NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[President Johnson]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

[brucejoel99]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

[Stuart98]

So .. when are we expecting results?

[brucejoel99]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

But when will we get the results that are the actual real results and not the fair real results with the bogus ballots?? ^(/s)

[Oryxslayer]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

But when will we get the results that are the actual real results and not the fair real results with the bogus ballots?? ^(/s)

Next week, when we discover the three warehouses of uncounted Paperboy Prince votes.

[Pink Panther]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

Knowing this state, probably another month.

[Tintrlvr]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

It's *possible* that someone with inside knowledge is betting on Adams. There is, generally speaking, nothing preventing someone who works at the BOE and knows the results from betting on them before the results are made public. You can see that happening sometimes in the immediate aftermath of poll closings or shortly before results announcements - especially when results are released as a large batch. (UK by-election betting is notorious for huge last-second swings to the the party that wins before the result is announced since they release all in one go so insiders can make a big profit.) However, I do tend to agree that it's probably a thinly traded market with values based on nothing.

[brucejoel99]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

It's *possible* that someone with inside knowledge is betting on Adams. There is, generally speaking, nothing preventing someone who works at the BOE and knows the results from betting on them before the results are made public. You can see that happening sometimes in the immediate aftermath of poll closings or shortly before results announcements - especially when results are released as a large batch. (UK by-election betting is notorious for huge last-second swings to the the party that wins before the result is announced since they release all in one go so insiders can make a big profit.) However, I do tend to agree that it's probably a thinly traded market with values based on nothing.

Yeah, it's technically possible, but this rise in Adams has maintained itself since his campaign put out that now-incorrect memo a few days back, & just has yet to revert because - at least going off of the comment section - many Adams holders are just convinced that it can't be anything but Adams at this point, even when you have people like Nate Cohn - whose own paper got their hands on that partial Manhattan data, & maybe more for all we know - saying that all of this is insane.

[Suburbia]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

How is it a failure? You know normal elections can have a lot of absentee ballots too, right?

(And yes, it does work well in Maine.)

[Oryxslayer]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1412473215478341635?s=20

Don't like quoting Dave, especially since he's shifting blame here from the fact that he played a part of sowing doubt in the system, but its a good enough response for a Bronz-post.

[Babeuf]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

It worked fine. The BOE's mistakes don't have anything to do with RCV, it's just their usual incompetence.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

How is it a failure? You know normal elections can have a lot of absentee ballots too, right?

(And yes, it does work well in Maine.)

A lot of people are using New York extraordinary incompetent elections to try and prove RCV is somehow flawed, ignoring Maine, San Fran, Berkeley, Oakland, Takoma Park, Cambridge, Amherst, Minneapolis, St. Paul..

[wbrocks67]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

It's *possible* that someone with inside knowledge is betting on Adams. There is, generally speaking, nothing preventing someone who works at the BOE and knows the results from betting on them before the results are made public. You can see that happening sometimes in the immediate aftermath of poll closings or shortly before results announcements - especially when results are released as a large batch. (UK by-election betting is notorious for huge last-second swings to the the party that wins before the result is announced since they release all in one go so insiders can make a big profit.) However, I do tend to agree that it's probably a thinly traded market with values based on nothing.

Yeah, it's technically possible, but this rise in Adams has maintained itself since his campaign put out that now-incorrect memo a few days back, & just has yet to revert because - at least going off of the comment section - many Adams holders are just convinced that it can't be anything but Adams at this point, even when you have people like Nate Cohn - whose own paper got their hands on that partial Manhattan data, & maybe more for all we know - saying that all of this is insane.

It also seems like people are planning on buying a bunch of Adams and then dumping it at the last moment?

[wbrocks67]

It's past 5PM ET now...

[Tintrlvr]

It's past 5PM ET now...

They're just out at a late Tuesday afternoon brunch.

[wbrocks67]

This is ridiculous. How do you plan on releasing them at 'brunch' time and then go from that to 7:30?

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1412519019228377089

[new_patomic]

It's past 5PM ET now...

They're just out at a late Tuesday afternoon brunch.

Must have been one boozy brunch

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Big brain conspiracy idea;

What if this is all De Blasio’s doing so he can declare martial law and remain mayor indefinitely

No I will not be taking questions

[brucejoel99]

Crazy theory but not that crazy since it's the BOE, but I'm thinking that they (obviously) already know what these results show - a Garcia victory - while also knowing that if they put out such results with any hint of a mistake whatsoever, then the Adams camp will cry fraud as loud as they can, leading BOE to quadruple-check literally everything just to make sure.

Thoughts?

[Torie]

Crazy theory but not that crazy since it's the BOE, but I'm thinking that they (obviously) already know what these results show - a Garcia victory - while also knowing that if they put out such results with any hint of a mistake whatsoever, then the Adams camp will cry fraud as loud as they can, leading BOE to quadruple-check literally everything just to make sure.

Thoughts?

Possible, particularly if the count is close. But it may be that the processing of the absentees is going slower than anticipated.

That said, the "brunch" comment makes one wonder: "what is going on here?"

[Tintrlvr]

Crazy theory but not that crazy since it's the BOE, but I'm thinking that they (obviously) already know what these results show - a Garcia victory - while also knowing that if they put out such results with any hint of a mistake whatsoever, then the Adams camp will cry fraud as loud as they can, leading BOE to quadruple-check literally everything just to make sure.

Thoughts?

Possible, particularly if the count is close. But it may be that the processing of the absentees is going slower than anticipated.

It feels like they must already have everything processed and they are just doing checks. My guess is that they found a mistake in their check this morning and that is what is delaying them: rechecking everything again. Doesn't say anything about the results.

I suppose it's also possible that we're in recount territory for either the last round or the second-to-last round and they want to be confident.

I doubt they have a feeling about the winner one way or another. If anything these sorts of swamp creatures would probably prefer Adams...

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/06/nyregion/nyc-mayor-race#the-elections-board-resets-its-deadline-again-promising-results-by-730-pm-eastern

[Oryxslayer]

BOW has updated. Adams lead of about 8500.

Clear Garcia lead of 10K over Wiley on round 7. Richards leads by 1K in Queens President race, Fossela by 300 in GOP Staten Island President race.