NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1850 on: June 28, 2021, 11:40:16 AM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1851 on: June 28, 2021, 12:36:07 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Interesting. DFP isn't the best overall pollster - especially when it comes to areas with a significant rural contingent - but nobody can deny their ability to model Democratic primary electorates.
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shua
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« Reply #1852 on: June 28, 2021, 01:21:46 PM »

Comments from 2018 about Hasids coming back to bite Sliwa

https://nypost.com/2021/06/25/gop-mayoral-hopeful-sliwa-blasted-orthodox-jews-in-bigoted-rant-video-shows/
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Republican mayoral nominee Curtis Sliwa made bigoted generalizations about Jews in a 2018 videotaped rant in which he accused the ultra-orthodox community in New York of making “babies like there’s no tomorrow,” not voting “the way normal Americans vote” and being abusers of welfare.

At the time, Sliwa said the Reform Party, which he headed, would only endorse candidates who agreed to oppose “the bloc” — which he identified as the ultra-orthodox leadership and their followers.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-non-apology-nyc-republican-mayoral-candidate-rejects-antisemitism-accusation/
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The Guardian Angels founder declined to apologize in the video shared with the media, instead inviting Orthodox Jews to sit down with him to “resolve our differences.” He also reminded potential supporters of his work on behalf of Jews.

“My two youngest sons have been raised Jewish. They need to read this? To say to themselves, my father is an antisemite? Come on, even my worst critics out there would recognize that’s a shanda,” said Sliwa, who became the Republican nominee for mayor on Tuesday. “So I’ll reach out to meet with you and hopefully we’ll be able to resolve our differences.”
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1853 on: June 28, 2021, 01:23:58 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1854 on: June 28, 2021, 01:27:57 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1855 on: June 28, 2021, 02:39:08 PM »

So, after all is said and done, how public will the ballots be? Will there be an enumeration of each set of rankings, or is that held private? Seems like it should be public information, but I can't find anything either way.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1856 on: June 28, 2021, 04:20:11 PM »

Do we know what time the RCV simulations are being dumped tomorrow? Also aren't absentees going to start reporting tomorrow as well?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1857 on: June 28, 2021, 04:22:20 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1858 on: June 28, 2021, 05:49:41 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2021, 08:25:59 AM by 306 »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

We'll find out, I guess. Would be really bittersweet if Garcia looks like she would win the final round but gets pipped by Wiley in the second-to-last round, as I think DFP have the two exactly tied in the second-to-last round. I suspect DFP is overstating Yang transfers to Garcia, though - she should be dominant with Asian Yang voters but I have to imagine the ultra-Orthodox Yang vote transfers mostly to Adams, and DFP may just not have enough ultra-Orthodox voters in their sample.

On the other hand, they seem to have started with the election night results, without absentees, but Garcia should be a little higher (and Adams in particular a bit lower) once absentees are counted.

So, after all is said and done, how public will the ballots be? Will there be an enumeration of each set of rankings, or is that held private? Seems like it should be public information, but I can't find anything either way.

They're going to release all of the tabulations at the same time. Each round will be public, but they won't be releasing tabulations round-by-round.

Seems like a classic case of trying to have your cake and eat it too.  Want to adopt RCV so a winner has to get 50% but you want every ballot to also count, so you have to wait days for any ballot postmarked on time to arrive rather than making sure people hit a certain cutoff point in the mail so their ballot is received.

Ridiculous how long it is taking to count all of this and declare a winner.

It's a stupid state law that has nothing to do with RCV that prevents them from counting absentee ballots yet, for what it's worth.

You probably should have all of your ballots in to run RCV calculations in case it changes results in an earlier round in a way that affects the final result (in particular, see the DFP calculations that suggest that Garcia and Wiley will be almost exactly tied in the second-to-last round -- imagine the chaos if they report Adams would win a top two vs. Wiley and then a week later have to say, wait, actually Garcia beats Wiley to the top two and wins against Adams), but that shouldn't prevent release of first-round results.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1859 on: June 28, 2021, 07:11:35 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.

How? That’s how RCV works. Nothing fraudulent about it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1860 on: June 28, 2021, 07:25:53 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.

How? That’s how RCV works. Nothing fraudulent about it.

Of course. But people don't think past the headlines and Adams has a interest in raising distrust in the process - see the posts before polls closed last week for examples of this.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1861 on: June 28, 2021, 07:27:22 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.

How? That’s how RCV works. Nothing fraudulent about it.

Of course. But people don't think past the headlines and Adams has a interest in raising distrust in the process - see the posts before polls closed last week for examples of this.

"Something something 'RCV is racist.'" - the Adams camp if/when he were to lose.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1862 on: June 28, 2021, 07:34:51 PM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

If this actually happens (Garcia overtaking Adams in the final round from 3rd place in the initial count), it will be "Stop the Steal" on steroids, rivaling the Florida 2000 level of controversy.

How? That’s how RCV works. Nothing fraudulent about it.

Of course. But people don't think past the headlines and Adams has a interest in raising distrust in the process - see the posts before polls closed last week for examples of this.

Difference is that no one feels so strongly in favor of Adams (especially against Garcia; some might feel so strongly against Wiley) that they would actually do anything for him, and if Adams started appearing with true national Republicans on the issue, he'd instantly lose many of his voters' support.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1863 on: June 28, 2021, 09:02:31 PM »

No one cares about Adams as a person, but there will be a huge controversy in the black community if he "suddenly" loses. This election crystallized as one between competing racial blocks in the last few weeks. This is especially true if the DFP poll is to be believed (the white/black polarization in a Garcia/Adams final round are like something out of the Deep South!), but even in the first round Adams was at like 70-80% in uniformly black precincts. And Adams' closing argument was a very unsubtle call for racial solidarity. It'll look like the rich white(-Asian) establishment stole the election from them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1864 on: June 28, 2021, 09:04:49 PM »


You probably should have all of your ballots in to run RCV calculations in case it changes results in an earlier round in a way that affects the final result (in particular, see the DFP calculations that suggest that Garcia and Wiley will be almost exactly tied in the second-to-last round -- imagine the chaos if they report Adams would win a top two vs. Wiley and then a week later have to say, wait, actually Garcia beats Wiley to the top two and wins against Adams), but that shouldn't prevent release of first-round results.

If would be hysterical if  Adams beats  Wiley in the RCV final round but after some more ballots are cured if shifts Adam's final round opponent from  Wiley to Garcia who went on to beat Adams.  I think the Adam's camp cry of fraud would go on for weeks if not months.
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PSOL
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« Reply #1865 on: June 28, 2021, 09:13:10 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2021, 09:47:30 PM by PSOL »

Maybe this will wake people up on why RCV is a garbage voting system. It only entrenches the elite of any area it is in.
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Donerail
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« Reply #1866 on: June 28, 2021, 09:43:42 PM »

Maybe this will wake people up on why RCV is a garbage voting system. It only entrenches the elite of any area it is in.
Just to make sure we're on the same page, the "anti-elite" option here is the longtime State Senator and Brooklyn Borough President backed by most of the notable local establishment?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1867 on: June 29, 2021, 02:13:34 AM »

If Garcia > Adams and Adams > Wiley are both true, then we could well be looking at one of two non-monotonic scenarios in this election:

If Garcia > Wiley in the penultimate round, then a couple percentage points of Adams supporters dishonestly voting for Wiley instead of Adams could have caused an Adams victory (if Adams' final round margin over Wiley would have been greater than Garcia's margin over Wiley in the penultimate round).

If Wiley > Garcia in the penultimate round, then a couple percentage points of Wiley supporters dishonestly voting for Adams instead of Wiley could have caused an Adams defeat (if Garcia's final round margin over Adams would have been greater than Wiley's margin over Garcia in the penultimate round).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1868 on: June 29, 2021, 08:33:12 AM »

Pardon my confusion, but I'm still not sure what we're getting today? Can someone explain (and when we're getting absentees/are they being dumped all at once)

+ what time we're expecting anything today?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1869 on: June 29, 2021, 08:56:21 AM »

Pardon my confusion, but I'm still not sure what we're getting today? Can someone explain (and when we're getting absentees/are they being dumped all at once)

+ what time we're expecting anything today?

Nobody really knows for sure. The NYC BOE said end of day, though.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #1870 on: June 29, 2021, 09:14:04 AM »

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

If I'm not misreading it somehow, there is at least one error in their mayoral simulation - in round 5 they eliminate Stringer instead of Donovan even though Stringer is higher.

While this is unlikely to affect the results of their simulation, it does call into question their entire results if they make such an obvious error.
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20RP12
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« Reply #1871 on: June 29, 2021, 09:31:32 AM »

We're definitely not getting a winner today right? I mean, I know it's not clear what we're getting, but there's no way they're going to have all calculations done, right?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1872 on: June 29, 2021, 09:45:39 AM »

Maybe this will wake people up on why RCV is a garbage voting system. It only entrenches the elite of any area it is in.

At least there's a case for a runoff system. Winning a primary with 30% of the vote in a field of multiple candidates is hardly a mandate.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1873 on: June 29, 2021, 09:55:28 AM »

Maybe this will wake people up on why RCV is a garbage voting system. It only entrenches the elite of any area it is in.

How does RCV working exactly as intended prove it’s garbage?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1874 on: June 29, 2021, 10:05:40 AM »

We're definitely not getting a winner today right? I mean, I know it's not clear what we're getting, but there's no way they're going to have all calculations done, right?

Unless Adams is ahead by a lot on the final ballot, i.e. 58-42, we probably have to keep waiting.
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