NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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October 20, 2021, 06:27:10 AM

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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 71246 times)
Adams
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« Reply #2100 on: July 01, 2021, 08:16:03 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

You get that--for better or worse--nobody has a bigger vested interest in making New York more affordable than Manhattan renters, right? The opposite applies to outer borough homeowners regardless of class.

Although if you really wish you based your vote on whoever got the fewest first prefs in Chelsea, Yang was your guy.

Nah, when you have a trust fund you don't care. These people were more upset about temporary COVID housing for homeless people being near their UWS walkup than about the average rent.

Yang is just Garcia's sidekick.
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NYDem
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« Reply #2101 on: July 01, 2021, 11:38:49 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!
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Adams
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« Reply #2102 on: July 01, 2021, 11:53:20 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2103 on: July 02, 2021, 12:52:58 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2021, 12:56:24 AM by Zaybay »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.

You haven't bothered to read into the platforms of any of the candidates, huh?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2104 on: July 02, 2021, 08:35:30 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2105 on: July 02, 2021, 09:42:05 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2106 on: July 02, 2021, 09:55:57 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2107 on: July 02, 2021, 09:58:04 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?

Yeah, we’re expected to get the updated RCV count at the same time that issue-less absentees are entered into the count. Theoretically, this could all be over on Tuesday 7/6, but that’d require there being no more ballots facing a curing issue of some kind, which is unrealistic.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2108 on: July 02, 2021, 11:29:33 AM »



Round 6 (Big 3 + Yang) estimation



Round 7 (Big 3) estimation



Round 8 (Garcia v Adams) estimation

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Skunk
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« Reply #2109 on: July 02, 2021, 11:57:05 AM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.
So I'm guessing you supported Joseph Crowley then too, right?
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #2110 on: July 02, 2021, 12:05:34 PM »

Gorgeous maps!
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2111 on: July 02, 2021, 12:24:57 PM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?

Yeah, we’re expected to get the updated RCV count at the same time that issue-less absentees are entered into the count. Theoretically, this could all be over on Tuesday 7/6, but that’d require there being no more ballots facing a curing issue of some kind, which is unrealistic.

The number of ballots still subject to curing should be quite low. Not zero, but not enough to make a difference unless the final result is within a few hundred votes at most.
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Tsaiite
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« Reply #2112 on: July 02, 2021, 12:53:50 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2021, 01:44:39 AM by Tsaiite »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

You get that--for better or worse--nobody has a bigger vested interest in making New York more affordable than Manhattan renters, right? The opposite applies to outer borough homeowners regardless of class.

Although if you really wish you based your vote on whoever got the fewest first prefs in Chelsea, Yang was your guy.

Nah, when you have a trust fund you don't care. These people were more upset about temporary COVID housing for homeless people being near their UWS walkup than about the average rent.

Yang is just Garcia's sidekick.

Believe it or not, the 1.6 million generally normal people in Manhattan don't all have trust fund. And even if they did, they still have a clear financial incentive to spend less on rent and more on...whatever people with trust funds like to buy.

There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it.
She literally is though. That's the whole point. If a couple of people who have a vested interest in preventing that supported her--which again, really doesn't characterize the average Manhattanite--I guess they got duped. And it isn't like she got 80% in the UES or something. If anything, the stereotype of these people you keep bringing up is a McGuire voter as revealed by precinct results uptown. The average Garcia supporter is...a NYU professor or paper pusher at a publishing house. A bit privileged and obtuse? Yeah, probably. Part of the vast millionaire conspiracy to stop new housing? Not at all.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #2113 on: July 02, 2021, 01:20:18 PM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2114 on: July 02, 2021, 04:31:16 PM »



Not everything is doom and gloom.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2115 on: July 02, 2021, 06:48:20 PM »

Bragg winning is amazing. Just amazing.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #2116 on: July 02, 2021, 07:24:31 PM »

Absentees are looking good for Garcia.

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Adams
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« Reply #2117 on: July 02, 2021, 07:24:48 PM »

Bragg winning is amazing. Just amazing.

The Hillary Clinton golden touch at evidence once again.
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Adams
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« Reply #2118 on: July 02, 2021, 07:28:08 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.

You haven't bothered to read into the platforms of any of the candidates, huh?

As I said in my comment that was infracted for possibly valid reasons last night, I obviously have as anyone who voted should have. I just question whether Garcia will prioritize that. Almost every candidate, more or less, had a similar housing policy.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2119 on: July 02, 2021, 08:01:58 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!
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Suburbia
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« Reply #2120 on: July 02, 2021, 08:57:43 PM »

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2121 on: July 02, 2021, 09:04:04 PM »



Pray for efficiency, but expect the expectable.
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Adams
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« Reply #2122 on: July 02, 2021, 09:26:23 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!

Bloomberg 2.0, the candidate of the "Upper West Siders for Safer Streets" crowd.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2123 on: July 02, 2021, 09:32:06 PM »

Does Adams run a write in campaign?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2124 on: July 02, 2021, 09:36:00 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2021, 09:39:24 PM by Oryxslayer »

NYC BOE has updated the RCV site with non-absentee projections for the offices of Borough Presidents and City Council.

The estimated final RCV rounds of Democratic Borough Presidential races subject to RCV:

Queens President: 51.1% Richards, 48.9% Crowley

Bronx President: 53% Gibson, 47% Cabrera

Brooklyn President: 55.3% Reynoso, 44.7% Simon

Manhattan President: 54.4% Levine, 45.6% Hoylman  

Staten Island President: 65.4% Murphy, 34.6% Honor


I would love it if someone more in the know than myself could go through all the city council projections that are now up there. These races are more interesting, but arguably require more background info.



Fossella in a close AF race that will be decided by absentees.

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