NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125692 times)
Donald Wilders
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« Reply #1500 on: June 22, 2021, 12:54:48 AM »

I will be watching live election results of NYC..in NYC haha isn’t that cool? Sadly I did not get to vote and am too shy to even walk into any polling place to see if I can get away with faking an American identity as a prank
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1501 on: June 22, 2021, 01:04:12 AM »

I will be watching live election results of NYC..in NYC haha isn’t that cool? Sadly I did not get to vote and am too shy to even walk into any polling place to see if I can get away with faking an American identity as a prank

Do you say anything interesting
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1502 on: June 22, 2021, 01:28:32 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2021, 11:01:25 PM by khuzifenq »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/

The 5 Political Boroughs Of New York City

The Elite Circles: Manhattan south of Central Park + the hipster parts of Brooklyn and Queens


The True-Blue Bronx: most of the Bronx + the super-Latino part of NW Queens


The Black Bloc: “outer” Brooklyn and “outer” Queens


The Lands of Contradiction: most of Staten Island, the Orthodox Jewish and Chinese parts of Brooklyn, and much of Queens


The Crossroads: Washington Heights (Manhattan) + Bed-Stuy (Brooklyn) + Corona (Queens) + the part of Staten Island where nonwhite people live


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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1503 on: June 22, 2021, 02:00:10 AM »

That 538 article was dumb.  It was just "whites, latinos, and blacks all vote differently, and then here are two areas where they don't vote homogenously."

But 538 in general has basically nothing to offer these days.

I'm really hoping all the negative press down the home stretch will kneecap Adams just like it did Hillary Clinton in 2016.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #1504 on: June 22, 2021, 02:29:43 AM »

Kathryn Garcia is the only candidate I like and I will be rooting hard for her.

Somehow, you and I ended up on the same side in a primary election. Hell has truly frozen over.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1505 on: June 22, 2021, 02:30:47 AM »

Quick question: What day is the NYC Mayoral primary?

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1506 on: June 22, 2021, 03:33:39 AM »

Quick question: What day is the NYC Mayoral primary?

Today.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1507 on: June 22, 2021, 05:35:14 AM »

Hoping Garcia can pull out a win; Adams will definitely get the top spot in initial ranking, but I think Garcia might be able to grab enough #2s to slide ahead. At least hopefully.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1508 on: June 22, 2021, 05:53:00 AM »

Hoping Garcia can pull out a win; Adams will definitely get the top spot in initial ranking, but I think Garcia might be able to grab enough #2s to slide ahead. At least hopefully.

To her credit, she at least has the fact that she's basically everybody's favorite #2 going for her at this point, in that she could end up winning just because there aren't any Anybody-But-Garcia people in the same way that there are Anybody-But-Adams people, Anybody-But-Wiley people, Anybody-But-Yang people, etc. Merely just being hated the least - which is precisely what RCV is kinda meant to help reward - could very well end up being enough for Garcia to clinch the win here.
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warandwar
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« Reply #1509 on: June 22, 2021, 06:43:54 AM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/

The 5 Political Boroughs Of New York City

The Elite Circles: Manhattan south of Central Park + the hipster parts of Brooklyn and Queens


The True-Blue Bronx: most of the Bronx + the super-Latino part of NW Queens


The Black Bloc: “outer” Brooklyn and “outer” Queens


The Lands of Contradiction: most of Staten Island, the Orthodox Jewish and Chinese parts of Brooklyn, and much of Queens


The Crossroads: Washington Heights (Manhattan) + Bed-Stuy (Brooklyn) + Corona (Queens) + the part of Staten Island where nonwhite people live



Interesting!
NOTE: none of this is true
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1510 on: June 22, 2021, 08:51:55 AM »

That 538 article was dumb.  It was just "whites, latinos, and blacks all vote differently, and then here are two areas where they don't vote homogenously."

But 538 in general has basically nothing to offer these days.

I'm really hoping all the negative press down the home stretch will kneecap Adams just like it did Hillary Clinton in 2016.

You know the article was dumb the moment they put the progressive gentrifiers in the same group as Manhattan. Those groups are polar opposites ideologically. Plenty more issues of course, but that is the obvious one.
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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1511 on: June 22, 2021, 09:24:02 AM »

Kathryn Garcia is the only candidate I like and I will be rooting hard for her.

Somehow, you and I ended up on the same side in a primary election. Hell has truly frozen over.

The absolute state of the race that Garcia is becoming the candidate of the left.
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« Reply #1512 on: June 22, 2021, 09:36:43 AM »

This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?
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Storr
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« Reply #1513 on: June 22, 2021, 09:40:47 AM »

"Each week following the election, the votes will be tabulated. The candidate with the lowest number of first-choice votes will be eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are redistributed to each voter’s second-choice candidate, and so on until only two candidates remain. It's unclear how long it will take to count ballots, so it's uncertain how soon a winner can be declared."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nyc-primary-elections-mayoral-race-2021/h_516c2954bc98b52cf65cc705b9098edb

So is each round going to happen weekly or is this article just being vague?
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warandwar
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« Reply #1514 on: June 22, 2021, 09:46:54 AM »

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1515 on: June 22, 2021, 10:04:55 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 10:26:13 AM by Oryxslayer »

This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?

All election day and early in-person first preferences will be known tonight. All absentees and other mail votes are not counted until June 29 as per NY law, which gives 1 week for ballots to arrive that were postmarked on or before Election Day. Voters are also given time to 'cure' their ballot in the event of any defects until July 9. June 29 is when there votes will be entered into the pool. They will start providing weekly updates on the full vote on July 6. Supposedly this puts July 12 as the day of reckoning since all votes will then be in the system. However, this assumes competence and priority on the part of NYC tabulators, and they have not demonstrated either in the past. NYC does have all the city council and borough races as will to enumerate. Checking back on the RCV special elections in the Bronx that happened earlier in the year, it appears that it is the first round votes that take the longest. Once the enumerators have every legal vote from within the time period, then they reallocate and this apparently goes very quickly through software. Allocation will be announced all at once, rather than by round.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1516 on: June 22, 2021, 10:13:06 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 10:33:16 AM by Oryxslayer »

In a similar vein to the previous post, I think we are all unprepared for the Trumpian manner Adams may conduct himself during these next few weeks. He has already displayed hints of it during the cross-endorsement, and the inevitable wanting period will only heighten everyone's nerves. Unless something shocking happens, Adams will win the first round votes counted tonight. We will however get an idea based on comparative turnout by neighborhood and RCV projections if he is in danger of losing that position on the final allocation. Adams has already attacked the RCV process and will likely continue to do so if the data is there for a final round loss. He also could try to claim some legitimacy from his first round victory as if it was the final contest, potentially through an incredibly premature victory party and speech tonight.

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« Reply #1517 on: June 22, 2021, 10:37:32 AM »

Go Wiley, or Garcia, or anyone who isn't Adams!
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« Reply #1518 on: June 22, 2021, 11:07:20 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 11:11:46 AM by UNBEATABLE TITAN WAYNE MESSAM »

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

Could you elaborate? I'd like to hear a little more about that.



BTW The Prediction Thread closes in just over three hours. Finalize your votes!
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Gracile
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« Reply #1519 on: June 22, 2021, 11:10:59 AM »

This mayoral race is a disaster; I’m more interested in the council races (specifically how well DSA candidates will do).
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Skunk
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« Reply #1520 on: June 22, 2021, 11:15:36 AM »

Excited to find out the official results in October!
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1521 on: June 22, 2021, 11:45:29 AM »

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

Could you elaborate? I'd like to hear a little more about that.

From skimming this article- multiracial, heavily Latino and Asian DSA-aligned coalition making gains in Eastern Queens?

https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/6/21/22544534/progressives-push-for-city-council-queens
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warandwar
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« Reply #1522 on: June 22, 2021, 11:57:27 AM »

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

Could you elaborate? I'd like to hear a little more about that.



BTW The Prediction Thread closes in just over three hours. Finalize your votes!
Too many competitive races right now, but i will try to analyze after results are out
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shua
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« Reply #1523 on: June 22, 2021, 01:12:36 PM »

Dear God, as someone who works and volunteers in the mental health field — put a fork in him. He’s over. What an absolutely disgusting mischaracterization of mental illness.

Yeah this isn't a good look for him. I'm pretty sure this is in the context of looking at anti-Asian hate crimes from a mental health perspective though (as opposed to a racial perspective).

Quote from: AAD
If I am being honest, I don't think that bigotry against Asians is much of a problem in general (which is not to say that it doesn't exist or anything like that - it clearly does) and I am also very suspicious of the supposed increase in anti-Asian hate crimes, which strikes me as Stamp's law in action and also, if I am being more honest, a reflection of Asian prejudice against Blacks. If you are looking for racist motives when you previously ignored them, you might suddenly find lots of cases that could be labeled as hate crimes when, really, they are examples of vicious anti-social behavior of criminals who aren't really motivated by racial animus - they just have no values or morals, while also being influenced enough by background racism to say something prejudiced to their victim, even though they'd attack a Mexican woman as soon as they'd attack a Chinese woman. Overall, I view this phenomenon as being similar to the phenomenon of Trump supposedly causing an increasing in racist bullying in schools - I guarantee this was a function of teachers paying more attention. I was constantly called racial slurs in school in the 2000s. I just thought that was normal and thus never talked about it with authority figures.

This is not to dismiss the problems of vicious criminal behavior. Asians are clearly being victimized more and more by crime, which is increasing substantially in some cities. Asians have every reason to be concerned about this. It's important to see it for what it is though: if you think it's driven by racist hatred and not by the motives of anti-social predators, that is pretty likely to cause communalist animosity, increase racial resentment and conflict etc. If you see it for what it actually is, there are easy solutions that can bring people of all backgrounds together: take crime very seriously and work to reduce it using all levers available.



There was a video a couple weeks ago of a black man that hit an Asian woman out of the blue as the two were passing each other.  Seemed pretty obvious from both his speech and his movements that he was in some sort of psychotic episode, whether from a schizo-related disorder or a drug that caused similar symptoms.  But of course because of the races of the people involved it was being investigated as a hate crime.

Far from a usual expression of mental illness, but it is a problem.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1524 on: June 22, 2021, 01:20:38 PM »

Kathryn Garcia is the only candidate I like and I will be rooting hard for her.

Somehow, you and I ended up on the same side in a primary election. Hell has truly frozen over.

I'm surprised you're not supporting Stringer or Wiley.
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