NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125624 times)
brucejoel99
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« Reply #2100 on: July 03, 2021, 01:52:51 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2101 on: July 03, 2021, 01:58:20 PM »

It's really annoying this takes so long.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2102 on: July 03, 2021, 03:28:47 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.

They're trying to say that the absentee ballots that have been processed thru so far are unimpressive for Garcia, which A) would go against conventional wisdom, B) did not seem the case from the 24K or whatever it was that were talked about and C) they haven't all been formally counted yet
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jaichind
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« Reply #2103 on: July 03, 2021, 03:30:28 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.

They're trying to say that the absentee ballots that have been processed thru so far are unimpressive for Garcia, which A) would go against conventional wisdom, B) did not seem the case from the 24K or whatever it was that were talked about and C) they haven't all been formally counted yet

Perhaps the punter logic is that the second and third preference votes will not be as favorable for Garcia vis-a-vis Adams as the in day votes.
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Babeuf
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« Reply #2104 on: July 03, 2021, 03:55:38 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.

They're trying to say that the absentee ballots that have been processed thru so far are unimpressive for Garcia, which A) would go against conventional wisdom, B) did not seem the case from the 24K or whatever it was that were talked about and C) they haven't all been formally counted yet

Perhaps the punter logic is that the second and third preference votes will not be as favorable for Garcia vis-a-vis Adams as the in day votes.
This is very possible, especially for Yang voters (if the absentees were sent before the alliance).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2105 on: July 03, 2021, 03:59:39 PM »
« Edited: July 05, 2021, 01:59:08 PM by Oryxslayer »

There's this spin going around from the Adams campaign (which some have bought) that their campaign watchers say Adams is on track to net votes from first preference absentees. But Adams would almost always net votes. It would have to be a huge divergence from the E-Day first round results to have anyone else come in first in Absentees. What matters of course is under/overperformance, and Garcia seems to be overperforming by enough.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #2106 on: July 03, 2021, 04:26:27 PM »

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?
This isn't the early 90s, I doubt people care about Dinkins enough to make a difference for Adams. Also I have to think that alot of the older people who didn't like Dinkins are probably republicans now(locally) or have moderated their views since then.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #2107 on: July 04, 2021, 07:03:27 PM »

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?
This isn't the early 90s, I doubt people care about Dinkins enough to make a difference for Adams. Also I have to think that alot of the older people who didn't like Dinkins are probably republicans now(locally) or have moderated their views since then.

A lot of white voters that still live in NYC despise Dinkins....when they see a Black mayoral candidate, it reminds them of Dinkins....

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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #2108 on: July 04, 2021, 11:47:23 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Betting markets aren't the end-all be-all
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Torrain
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« Reply #2109 on: July 05, 2021, 01:52:16 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Betting markets aren't the end-all be-all

Exactly. If you want proof, just ask President Michelle Obama (2016-20), and the other candidates who climb the rankings every four years, despite never even declaring a run.
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Crane
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« Reply #2110 on: July 05, 2021, 02:10:50 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Betting markets aren't the end-all be-all

Exactly. If you want proof, just ask President Michelle Obama (2016-20), and the other candidates who climb the rankings every four years, despite never even declaring a run.

She wasn't leading after the elections for those respective years, though.

Still a tossup, it's a mistake to rule Adams out.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2111 on: July 05, 2021, 02:22:09 PM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Betting markets aren't the end-all be-all

Exactly. If you want proof, just ask President Michelle Obama (2016-20), and the other candidates who climb the rankings every four years, despite never even declaring a run.

She wasn't leading after the elections for those respective years, though.

Still a tossup, it's a mistake to rule Adams out.

Oh, I'm definitely not counting Adams out. I'm only just coming around to the idea that Garcia might be favoured.

Tbh, I'm just really sceptical that the betting markets have identified relevant new information, and think they're just bouncing around in a vacuum, making vague predictions while they wait for the results like the rest of us.

I've got a lot of thoughts about how betting markets get used among political junkies, but that probably deserves it's own thread some time. I think that some posters give them a level of respect typically reserved for polling, even though the average political betting pool has about the same weight/accuracy as an Atlas user poll on 'who'll win MO-SEN 2018?"
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2112 on: July 06, 2021, 05:32:04 AM »

Hopefully we get a swift Garcia announcement this afternoon Smiley
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bronz4141
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« Reply #2113 on: July 06, 2021, 09:00:39 AM »

If Garcia wins, she really needs to connect with Black voters.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #2114 on: July 06, 2021, 09:13:09 AM »

Wait... there still no final result? LOL! NY is a banana republic when it comes to holding election.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #2115 on: July 06, 2021, 09:45:36 AM »

Wait... there still no final result? LOL! NY is a banana republic when it comes to holding election.

The final (or hopefully almost-final) result is expected to be announced today. The only votes that won’t be included in today’s total are the absentee ballots with curing issues, of which we don’t know how many there will be or for whom.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2116 on: July 06, 2021, 11:37:17 AM »

Betting odds are now Adams 64%, Garcia 24%.

I will LOVE if Garcia wins and the betting markets are proven ridiculous after all (though they also had Susan Rice as the #1 pick for VP the day Kamala was announced, so..)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2117 on: July 06, 2021, 11:41:47 AM »

Betting odds are now Adams 64%, Garcia 24%.

I will LOVE if Garcia wins and the betting markets are proven ridiculous after all (though they also had Susan Rice as the #1 pick for VP the day Kamala was announced, so..)

Buy some Garcia then. I personally view them as fronts for pure speculation, with most of the investor profits coming from short-term market flux rather than holding onto shares for eventual payout. The pump-and-dump nature of these sites basically means nobody can be taken at face value...and hell a good check of Adams buyers right now could just be holding until the news cycle changes when they dump for Garcia.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2118 on: July 06, 2021, 12:47:30 PM »



So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2119 on: July 06, 2021, 12:48:29 PM »



So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.

ugh watch the margin be under that lmao
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #2120 on: July 06, 2021, 12:50:17 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2021, 01:00:07 PM by beaver2.0 »



So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.

ugh watch the margin be under that lmao
Given that this is New York I'm sure it will.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #2121 on: July 06, 2021, 01:18:26 PM »

https://twitter.com/brigidbergin/status/1412467763625533443
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2122 on: July 06, 2021, 01:20:06 PM »



So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.

ugh watch the margin be under that lmao
Given that this is New York I'm sure it will.

I think it's more likely than not that the margin after today's dump will be under 3,699 (the number of ballots under dispute). However, unless the margin after today's dump is under 500, it's highly unlikely that 3,699 ballots could change the result.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2123 on: July 06, 2021, 01:46:49 PM »

This news certainly calls the validity of the Adams campaign's spin-memo into question:

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Skunk
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« Reply #2124 on: July 06, 2021, 02:00:52 PM »

They're delaying announcing the results because they're busy rigging it for the rightful next mayor of New York City, Paperboy Prince.
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