NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, Yang seems to really be crushing it with the Ultra-Orthodox (https://rrhelections.com/). Looks like all the rabbis agreed he's the man for the job.

This bodes well for Adams who'll get a boost (as he's probably their #2)

To the surprise of no one, Yang is also doing very well in Flushing. Over 60% in more than a few precincts.

[Lief 🗽]

I suppose one benefit for Garcia is that I imagine not many people are ranking her below Adams unless he is their #1?

There may be a lot of black Wiley-Adams-Garcia voters who are anti-Yang.

Although having seen the precinct map on RRH, I think a larger than expected portion of Wiley voters are white, and most of the rest are young and/or highly educated, which all bodes better than pre-election polls for Wiley-Garcia anti-Adams transfers.

I do think Garcia will win a majority of the transfers, but probably not by enough. Making up a 5+ point lead in IRV is pretty hard without more explicit, organized cooperation agreements, and the Yang-Garcia team up probably came too late (plus much of Yang's vote will go to Adams anyway because of his Orthodox support).

[KaiserDave]

Holy sh*t Brad has a pretty strong lead. This could happen people.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

You’re mayor in all of our hearts, Yang! ❤️

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1407521618927161347?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Watch Sliwa beat Adams in the general.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is likely winning the Latino vote? Wiley?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

There is no justification for voting for Adams

Adams, unlike Yang, Garcia and a couple others, does not have the indefensible position that students should be required to be COVID vaccinated to return to school but teachers shouldn't, so that is a big plus in his favor in my book.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/where-nyc-mayoral-hopefuls-stand-on-vaccines-in-schools-remote-learning/

But he also wants 1 teacher for every 400 students…

Was pretty clear to me he was speaking of it as addition to regular classes.  I don't think it's a great idea but it's not what it's been presented as in soundbites.

 Requiring children to take a vaccine that's still basically in experimental stage for that population while you don't for the adult population where the safety has been well demonstrated is just beyond the pale to me.  I was thinking Garcia or Yang would be best, but learning this switched me over to Adams.

[Tintrlvr]

Any pattern to the very few Springer precincts or are they just analomies alone with nothing in common?

They seem to be just very low-population. Incidentally, McGuire nearly won a couple of precincts along 5th Ave on the UES with over 100 voters, which is a lot less random.

[Biden his time]

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

[KaiserDave]

There is no justification for voting for Adams

Adams, unlike Yang, Garcia and a couple others, does not have the indefensible position that students should be required to be COVID vaccinated to return to school but teachers shouldn't, so that is a big plus in his favor in my book.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/where-nyc-mayoral-hopefuls-stand-on-vaccines-in-schools-remote-learning/

But he also wants 1 teacher for every 400 students…

Was pretty clear to me he was speaking of it as addition to regular classes.  I don't think it's a great idea but it's not what it's been presented as in soundbites.

 Requiring children to take a vaccine that's still basically in experimental stage for that population while you don't for the adult population where the safety has been well demonstrated is just beyond the pale to me.  I was thinking Garcia or Yang would be best, but learning this switched me over to Adams.

No

He meant it as a substitute for summer vacation

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

Many of the recent polls did show Wiley leading Garcia in the first couple of rounds until, like, round six when Yang's voters pushed the latter ahead into the final. So, if the surveys are accurate, a third place finish in round one would not necessarily spell doom for the Garcia team.  

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Who is likely winning the Latino vote? Wiley?

So far Adams has been cleaning up in the Bronx, including the heavily Hispanic parts.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s over, Adams has won.

[KaiserDave]

Whoever said Yang was only going to win Asians and Hasidim was right on the money.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is likely winning the Latino vote? Wiley?

So far Adams has been cleaning up in the Bronx, including the heavily Hispanic parts.

True, and in Corona (the area in Queens) Adams has been doing really well too.

[Tintrlvr]

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

It’ll be Garcia. Wiley has a low ceiling.

I think it's clear Yang preferences would keep Garcia ahead of Wiley later if not in first-preferences. Although a lot of Yang preferences will also flow to Adams. The precinct map in Brooklyn is really interesting for the sharp Adams-Yang divide between different Orthodox Jewish areas - look at that sharp line along McDonald Ave!

[KaiserDave]

I'm the only person on a night bus to the North Fork. It is dead quiet, well...almost...just the sound of me furiously typing away.

[Alben Barkley]

Who’s got the precinct map?

Never mind, here:

https://rrhelections.com/

[Roronoa D. Law]

Gross

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1407511104146845704

It happened in the 2010 Oakland mayor race.

Not that I think I know better than him, but Wasserman really seems to be jumping the gun here with less than 20% of the first round votes in.

It was a 10 point lead with 100% of the first round votes in Oakland.

[KaiserDave]

So where are we


-Adams is going to win probably
-Lander!!!!!!! is going to win probably
-I need a Manhattan DA update NOW

[Gracile]

Tiffany Caban has stayed north of 50% - and has even expanded her lead slightly (50.48% to her nearest competitor at 24.94% in the first round). The only other DSA-alligned Council candidate who is leading in the first round is Alexa Aviles in District 38, who is leading 40.02%-24.38% against her nearest opponent in first round allocations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's with the freaking stained-glass look of the precinct winner map in SW Queens?

[Calthrina950]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?