, which I think is quite true, actually, that Garcia was the candidate of the gentrified, Adams the candidate of the ungentrified, and Wiley the candidate of the gentrifiers (lol).
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,983
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1729 on: June 22, 2021, 10:53:03 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 11:00:15 PM by Roll Roons »

I actually had no idea TR ran for mayor. The more you learn...
Logged
Biden his time
Abdullah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,644
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1730 on: June 22, 2021, 10:54:57 PM »

The Onion never disappoints!
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1731 on: June 22, 2021, 10:58:40 PM »


I take it this means that Kathryn Garcia will be elected Vice President in 2036, succeed to the presidency in the following year, be re-elected in an absolute landslide in 2040, & go on to become one of the greatest Presidents in American history?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1732 on: June 22, 2021, 11:08:53 PM »

For those of us in late, what gets counted tonight and what doesn't?


This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?

All election day and early in-person first preferences will be known tonight. All absentees and other mail votes are not counted until June 29 as per NY law, which gives 1 week for ballots to arrive that were postmarked on or before Election Day. Voters are also given time to 'cure' their ballot in the event of any defects until July 9. June 29 is when there votes will be entered into the pool. They will start providing weekly updates on the full vote on July 6. Supposedly this puts July 12 as the day of reckoning since all votes will then be in the system. However, this assumes competence and priority on the part of NYC tabulators, and they have not demonstrated either in the past. NYC does have all the city council and borough races as will to enumerate. Checking back on the RCV special elections in the Bronx that happened earlier in the year, it appears that it is the first round votes that take the longest. Once the enumerators have every legal vote from within the time period, then they reallocate and this apparently goes very quickly through software. Allocation will be announced all at once, rather than by round.
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,363
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1733 on: June 22, 2021, 11:10:22 PM »

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.
Buffalo and Rochester Mayoral primary results suggest otherwise. Two powerhouse NY Dem. Party Mayors, very "tough on crime" and business-friendly, just collapsed to Democratic Socialist candidates.

The need for Biden Democrats is a purple state issue - not a blue state issue. Stop fearing the paper tiger.

Is Malik Evans DSA aligned? I'm not finding that information anywhere online.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1734 on: June 22, 2021, 11:14:23 PM »

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.
Lunatic take from these results - generic wfp progressives with no details given defund stances are crushing it.
Conservative greivance politics did not work in the council races anywhere. Adams won because hes put in work in the community for decades - no other candidate could say the same.

And meanwhile in Rochester... chanting  12 at a victory party. I love it Smiley https://twitter.com/WillCleveland13/status/1407541088169213953?s=20
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1735 on: June 22, 2021, 11:15:42 PM »

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.
Buffalo and Rochester Mayoral primary results suggest otherwise. Two powerhouse NY Dem. Party Mayors, very "tough on crime" and business-friendly, just collapsed to Democratic Socialist candidates.

The need for Biden Democrats is a purple state issue - not a blue state issue. Stop fearing the paper tiger.

Is Malik Evans DSA aligned? I'm not finding that information anywhere online.
No, just wfp. Dsa endorsed candidates are getting 2-3 seats on the Rochester city council - a very good result.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1736 on: June 22, 2021, 11:17:30 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 11:21:26 PM by warandwar »

I predicted an Adams win in January 2020 on AAD, way before any of this "crime" bullsh**t. Lief has been spamming reddit takes about Yang's supposedly insurmountable lead for months. You dont need to buy into facile media spin in order to see the unique potential of Adams' candidacy. Dig deeper.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1737 on: June 22, 2021, 11:23:54 PM »

For those of us in late, what gets counted tonight and what doesn't?


This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?

All election day and early in-person first preferences will be known tonight. All absentees and other mail votes are not counted until June 29 as per NY law, which gives 1 week for ballots to arrive that were postmarked on or before Election Day. Voters are also given time to 'cure' their ballot in the event of any defects until July 9. June 29 is when there votes will be entered into the pool. They will start providing weekly updates on the full vote on July 6. Supposedly this puts July 12 as the day of reckoning since all votes will then be in the system. However, this assumes competence and priority on the part of NYC tabulators, and they have not demonstrated either in the past. NYC does have all the city council and borough races as will to enumerate. Checking back on the RCV special elections in the Bronx that happened earlier in the year, it appears that it is the first round votes that take the longest. Once the enumerators have every legal vote from within the time period, then they reallocate and this apparently goes very quickly through software. Allocation will be announced all at once, rather than by round.

In other words, the results tonight are probably relatively worse for Garcia in particular (absentees will skew much whiter than the overall vote) and to a lesser extent maybe Yang (since he may have banked a lot of absentees weeks ago when his poll numbers were a lot better) and better for Adams than the final first-choice ballots will be.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1738 on: June 22, 2021, 11:46:09 PM »

RIP.

Logged
Pyro
PyroTheFox
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,697
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1739 on: June 22, 2021, 11:50:02 PM »

Not looking good for the NYC mayoral race, but India Walton winning in Buffalo is nothing less than historic.
Logged
Babeuf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1740 on: June 23, 2021, 12:12:43 AM »

I’m a little worried the absentees could shift Manhattan DA to Weinstein. They should be whiter than the in person votes.
Logged
SInNYC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,204


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1741 on: June 23, 2021, 12:54:17 AM »

YANG OUT



Yang for Governor.

I don't think he's that stupid, politically speaking.

Go home, re-launch Venture for America, work on the podcast/probably launch a Youtube or Twitch channel, get a book deal on campaigning, spend some time with the kids and wife.

I think the earliest we'll see him again, if ever, is after 2024. I think he fully understands now that the center-left/technocrat politics just isn't popular enough yet is past its days in America.

fixed it for you
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,314
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1742 on: June 23, 2021, 12:55:18 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/22/nyregion/nyc-primary-election/some-progressives-and-climate-activists-bet-on-council-contests-not-the-mayors-race

Some progressives and climate activists bet on council contests, not the mayor’s race.

Quote
“Rank Crystal Hudson No. 1 for City Council.”

“Rank Michael Hollingsworth No. 1 for City Council.”

That was the refrain outside a polling station in the Crown Heights section of Brooklyn, where two leading candidates for a seat on New York’s lawmaking body are in a fierce fight. Both are running as progressives. Both embrace core liberal planks like the Green New Deal.

On a Primary Day that has the current mayor, at least, expecting disappointment for left-leaning Democrats, some of the most fired-up progressives are not even focused on the mayoral race. They are betting on council races, where they believe they can make their biggest gains.

They also say they have found that climate and environmental justice — key priorities that never rose to the top of the mayor’s race — work better as retail politics in local districts where they can be connected to specific neighborhood problems like pollution from power plants.

“The climate crisis is a winning talking point in a local municipal election,” Stylianos Karolidis, a climate activist with the New York chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, said as he knocked on doors in Astoria, his home neighborhood, with Tiffany Cabán, who is favored to win the Council seat in the Queens district. “It’s incredibly exciting to be proving that.”

Ms. Cabán is one of six candidates D.S.A. is running for Council seats. All of them, including Mr. Hollingsworth, snagged the coveted approval of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“We’re opposing a new power plant in the neighborhood, because we already have high asthma rates here,” Ms. Cabán told a voter through a cracked door.

Canvassers for Jo Anne Simon, a State Assembly member running for Brooklyn borough president, have emphasized her sponsorship of a “public power” bill to authorize projects like an alternative to private utilities that charge consumers to build new infrastructure that remains reliant on fossil fuels.

And although Mr. Hollingsworth has focused mainly on housing, volunteers campaigning for him on Tuesday said he had also won support from residents fighting a pipeline through North Brooklyn and a tower that would overshadow the Brooklyn Botanic Garden.

“You ask them how they’re doing, and they say, ‘Man, I just got this insane ConEd bill,’” said James Thacher, a volunteer. “And then you start talking about municipally-owned renewable energy.”




Quote from: AAD
Wiley appears to be safely in second place. This is probably the best possible outcome for AOC and the progressives, they can take credit for her better than expected showing without having to deal with any fallout from what would have likely been her disastrous term as Mayor.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1743 on: June 23, 2021, 02:10:18 AM »

Wonder who de Blasio voted for.
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,094
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1744 on: June 23, 2021, 03:31:43 AM »

Congratulations to the NYGOP for picking up the Mayor's office!
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1745 on: June 23, 2021, 03:41:05 AM »


Adams.


Congratulations to the NYGOP for picking up the Mayor's office!

I really hope Garcia's ranks come in clutch & render this "exquisitely aged" come July 12th.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1746 on: June 23, 2021, 05:42:35 AM »

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

Buffalo and Rochester Mayoral primary results suggest otherwise. Two powerhouse NY Dem. Party Mayors, very "tough on crime" and business-friendly, just collapsed to Democratic Socialist candidates.

The need for Biden Democrats is a purple state issue - not a blue state issue. Stop fearing the paper tiger.

Since the battlegrounds in 2022 will obviously be in purple districts, and in purple states in 2024, I don’t see how this changes anything. Also even electing/nominating far left candidates in safe districts/states hurts the party’s national image with swing voters in purple states/districts. And in some cases can make those districts/states less safe than they should be. IDK if there’s a chance for a Republican to win in Buffalo or Rochester, but wouldn’t be surprised if the DSA candidates underperform at least.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1747 on: June 23, 2021, 05:57:02 AM »

How many mail/absentee ballots are out? Interesting to see how those come down, b/c I'd assume they'd be better for Garcia/Wiley than Adams.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1748 on: June 23, 2021, 06:12:45 AM »

How many mail/absentee ballots are out? Interesting to see how those come down, b/c I'd assume they'd be better for Garcia/Wiley than Adams.

87K already-returned & 150K outstanding, none of which have yet to be counted.
Logged
Averroës Nix
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1749 on: June 23, 2021, 06:33:56 AM »

Buffalo and Rochester Mayoral primary results suggest otherwise. Two powerhouse NY Dem. Party Mayors, very "tough on crime" and business-friendly, just collapsed to Democratic Socialist candidates.

Lovely Warren is under federal investigation and her husband is a drug dealer. She had no claim to being "tough on crime" except insofar as she was willing to cover up police malfeasance that reflected poorly on her running riot of an administration. She was, in virtually every respect, the opposite of a law and order candidate.

The Buffalo election appears to have more in common with AOC's victory over Crowley: An energetic, talented challenger winning a low-turnout primary against an assumed-safe longtime incumbent who didn't even bother campaigning, and whose power had come to rely more on his enmeshment with powerful actors within the Democratic Party than with any kind of relationship with his constituents.

Brown also has longstanding corruption issues - including abuses of power like coercing donations to his campaign from city employees and intimidating volunteers for rival campaigns..
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 65 66 67 68 69 [70] 71 72 73 74 75 ... 97  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 12 queries.