NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

We're so doomed.


Caution of course, as this is Memerson. But bad stuff folks. Please rank Yang 5th to stop Adams.

[SInNYC]

The rankings on this as well as other polls is interesting in that there always seems to be a heavy gender identity factor - ie, people who vote female one round have a strong tendency to vote female in the next round regardless of ideology, and a smaller version for males.

I also dont understand the Wiley-Mcguire movement, which makes no sense to me since its neither identity nor ideology based.

[Real Texan Politics]

The poll has Adams beating Yang 53-47% in the final round.

The only question that matters in these polls.





https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayoral-poll-adams-new-leader-in-nyc-mayor-race-as-field-remains-open

Honestly shocking that Stringer is still doing well even after all the scandals.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The rankings on this as well as other polls is interesting in that there always seems to be a heavy gender identity factor - ie, people who vote female one round have a strong tendency to vote female in the next round regardless of ideology, and a smaller version for males.

I also dont understand the Wiley-Mcguire movement, which makes no sense to me since its neither identity nor ideology based.

I mean, they're both (at least part, in Wiley's case) black.

[Suburbia]

We're so doomed.


Caution of course, as this is Memerson. But bad stuff folks. Please rank Yang 5th to stop Adams.

Yea, stop saying stuff like abolish the police, stop smearing every LEO in NYC, let them do their jobs the right way and arrest people that need to be arrested and acknowledge that there is a crime problem in NYC, you can do police reform and make sensible arrests; being soft on crime is how Giuliani/Bloomberg got elected; Eric Adams will not be Dinkinized.

[LabourJersey]

The poll has Adams beating Yang 53-47% in the final round.

The only question that matters in these polls.





https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayoral-poll-adams-new-leader-in-nyc-mayor-race-as-field-remains-open

Honestly shocking that Stringer is still doing well even after all the scandals.

His durability in the polls suggests to me that had these allegations not existed he would be leading against Yang. He almost certainly would have gotten the NYT endorsement too

[StateBoiler]

The poll has Adams beating Yang 53-47% in the final round.

The only question that matters in these polls.





https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayoral-poll-adams-new-leader-in-nyc-mayor-race-as-field-remains-open

That chart has a very significant flaw. It takes the 22.7% undecided and then equally distributes them to all candidates for R1 based on their "Ballot Test" result. Should've left them out. The R9 result is really 53/47 Adams/Yang, but only among the 77.3% of the electorate that had decided, which not only means that Adams/Yang number is up in the air to a significant degree, but also among who advances on in each round, which matters heavily once you get to the final 4 because of how close the eliminated person is from that point.

[KaiserDave]

The poll has Adams beating Yang 53-47% in the final round.

The only question that matters in these polls.





https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayoral-poll-adams-new-leader-in-nyc-mayor-race-as-field-remains-open

Honestly shocking that Stringer is still doing well even after all the scandals.

His durability in the polls suggests to me that had these allegations not existed he would be leading against Yang. He almost certainly would have gotten the NYT endorsement too

Pre-scandal, I had growing confidence (and at the time, happiness) that Stringer was going to pass Yang. And yes, he would have absolutely gotten the NYT endorsement.

[KaiserDave]

Big News in the Race for Mayor

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/16/nyregion/eric-adams-fund-raising.html

New York Times TEARS into Adams

https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/5/16/22439168/dianne-morales-water-meter-bribe-probe

Dianne Morales in Hot Water

[Skill and Chance]

Yang might blow this after all.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yang might blow this after all.

But he might have blown it a month too early, because now much of the fire will turn on Adams as the new favorite - and there are a LOT of skeletons there.

Really, unless Stringer can bounce back or Garcia can find some real momentum, Yang is probably still the favorite.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hopefully Yang wins.

AOC hating on him makes me want to move to NYC for the purpose of voting for him.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hopefully Yang wins.

AOC hating on him makes me want to move to NYC for the purpose of voting for him.

Well, you may not get your wish.

Adams and Yang are now (as of typing) officially TIED on PredictIt.

Why that happened, I'm not sure. But if I had to guess, either Adams is leading big with fundraising or maybe a poll had him up by double digits against Yang or something.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yang might blow this after all.

But he might have blown it a month too early, because now much of the fire will turn on Adams as the new favorite - and there are a LOT of skeletons there.

Really, unless Stringer can bounce back or Garcia can find some real momentum, Yang is probably still the favorite.

As much as I dislike both of them, I’d much rather take Yang over Adams in half a heartbeat

[adminkrup]

Lol @ this tab from Emerson. Forum won’t let me post links yet but search @mattcastillon on Twitter.

“How Likely are you to Vote in the 2021 Democratic Primary for Mayor of NYC?”

1st choice supporters responding “Very Likely”:

Adams: 95%
Wiley: 98%
Yang: 60%
Stringer: 96%
McGuire: 100%
Donovan: 97%
Morales: 100%
Garcia: 97%

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Lol @ this tab from Emerson. Forum won’t let me post links yet but search @mattcastillon on Twitter.

“How Likely are you to Vote in the 2021 Democratic Primary for Mayor of NYC?”

1st choice supporters responding “Very Likely”:

Adams: 95%
Wiley: 98%
Yang: 60%
Stringer: 96%
McGuire: 100%
Donovan: 97%
Morales: 100%
Garcia: 97%

Yang supporters are very, very dumb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol @ this tab from Emerson. Forum won’t let me post links yet but search @mattcastillon on Twitter.

“How Likely are you to Vote in the 2021 Democratic Primary for Mayor of NYC?”

1st choice supporters responding “Very Likely”:

Adams: 95%
Wiley: 98%
Yang: 60%
Stringer: 96%
McGuire: 100%
Donovan: 97%
Morales: 100%
Garcia: 97%

That is a major yikes.

[StateBoiler]

Not sure how seriously to take poor polling for Yang that for some reason includes a random Asian person with a similar last name.

Well of his 2.5%, Yang gets 2.2% of it.

[Tintrlvr]

Not sure how seriously to take poor polling for Yang that for some reason includes a random Asian person with a similar last name.

Art Chang will be on the ballot, too. They just asked all 11 names that will be on the ballot.

[PSOL]

Yang was always going to win this

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/5thAveSnoozer/status/1395467579406397440

[Suburbia]

We should talk a little bit more about the Republican mayoral field.....

Fernando Mateo is more qualified than the clown Sliwa. Yes, Sliwa is the id of the NYCGOP, but Mateo is a Hispanic man who came from nothing to become a millionaire.....breaking the obstacles....in America...

The American Dream.....

However, he does not live in New York City. From a 2000 article....

MATEO’S fervor has everything to do with his roots.

He came to New York from the Dominican Republic at the age of 2, the youngest in a family of 10 children.

After a stint as a cab driver, Mateo’s father, Kristobal, opened a bodega. Mateo’s mom, Carmen, raised the kids. Mateo fell in with the wrong crowd at Seward Park HS, prompting him to drop out in his sophomore year.

It didn’t stop Mateo.

“I can’t forget where I came from or the people who made me what I am today,” said Mateo, recalling how he started a carpet business as a 17-year-old high-school dropout.

“My first customers were the people living in the housing projects. They trusted me and gave me a chance.”

Through relentless work, his business flourished. He then branched out into construction and, later, a money-wire firm that caters to Dominican immigrants.

Mateo’s up-by-the-bootstraps success story, combined with the publicity over his guns-for-toys program, landed him on Oprah Winfrey’s show twice, and had then-President Bush designate him as one of the nation’s “thousand points of light.”

Today, he lives in a tony house in Irvington, a Westchester suburb, and owns a vacation home in the Dominican Republic, where he travels often with his family – and perhaps harbors some political ambitions.

https://nypost.com/2000/04/19/activist-is-millionaire-with-cause/

Mateo has an apartment in the city, but has a home in suburban Westchester County. A lot of people are like that, they work in NYC and want to run the city, but when they run for office, they don't even live in the city.

Andrew Yang doesn't live in NYC either....

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

-snip-

I mean, we could talk about Lady Gaga’s chances as well, why not?

[Suburbia]

-snip-

I mean, we could talk about Lady Gaga’s chances as well, why not?

Let's talk about the percentage Republicans will get in November...21%, 25%, 27%?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/emilyngo/status/1395812842201354243

And this is precisely why Trump and his allies are able to spread lies about elections. Incompetence and taking forever to get results makes people think that something is wrong with the process.

F**k it. Biden should declare martial law against the state of New York. I'm serious. If they don't get their s**t together? That's how the Capitol gets stormed again.