NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125657 times)
Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1825 on: June 25, 2021, 10:16:38 AM »

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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1826 on: June 25, 2021, 10:35:38 AM »

Eric Adams is a...classic working class/"common man" politician who is basically self-schooled and plays the game to earn his bread

And jaichind was supporting him in the primary...

jaichind supporting populists is hardly out of character. Frankly, I do not understand this.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1827 on: June 26, 2021, 01:27:15 AM »



Good ads?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1828 on: June 26, 2021, 09:38:24 AM »

How much longer will it take before we know the final results? Another two weeks?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1829 on: June 26, 2021, 02:44:09 PM »

How much longer will it take before we know the final results? Another two weeks?

More like 2-&-a-1/2 weeks, but yeah, it's gonna be a little while longer.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1830 on: June 26, 2021, 02:50:34 PM »


His ads are excellent.
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Karenthecomputer
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« Reply #1831 on: June 26, 2021, 04:09:29 PM »

Who do you guys think will ultimately end up as the Dem nominee for Comptroller?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1832 on: June 26, 2021, 09:39:08 PM »

Who do you guys think will ultimately end up as the Dem nominee for Comptroller?

Probably Lander. His lead is large enough to avoid an RCV surprise. But who knows?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1833 on: June 26, 2021, 09:58:12 PM »

How much longer will it take before we know the final results? Another two weeks?

More like 2-&-a-1/2 weeks, but yeah, it's gonna be a little while longer.

New York's slow counting is a frustrating thing. I can only imagine how much worse the conspiracy theories and the "fraud" lawsuits would have been last year if the counting had been that slow across the country.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1834 on: June 26, 2021, 10:19:14 PM »

If Democrats are serious about restoring faith in elections, standardized (and timely) vote counting procedures should be the top priority. Bar none.
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H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1835 on: June 26, 2021, 11:07:22 PM »

Eric Adams is a...classic working class/"common man" politician who is basically self-schooled and plays the game to earn his bread

And jaichind was supporting him in the primary...

jaichind supporting populists is hardly out of character. Frankly, I do not understand this.

Anarcho-capitalists like Rothbard favoured alliances with right-wing populists and urged "unleashing the cops" on criminals.
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1836 on: June 27, 2021, 12:59:38 AM »

How much longer will it take before we know the final results? Another two weeks?
Try two years. This is the issue with ranked choice voting

This is the most absurd statement I have heard since Australia does the vast majority of it's RCV within a day,
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1837 on: June 27, 2021, 06:31:11 AM »

Who do you guys think will ultimately end up as the Dem nominee for Comptroller?

If outstanding ballots reflect the boroughs that the New York Times/Politico thinks they are missing from, Johnson will need to make up about 74,000 votes to win. Depending on ballot exhaustion, that means that, by the final round, Johnson will need to pick up between 59% (at a hypothetical 0% exhaustion) and 64% (if exhaustion is way up at 35%) of the transfer votes.

There's only been two polls of the race in the past month, and both have had undecideds around a quarter of the total, but the simulations of Data for Progress showed the candidates going just about even on reallocation, and they nearly nailed the percentages with Lander at 33% and Johnson at 26% in the first round (ignoring those massive undecided numbers). The other poll, out of Schoen Cooperman, showed Johnson getting 60% of the transfer votes, but they massively missed the first-round mark, where they had Johnson beating Lander 29 to 18.

All in all, it seems like a tall order for Johnson to pull ahead, but a lack of polling and outstanding ballots mean that there's still a chance. Probably about the same, if not slightly better, than Adams being beat out for the mayoralty.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1838 on: June 27, 2021, 09:01:39 AM »

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1839 on: June 27, 2021, 10:47:43 AM »

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then

No, we are getting the RCV simulation of the in-person ballots. Absentees come later.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1840 on: June 27, 2021, 10:49:13 AM »

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then

No, we are getting the RCV simulation of the in-person ballots. Absentees come later.

Is that not a waste of time since they have to redo the RCV distribution once the absentees votes comes in and counted ?
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #1841 on: June 27, 2021, 10:51:24 AM »

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then

No, we are getting the RCV simulation of the in-person ballots. Absentees come later.

Is that not a waste of time since they have to redo the RCV distribution once the absentees votes comes in and counted ?

Probably, but the realistic alternative in that scenario is that we don't get any info at all this upcoming Tuesday. At least this way, if Adams is ahead 60-40 in the final ballot, we can definitively call the race. Otherwise if it's like a 52-48 lead or closer, we wait for absentees.
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Agafin
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« Reply #1842 on: June 27, 2021, 11:58:10 AM »

I find it completely ridiculous how long it takes to count votes in some american states (especially when VBM is involved). Seriously, why doesn't every state do like Florida which typically has over 95% of votes counted within a few hours (even though it also has VBM)?
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Donerail
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« Reply #1843 on: June 27, 2021, 12:50:02 PM »

I find it completely ridiculous how long it takes to count votes in some american states (especially when VBM is involved). Seriously, why doesn't every state do like Florida which typically has over 95% of votes counted within a few hours (even though it also has VBM)?
Florida's able to count quickly because it uses VBM — you can get most of your votes counted before polls closed if they're mailed in a week or two in advance, and all that's left to count on election night is day-of votes. The wrinkle is that Florida requires your ballot to be delivered to the county supervisor of elections by the time polls close; if you mail your ballot four days before the election, 50-50 on whether your vote's actually gonna count.

New York, being run by Democrats who at least talk about their desire to enfranchise everybody, has decided that your ballot only has to be postmarked by election day, and can arrive up to a week later. They could make the process run a lot faster by requiring votes to be received by election day, but that would almost certainly lead to a number of ballots being invalidated and allegations of voter suppression as a result.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1844 on: June 27, 2021, 01:06:09 PM »

I find it completely ridiculous how long it takes to count votes in some american states (especially when VBM is involved). Seriously, why doesn't every state do like Florida which typically has over 95% of votes counted within a few hours (even though it also has VBM)?

I think the difference is the issue of allowing "curing" VBM ballots in case there are problems.  That adds weeks to the process.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1845 on: June 27, 2021, 01:20:44 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2021, 01:54:35 PM by Oryxslayer »

I find it completely ridiculous how long it takes to count votes in some american states (especially when VBM is involved). Seriously, why doesn't every state do like Florida which typically has over 95% of votes counted within a few hours (even though it also has VBM)?

Every US election has a long, long, tail - but we never really care about it. This is for military and oversees ballots, curing, and the like. Of course that is less than 1% of the count, so it almost never matters. New York City has two issues. One: the state cannot count the mail ballots it has on hand on E-night. Other states that accept votes postmarked the day of election day allocate resources to cure and authenticate the ballot ahead of time, so then it can be fed into the machine on E-Night. Several western states for example run all-mail elections and have >99% done within 24 hours. Resources are allocated so that ballots which arrive quickly are counted in a timely manner. Almost all California ballots are processed within a week of poll closing, despite the size of the state and the month-long process for the stragglers. This is a NY issue and legislators have spoke about modernization.

The second issue of course is RCV, which all but requires every legal vote to be in before a winner can be declared. So we must wait for the handful of military and curable ballots before there is a final total.
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #1846 on: June 27, 2021, 05:19:10 PM »

Seems like a classic case of trying to have your cake and eat it too.  Want to adopt RCV so a winner has to get 50% but you want every ballot to also count, so you have to wait days for any ballot postmarked on time to arrive rather than making sure people hit a certain cutoff point in the mail so their ballot is received.

Ridiculous how long it is taking to count all of this and declare a winner.
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1847 on: June 27, 2021, 07:42:11 PM »

I really don’t see why people care and making a fuss over the election taking a while to certify. That’s pretty normal (for New York especially) for elections to take awhile, especially when close and competitive. I get it doesn’t make good headlines to say “Adams has almost certainly won but we don’t know”, but honestly I’m perfectly fine waiting a week or more if it means a more fair, representative and thorough election
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1848 on: June 27, 2021, 07:52:33 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2021, 08:45:32 PM by Roll Roons »

I really don’t see why people care and making a fuss over the election taking a while to certify. That’s pretty normal (for New York especially) for elections to take awhile, especially when close and competitive. I get it doesn’t make good headlines to say “Adams has almost certainly won but we don’t know”, but honestly I’m perfectly fine waiting a week or more if it means a more fair, representative and thorough election

It's a horrible practice. Maybe it's "normal" in New York but it shouldn't be. As others have said, it gives people like Trump room to spread conspiracy theories about something being wrong with the process. And the people of NY-22 were deprived of representation for six weeks because ballot counting was such a mess. You're a f**king idiot if you're actually defending New York's election system.

Strict deadlines for receipt and certification.
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leecannon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1849 on: June 27, 2021, 10:08:47 PM »

I really don’t see why people care and making a fuss over the election taking a while to certify. That’s pretty normal (for New York especially) for elections to take awhile, especially when close and competitive. I get it doesn’t make good headlines to say “Adams has almost certainly won but we don’t know”, but honestly I’m perfectly fine waiting a week or more if it means a more fair, representative and thorough election

It's a horrible practice. Maybe it's "normal" in New York but it shouldn't be. As others have said, it gives people like Trump room to spread conspiracy theories about something being wrong with the process. And the people of NY-22 were deprived of representation for six weeks because ballot counting was such a mess. You're a f**king idiot if you're actually defending New York's election system.

Strict deadlines for receipt and certification.

I agree their should be deadlines, no one says they’re aren’t, but are you seriously arguing taking more time to check your work makes it more likely for it to be wrong? I wasn’t defending New York, their electoral system is a mess, but I don’t get the pages of bellyaching about it taking a few days to count the votes

Give a day, give a month Trump and people like hun will poke holes and scream and rant, it’s not the election officers fault
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