NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Gracile]

I don’t see that much of an issue with the count taking a bit more time if it means getting an accurate result, but it doesn’t make any sense to not count the absentee first-round votes before doing RCV tabulation (which it seems like NYC is going to do). This is far more important and would have a much more significant impact on the final result.

[Stuart98]

Maybe this will wake people up on why RCV is a garbage voting system. It only entrenches the elite of any area it is in.

At least there's a case for a runoff system. Winning a primary with 30% of the vote in a field of multiple candidates is hardly a mandate.

There's a case for a system that doesn't restrict you to only supporting a single candidate in an election, but that system doesn't have to involve a runoff, automatic or otherwise.

[Skill and Chance]

If Garcia > Adams and Adams > Wiley are both true, then we could well be looking at one of two non-monotonic scenarios in this election:

If Garcia > Wiley in the penultimate round, then a couple percentage points of Adams supporters dishonestly voting for Wiley instead of Adams could have caused an Adams victory (if Adams' final round margin over Wiley would have been greater than Garcia's margin over Wiley in the penultimate round).

If Wiley > Garcia in the penultimate round, then a couple percentage points of Wiley supporters dishonestly voting for Adams instead of Wiley could have caused an Adams defeat (if Garcia's final round margin over Adams would have been greater than Wiley's margin over Garcia in the penultimate round).

See, this is what I'm talking about here.  Try explaining this **** to someone who only casually follows politics and has never studied math beyond algebra.  Combine it with the famously slow pace of counting in NYC and the first time the result changes in a high-profile race, the conspiracy theories will never end!

I think runoffs are a great check on extreme base oriented candidates, but just have a normal second round between the top 2 that can be explained in one sentence.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1409958078980763650?s=20


With 123K absentee ballots left to be counted, Garcia has to net 16K over Adams to defeat him. Looks like it may actually happen.

[Matty]

Wow....why did so many commentators and orgs act like adams had it won?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Oh wow. That's tight. Looks like Garcia did really well with Wiley and Yang's carryovers. That cross-endorsement with Yang may put Garcia over the finish line.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Complete and total fraud job by the people of the Hamptons to steal this election from the real people of New York clearly in motion. Toss the absentees of these fake residents in the trash. Those who actually live there had no issue showing up.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1409958043668807685

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow. So Garcia might actually have this.

[Matty]

Soooo....the person who finished f'n third in the election may end up winning?

That isn't democracy.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Let's not rule out that Wiley could make it into the final round given how close Round 10 is. Any idea where the rest of the absentees are coming from? I saw someone on Twitter say Manhattan, where Garcia won.

[H. Ross Peron]

Peru moment.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Garcia overtook Adams in the PredictIt market.

[Jeppe]

Let's not rule out that Wiley could make it into the final round given how close Round 10 is. Any idea where the rest of the absentees are coming from? I saw someone on Twitter say Manhattan, where Garcia won.

1) Absentees are disproportionately in areas where Garcia won (31% of absentees are in districts where Garcia won, compared to the 19% she got in the first round).
2) Garcia overperformed in the in-person early voting bucket, placing 2nd behind Adams by only 2 points. Adams won election day vote by 15+ points but it seems quite likely that absentee ballots will look more like the early vote bucket rather than the e-day bucket.

[emailking]

Those numbers are interesting but ultimately meaningless, it's possible (at least in principle) that they won't even be the top 2 when absentees are factored in.

Soooo....the person who finished f'n third in the election may end up winning?

That isn't democracy.

No because that's not how elections should be done, and that's not how this election was done. If she wins, she finished first, not 3rd.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow....why did so many commentators and orgs act like adams had it won?

People like Wasserman just assumed he had it in the bag solely because he held a double digit lead over Garcia in the first round. That's pretty much it.

[Sestak]

KEIKO ADAMS IN DISARRAY

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1408079937123217410?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah I think Garcia will win this based off what wed know about the absentees.

Also tight race between Lander and Johnson for Comptroller.

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful. Just one RCV election and it looks like the corrupt machine establishment is immediately vanquished!!

Also, the guys over at DFP are once again totally and completely vindicated. The GOLD STANDARD (in Democratic primaries; garbage in general elections).

[Ferguson97]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

[Lognog]

Soooo....the person who finished f'n third in the election may end up winning?

That isn't democracy.

POV: you have no idea what ranked choice voting is

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I am confident in the prediction that Adams wins by less than a percent

[GALeftist]

Wow, what a comeback. I guess Wasserman needs much more experience with RCV lol

Also, if Garcia pulls it out, Adams #StopTheSteal incoming. You heard it here first, folks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone laugh.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1407590652939014146?s=21