NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Wiley does seem to be quite dominant in the Queens part of NY-14.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Remember Jon Ossoff?

Ossoff barely lost a general election in a rapidly D-trending district in a rapidly D-trending state.

Yang failed spectacularly in a primary race that was supposed to be his to lose, after already flopping in an overambitious presidential run.

I don’t think it’s comparable.

I don't think there are many scenarios where Yang just waltzs into the New York mayoralty just one year after running for president - too many ambitious Dem officeholders who would run for it too even with its rather diminished and limited potential being what it is. Frankly, people thinking Yang was very, very likely to win clearly didn't understand structurally the way the primary would likely settle in practice, with Yang profitting a lot from his name rec early on only for it to even it out later.
It's not Yang's fault that he had leads very unlikely to be sustained.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm glad that Adams is the probably most likely winner at this point. Yang was my first pick but Adams was clearly a true man of the people to a degree most of his opponents weren't.
Better him than Garcia, who is likely to be his strongest opponent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Eric Adams win Staten Island in the GE?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Eric Adams win Staten Island in the GE?

That's a good question.  Is racial polarization too salient in NYC, or can a diverse conservative-populist coalition be built?

If it counts for anything, Bronz claimed that Adams would win Staten Island if nominated.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good ads?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Levity like this is therapeutic in a time when toxicity can seem to place front-and-center of our politics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Credit where credit is due, AOC is completely right here.
Spanish-language media is very overlooked.