NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Kamala's side hoe]

If you combine the Yang/Wiley/Garcia vote it's literally whites/Asians against Hispanics/blacks (Adams).

The map follows the racial demography of the city pretty closely.

Ehh Wiley's support looks fairly cross-racial to me. She's doing reasonably well in some heavily Latino areas like northern Manhattan.

Eyeballing it, but Wiley seems to be running an (incredibly distant) second to Adams in many of the predominantly black precincts, which indicates that she's probably doing (comparatively speaking) well with younger black voters as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

[TrumpBritt24]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1407530449551990787

Democratic Socialists take Buffalo and Rochester!

[Biden his time]

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:45 P.M. Eastern (all numbers in parentheses refer to changes since 10:10 P.M.)

501,518 votes counted total (+112,730)

Adams: 154,128 (+37,606) - 30.73% (+0.76%)
Wiley: 105,876 (+24,680) - 21.11% (+0.23%)
Garcia: 104,051 (+21,062) - 20.75% (-0.60%)
Yang: 59,036 (+12,515) - 11.77% (-0.20%)

UPDATE!


Even as Adams and Wiley gain and Garcia slides, I share Blairite's optimism for much the same reasons as him.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1407530449551990787

Democratic Socialists take Buffalo and Rochester!

This night can’t get any worse 😭😭😭

[TrumpBritt24]

YANG OUT

https://twitter.com/AlexMillerNews/status/1407531062591381510

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

I’m confused, so can’t they teach them primary subjects in Yiddish or Hebrew then? Do they not have the teachers for that?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investigators-say-26-yeshivas-fall-below-new-yorks-education-standards-11576798974
Audits have consitiently found that they don't teach non-relgiious subjects to any quality. The city has been trying to get them to stop but the bloc vote is just too powerful.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

This is not that unlikely IMO. Adams will win a significant share of Yang's support, as he'll be getting close to 100% of his Orthodox voters' second preferences.

[TrumpBritt24]

YANG OUT

https://twitter.com/AlexMillerNews/status/1407531062591381510

Yang for Governor.

I don't think he's that stupid, politically speaking.

Go home, re-launch Venture for America, work on the podcast/probably launch a Youtube or Twitch channel, get a book deal on campaigning, spend some time with the kids and wife.

I think the earliest we'll see him again, if ever, is after 2024. I think he fully understands now that the center-left/technocrat politics just isn't popular enough yet in America.

[Oryxslayer]

I really with there was an attempt at an exit poll tonight. There's essentially two scenarios right now, and an exit would reveal which occurred. The consolidation of voters around the big three makes both options viable, since votes will be far less likely to get lost to transfers. Those scenarios are:

- Adams already has this simply on the basis of just his initial lead. Everyone will just get pittances from the minor candidates, and then he will get enough from Yang's Hasidim and Wiley's minorities to win.

- Most of Adams's support from transfers decided to rank him first through the process of late-game consolidation. He'll get Yang's Hasidim, but the weekend pact cemented an anti-Adams perception among supporters. When reallocation occurs, it will bring likely Garcia (off of Yang voters), but maybe Wiley enough support to pull ahead.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Maya Wiley is ahead of Garcia right now, watch her end up beating Adams…

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

This is not that unlikely IMO. Adams will win a significant share of Yang's support, as he'll be getting close to 100% of his Orthodox voters' second preferences.

That's like 4% of the total electorate.

[Biden his time]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

I’m confused, so can’t they teach them primary subjects in Yiddish or Hebrew then? Do they not have the teachers for that?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investigators-say-26-yeshivas-fall-below-new-yorks-education-standards-11576798974
Audits have consitiently found that they don't teach non-relgiious subjects to any quality. The city has been trying to get them to stop but the bloc vote is just too powerful.

This is very sad to see. Where I live, the religious schools, specifically the Catholic schools, are prestigious places filled with academic rigor (especially in secular subjects). Even non-Catholics are trying to get into them.

You'd think that a religion with as great an intellectual history and as educated a populace as Judaism would have the best schools in every department.

[H. Ross Peron]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

I’m confused, so can’t they teach them primary subjects in Yiddish or Hebrew then? Do they not have the teachers for that?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investigators-say-26-yeshivas-fall-below-new-yorks-education-standards-11576798974
Audits have consitiently found that they don't teach non-relgiious subjects to any quality. The city has been trying to get them to stop but the bloc vote is just too powerful.

Eric Adams's servility to these reactionaries, couched in the cynical terms of postmodern cultural relativism, did much to sour me on his pretensions:

Students and families are saying they want a culturally sensitive education. When I walked inside the yeshivas, I didn’t see Shakespeare. But I saw books that the children can look at and see themselves. This argument is more than just what yeshivas are doing. It’s what we are doing in our schools all across this city, if not the country. This Anglo-Saxon-central education is part of the overall fight. They have to meet the standards that are necessary for these young people to have a future. But we also have to re-examine our concept of education. I believe we’re schooling and not educating and developing the full person in our children.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

[TrumpBritt24]

Curtis Sliwa defeats Fernando Mateo in the GOP primary.

[TrumpBritt24]

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

Buffalo and Rochester Mayoral primary results suggest otherwise. Two powerhouse NY Dem. Party Mayors, very "tough on crime" and business-friendly, just collapsed to Democratic Socialist candidates.

The need for Biden Democrats is a purple state issue - not a blue state issue. Stop fearing the paper tiger.

[KaiserDave]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

[Babeuf]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

This is not that unlikely IMO. Adams will win a significant share of Yang's support, as he'll be getting close to 100% of his Orthodox voters' second preferences.

That's like 4% of the total electorate.

With inevitable vote exhaustion in the transfers, a solid and predictable 4% is a lot.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

You should know by now that doomerism or bloomerism doesn't really motivate me. I just think this is gonna be very, very close to 50/50 when it's all done.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

Your theory just got buffaloed.

[KaiserDave]

Folks, despite the awful Adams (likely) win, remember than Lander is likely to win and Bragg too!

[Storr]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

I’m confused, so can’t they teach them primary subjects in Yiddish or Hebrew then? Do they not have the teachers for that?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investigators-say-26-yeshivas-fall-below-new-yorks-education-standards-11576798974
Audits have consitiently found that they don't teach non-relgiious subjects to any quality. The city has been trying to get them to stop but the bloc vote is just too powerful.

Eric Adams's servility to these reactionaries, couched in the cynical terms of postmodern cultural relativism, did much to sour me on his pretensions:

Students and families are saying they want a culturally sensitive education. When I walked inside the yeshivas, I didn’t see Shakespeare. But I saw books that the children can look at and see themselves. This argument is more than just what yeshivas are doing. It’s what we are doing in our schools all across this city, if not the country. This Anglo-Saxon-central education is part of the overall fight. They have to meet the standards that are necessary for these young people to have a future. But we also have to re-examine our concept of education. I believe we’re schooling and not educating and developing the full person in our children.

"This Anglo-Saxon-central education"? Holy yikes....

[TrumpBritt24]

Democrats will need to pivot hard, nationally, to be tough on crime after this. Even their base voters in the Bronx are sick of the "defund" nonsense. Electoral disaster in 2022 awaits otherwise.

Your theory just got buffaloed.

Won't lie, I thought DemSocs were really having a rough past couple of weeks.

Taking several huge primaries all throughout such an establishment-dominated state may be a momentum shift that the left needs to show the Biden Dems that the times are changing.

Call them losers and BernieBros all you want. Some of them are. But people that "LARP" as revolutionaries and rebels and hate on the party establishment are, consequently, winning Democratic primaries.

That being said...I still would prefer a Biden Dem for the '24 nomination. The situation on the national level is still far too fragile to risk.

[compucomp]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

Particularly assuming 10% exhaustion. For example in the 2018 ME-2 house race, the rate of ballot exhaustion in the ranked choice was 35.2%, there was a Republican and a Democrat to choose from, and the independents may have even openly told their voters to put the Dem second. It's definitely much better to have the lead in hand than to hope for others' lower preferences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Maine