NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What's with the freaking stained-glass look of the precinct winner map in SW Queens?

Not a very residential area=weirdly unpopulated precincts=chaotic map.

[Alben Barkley]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

How can something that never really began end?

[Biden his time]

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

Many of the recent polls did show Wiley leading Garcia in the first couple of rounds until, like, round six when Yang's voters pushed the latter ahead into the final. So, if the surveys are accurate, a third place finish in round one would not necessarily spell doom for the Garcia team.  

Thank God for that! Even if you aren't with Garcia you should take into account the fact that she does better than Wiley against Adams.

Just take this poll conducted by DFP Polling in the final days of the campaigns, where one of the first tidbits pointed out is that:

Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, and Maya Wiley are poised to be the final three candidates in the ranked-choice election for Mayor of New York City. Garcia and Wiley are neck-and-neck; the simulation suggests that if Garcia were to advance to the final round, she has a path to victory over Adams, while Adams would emerge victorious were Wiley to advance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly, there actually seems to be a non-neglibile Stringer vote here...

[Calthrina950]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

How can something that never really began end?

True. It'll be interesting when the inevitable New York Times obituary about Yang c. 2073 comes out, and what it will say. I'd imagine that he'll be largely forgotten by then.

[Mexican Wolf]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1407511104146845704

It happened in the 2010 Oakland mayor race.

Not that I think I know better than him, but Wasserman really seems to be jumping the gun here with less than 20% of the first round votes in.

It was a 10 point lead with 100% of the first round votes in Oakland.

Just to be clear, I was siding with you, not him on this. I think the RCV results could still end up like that Oakland race even if Adams ends up with a decently large lead in the first round.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Eh, never say never. I would've said that of Don Giovanni after Jan 20th, but we still get spammed with asinine DJT 2024 threads on here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

How can something that never really began end?

True. It'll be interesting when the inevitable New York Times obituary about Yang c. 2073 comes out, and what it will say. I'd imagine that he'll be largely forgotten by then.

Yang is still young and he clearly has political ambitions. It's not safe to assume his political career is over.

[GALeftist]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Remember Jon Ossoff?

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

[Ferguson97]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Remember Jon Ossoff?

Losing once is a bit different from losing twice. If Ossoff lost in January, it would be safe to say his career would be over.

[brucejoel99]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Nah, he'll probably keep trying to grow Humanity Forward & staying directly involved with politics like he did in GA. He might run again for something too; he doesn't seem the type to be content with just sitting on the side-lines forever.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Wiley does seem to be quite dominant in the Queens part of NY-14.

[Alben Barkley]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Remember Jon Ossoff?

Ossoff barely lost a general election in a rapidly D-trending district in a rapidly D-trending state.

Yang failed spectacularly in a primary race that was supposed to be his to lose, after already flopping in an overambitious presidential run.

I don’t think it’s comparable.

[Alben Barkley]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

[Ferguson97]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

[Alben Barkley]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

[Nyvin]

If you combine the Yang/Wiley/Garcia vote it's literally whites/Asians against Hispanics/blacks (Adams).

The map follows the racial demography of the city pretty closely.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel yeshivas.

*FTFY. That's what the ultra-Orthodox bloc cared more about than anything else in this race.

[Gracile]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Eyeballing it, but Wiley seems to be running an (incredibly distant) second to Adams in many of the predominantly black precincts, which indicates that she's probably doing (comparatively speaking) well with younger black voters as well.

[PSOL]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He promised to leave their brain-washing centers(schools) alone and not to interfere with them. Because apparently forcing them to teach students actual skills like maths and reading is anti-semitic tyranny.

I’m confused, so can’t they teach them primary subjects in Yiddish or Hebrew then? Do they not have the teachers for that?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.

Can someone explain again why exactly Yang is dominating with ultra-Orthodox Jews?

He came out in strong support of Israel.

But I thought the ultra-Orthodox Jews were the ones least likely to be Zionist?

He got Rabbinic endorsements, so the community followed their lead. Stringer also got a few, which is why he's doing well in some Hasidic neighborhoods. Now why yang got those endorsements, probably because he courted the community early, especially on the Yeshiva issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Remember Jon Ossoff?

Ossoff barely lost a general election in a rapidly D-trending district in a rapidly D-trending state.

Yang failed spectacularly in a primary race that was supposed to be his to lose, after already flopping in an overambitious presidential run.

I don’t think it’s comparable.

I don't think there are many scenarios where Yang just waltzs into the New York mayoralty just one year after running for president - too many ambitious Dem officeholders who would run for it too even with its rather diminished and limited potential being what it is. Frankly, people thinking Yang was very, very likely to win clearly didn't understand structurally the way the primary would likely settle in practice, with Yang profitting a lot from his name rec early on only for it to even it out later.
It's not Yang's fault that he had leads very unlikely to be sustained.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/LissandraVilla/status/1407528766348406789