NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[warandwar]

Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN. Extrapolate from there to imagine the train wreck inside.

[warandwar]

She never had a chance of winning but yikes.

... Jumaane really should have run this time, probably the only thing that could have avoided a further right mayor than De Blasio (I consider Stringer around the same as de Blasio ideologically, obviously some differences though).

Jumaane has been planning to run for Governor for over a year now

Yes, Jumaane is exclusively thinking statewide. He's very ambitious

[warandwar]

Imagine what a Morales City Hall would have looked like

Mayhem and incompetence

Garcia is too conservative for my taste but at least she knows how to get things done and keep the wheels running

Incredibly funny to imagine what contract negotiations with DC37 or TWU 100 would have been like.

[warandwar]

I was canvassing for a DSA candidate and a 70 year old West Indian woman told me she appreciated his stances on tenants issues but couldn't vote for him because of Breadtube infighting.

[warandwar]

I was canvassing for a DSA candidate and a 70 year old West Indian woman told me she appreciated his stances on tenants issues but couldn't vote for him because of Breadtube infighting.

Implying they'd vote for him anyway

She said she would. Him and Eric Adams.

[warandwar]

If you have never spent time talking to older folks in Brooklyn, you wouldn't know, but Eric Adams' appeal isn't that he's a LEO, it's that he's been "in the community" for years. He has a good personal network.

[warandwar]

I was canvassing for a DSA candidate and a 70 year old West Indian woman told me she appreciated his stances on tenants issues but couldn't vote for him because of Breadtube infighting.

Implying they'd vote for him anyway

She said she would. Him and Eric Adams.

DSA Electing LEOs Caucus Time

If the DSA wanted, it could probably easily find retired Black police officers who embrace social democratic politics and police reform. If I had to guess, Krasner easily won a majority of retired Black police officer votes.

If you want police reform, it would probably help to have a large number of personnel in police departments who are aligned with your agenda. Activist left often flails around because it sees some of these institutions as being inherently icky. This attitude is absurd.

No, because they are already part of an organized political network (allied w Diana Richardson and Zellnor Myrie). The DSA candidate in Flatbush was pushed out of the race to make way for a retired Haitian cop who had sued the department. This is part of a larger proxy battle over who will inherit Yvette Clarke's congressional seat - Diana Richardson or Rodneyse Bichotte-Herman. Haitians and Flatbush yids vs. Anglophone West Indians and Crown Heights Chabad.

Agreed that you have a leaky brain if you think a single mayoral candidate is worth supporting, honestly. They will all be terrible

[warandwar]

Eric Adams has been endorsed by Midwood Sephardim, Far Rockaway yids, and Crown Heights Chabad recently. Reports of Yang "sweeping" the orthodox "block vote" have been greatly exaggerated.

[warandwar]

I'm still confused as to why Adams is leading this race, and even so with the RCV.

Because he's an established Brooklyn politician with strong links to the black community and an experienced record on the top issue of the campaign?

That "top issue" thing hasn't really impacted him. He's stayed steady while Yang, whose campaign is all about quality of life bullsh**t has dropped. There's plenty of flux but he has remained pretty steady.

[warandwar]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

It's that her solutions are awful. "Confront the developers" as a response to homelessness makes zero sense. It's NIMBY nonsense.

When Stephen Ross is spending millions to influence this race and pushing a very regressive tough on crime message, of course it makes sense. Don't be so dense.

[warandwar]

I voted:
Write-in
Paperboy
Wiley
Almost filled in Garbage Lady but couldnt bring myself to do it.

Very sparse turnout at the Brooklyn Museum. But i got to fist bump the DSA candidate in my district and i told a Corey staffer to eff off.

[warandwar]

The left made a critical error in bashing Yang and not Adams.

Yang is a foolish incompetent, but Adams is dangerous.

Can you explain this to me? "The left" is certainly bashing Adams right now, with Our City and all that. There were big meetings to coordinate anti-Yang and anti-Adams messaging like 2 months ago. You're not going to be able to escape it, soon enough!
As a city employee, i personally think Yang will be a worse boss for me than Adams lol.

[warandwar]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

[warandwar]

The left made a critical error in bashing Yang and not Adams.

Yang is a foolish incompetent, but Adams is dangerous.

Can you explain this to me? "The left" is certainly bashing Adams right now, with Our City and all that. There were big meetings to coordinate anti-Yang and anti-Adams messaging like 2 months ago. You're not going to be able to escape it, soon enough!
As a city employee, i personally think Yang will be a worse boss for me than Adams lol.

I think they’re refering to Adams being “out there” with that “give Teachers a village to teach” comment

Adams is weird in an everyday way. I could imagine a coworker saying that. Makes him more relateable, imho.

[warandwar]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I'll admit Wiley has said some dumb stuff before, but there's nothing wrong with this. I don't even see how this is bad, confronting the housing crisis and police reform are both very noble goals.

Wiley is blaming developers for the homeless crisis. That's woefully inaccurate.

Do you live in new york city? Developers certainly play a role here - see Desmond's work on the "eviction crisis."

I'm not too inclined to finger developers as the big villains of this story. But then again I'm a market urbanist...

Talk to some of those developers' tenants (and former tenants) and see what you think. NYC landlords are some heinous creatures.

[warandwar]

The idea that there's "pervasive NIMBYism" when nearly every single rezoning sails through is a sign that you are taking a one size fits all square peg and trying to fit it into new york's round hole. Next thing i know, you're going to be decrying the single family zoning in Midtown. From the mid 90s to 2019 there was a massive legal financial incentive to evict longtime working class residents out of rent stabilized housing, chop up the units and churn through younger renters till you got an unregulated building. And research has shown that high evictions are a precursor to displacement. So i think developers have a clear role here.

[warandwar]

Wiley does not want to abolish police. She is too anti-poor to believe in that.

[warandwar]

There's also a decent chance that Asian-American and Orthodox/non-Satmar areas of the city - where Yang has been working hard to build support - turn out more heavily. They're hard to poll and could surprise. I'd still give Yang slightly better odds to surprise than Wiley, who needs to eat significantly into Adams' and Garcia's bases to have a shot.

"Orthodox/non-Satmar" - Yang has the majority of Satmars, while Adams has Flatbush, Midwood, Far Rockaway, and Crown Heights. So it's a wash.

[warandwar]

Paperboy Prince is literally a grifter and an ex-Yang Ganger who runs an art gallery in Bushwick that uses mutual aid as a publicity stunt. I preferenced him ahead of Wiley.

[warandwar]

I actually think backroom deals on preferences are not very democratic. Maybe not racist, but it is still pretty skeezy what Yang and Garcia did...
I think RCV has been a failure here in NYC - at least in terms of stated goals (less negative campaigning, fx)

Edit: my top 3 most likely to win 1. Adams, 2. Wiley, 3. Garcia
I would rather have Wiley or Adams over Garcia, I think.

I do not have a way of ujderstanding why so many of you dislile Adams outside of the way that he represents a certain type of outer boro black politics that is absolutely alien to most of you.

[warandwar]

A major issue was that RCV was brought in by some technocratic eggheads who nestled it in a very low turnout election between incredibly vague questions that ensured voters instinctively voted yes for all 4. Rigged election. If you want to change the voting system you need popular support for it.

[warandwar]

Worked in the real sticks today - by redfern houses in Far Rock. Only signs visible were McGuire and Wiley - should tell you something about Wiley's field reach (1199 doesnt play around)

[warandwar]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/

The 5 Political Boroughs Of New York City

The Elite Circles: Manhattan south of Central Park + the hipster parts of Brooklyn and Queens


The True-Blue Bronx: most of the Bronx + the super-Latino part of NW Queens


The Black Bloc: “outer” Brooklyn and “outer” Queens


The Lands of Contradiction: most of Staten Island, the Orthodox Jewish and Chinese parts of Brooklyn, and much of Queens


The Crossroads: Washington Heights (Manhattan) + Bed-Stuy (Brooklyn) + Corona (Queens) + the part of Staten Island where nonwhite people live

Interesting!
NOTE: none of this is true

[warandwar]

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

[warandwar]

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

Could you elaborate? I'd like to hear a little more about that.


BTW The Prediction Thread closes in just over three hours. Finalize your votes!

Too many competitive races right now, but i will try to analyze after results are out