NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

"Each week following the election, the votes will be tabulated. The candidate with the lowest number of first-choice votes will be eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are redistributed to each voter’s second-choice candidate, and so on until only two candidates remain. It's unclear how long it will take to count ballots, so it's uncertain how soon a winner can be declared."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nyc-primary-elections-mayoral-race-2021/h_516c2954bc98b52cf65cc705b9098edb

So is each round going to happen weekly or is this article just being vague?

Wait, what?  Is it not instant runoff?  This election is going to continue for months?  That can't be right.  Am I totally out of the loop on this?

[Lief 🗽]

"Each week following the election, the votes will be tabulated. The candidate with the lowest number of first-choice votes will be eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are redistributed to each voter’s second-choice candidate, and so on until only two candidates remain. It's unclear how long it will take to count ballots, so it's uncertain how soon a winner can be declared."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nyc-primary-elections-mayoral-race-2021/h_516c2954bc98b52cf65cc705b9098edb

So is each round going to happen weekly or is this article just being vague?

Wait, what?  Is it not instant runoff?  This election is going to continue for months?  That can't be right.  Am I totally out of the loop on this?

It is IRV, but our city is run by corrupt incompetents, so figuring out the winner, something that should be finished in at most 24 hours, will instead take weeks.

[Donerail]

Recall that it took six weeks for them to count the 2020 primary, and that was a simple first-past-the-post system. We should expect full results for this election some time in 2023.

[Torrain]

BREAKING NEWS/s

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1407392960682004482

[It’s so Joever]

Go Wiley, or Garcia, or anyone who isn't Adams!

Mayor Stringer is delighted by your endorsement.

[KaiserDave]

There is no justification for voting for Adams

[brucejoel99]

In a similar vein to the previous post, I think we are all unprepared for the Trumpian manner Adams may conduct himself during these next few weeks. He has already displayed hints of it during the cross-endorsement, and the inevitable wanting period will only heighten everyone's nerves. Unless something shocking happens, Adams will win the first round votes counted tonight. We will however get an idea based on comparative turnout by neighborhood and RCV projections if he is in danger of losing that position on the final allocation. Adams has already attacked the RCV process and will likely continue to do so if the data is there for a final round loss. He also could try to claim some legitimacy from his first round victory as if it was the final contest, potentially through an incredibly premature victory party and speech tonight.

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1407327838861238275?s=20

At this point, somebody could tell me that Eric Adams is literally just a Republican plant who was sent in to infiltrate the Democratic Party in order to make us look just as sh*tty as the likes of Trump, & I'd honestly have no choice but to buy it.

In any event, if Adams' 1st-round lead is a plurality of ~5-6 points, I'd have to presume that any possibility of a long-RCV-tally game has been foreclosed. Even just a ~3-4 point lead, albeit opening up the possibility that Garcia will end up getting enough 2nd-choice votes to surpass him, would still imply a really good chance - ~70%? - for Adams to win in the end. The best we can hope for now is that Adams & Garcia are virtually tied tonight, with us not knowing who the Mayor-designate will be 'til mid-July. This would lead to an arduous & close fight, but one which would presumably favor Garcia.

[brucejoel99]

Oh, & also in some other news:

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1407340359332646923
I'm honestly really shocked that AOC would actually do something like this. It's gotta be such a gut-punch to his accusers.

[President Johnson]

Really interesting how that will turn out with this election mode. I hope Garcia wins.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Adams initially leads but loses the final round, does he say the election was stolen? Of course the whole point of IRV is that it might give a different winner.

[brucejoel99]

If Adams initially leads but loses the final round, does he say the election was stolen? Of course the whole point of IRV is that it might give a different winner.

He hasn't been willing to reassure people that he won't say that in the event that he leads in the 1st-round but loses in the final round, so people are free to take that as they may. He also doesn't give a sh*t about what the whole point of IRV is.

[Lief 🗽]

If Adams initially leads but loses the final round, does he say the election was stolen? Of course the whole point of IRV is that it might give a different winner.

Probably (he’s already responded to the perfectly normal thing of candidates endorsing each other by comparing it to Jim Crow) but luckily there’s not really anything he can do but whine about it.

[KaiserDave]

NYC is about to elect Eric Adams

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Oh, & also in some other news:

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1407340359332646923
I'm honestly really shocked that AOC would actually do something like this. It's gotta be such a gut-punch to his accusers.

This is probably the most noteworthy thing I disagree with her on aside *from the Amazon campus thing (although I do think someplace like Detroit or Cleveland would’ve been better for that from a social welfare/justice perspective).

[brucejoel99]

400K in-person votes as of 4pm:

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1407435309671976967
Add in the 200K early-votes & the 87K already-returned absentee ballots, & nearly 700K votes have already been cast. At this pace, with another 200K in-person votes still possible later today in addition to the 150K outstanding absentee ballots, 1M votes is looking doable. In contrast, the 2013 primary saw just 750K votes cast. Good news for Adams, I guess, ughhh.

[Real Texan Politics]

Oh, & also in some other news:

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1407340359332646923
I'm honestly really shocked that AOC would actually do something like this. It's gotta be such a gut-punch to his accusers.

Must've just passed them off as conspiracy theories or something.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

There is no justification for voting for Adams

Adams, unlike Yang, Garcia and a couple others, does not have the indefensible position that students should be required to be COVID vaccinated to return to school but teachers shouldn't, so that is a big plus in his favor in my book.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/where-nyc-mayoral-hopefuls-stand-on-vaccines-in-schools-remote-learning/

[H. Ross Peron]

There is no justification for voting for Adams

Adams, unlike Yang, Garcia and a couple others, does not have the indefensible position that students should be required to be COVID vaccinated to return to school but teachers shouldn't, so that is a big plus in his favor in my book.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/where-nyc-mayoral-hopefuls-stand-on-vaccines-in-schools-remote-learning/

Students who are eligible for vaccinated should be vaccinated, as should teachers and other adult staff.

[jaichind]

The whole Yang-Garcia maneuver seems like a big mistake to me.  I really do not like any of the candidates and if forced would most likely reluctantly be for Adams so I do not care that much either way.  But when you openly collude like you are just pushing up Adam's chances which I assume is the opposite of what they want.

[Alben Barkley]

The whole Yang-Garcia maneuver seems like a big mistake to me.  I really do not like any of the candidates and if forced would most likely reluctantly be for Adams so I do not care that much either way.  But when you openly collude like you are just pushing up Adam's chances which I assume is the opposite of what they want.

People always act like there's some big conspiracy or even that it's somehow "cheating" when candidates act strategically by endorsing or rallying around another candidate they prefer over someone they dislike much more. It's f--king bizarre. Same thing happened when most moderate Dems dropped out last year to endorse Biden and stop Sanders. No it doesn't mean it's "rigged." It's f--king politics. "Colluding" is part of the game. Nobody makes a commitment when they run to never drop out to endorse another candidate or co-endorse another candidate or tell their voters to vote for another candidate in certain circumstances (like when Rubio told his Ohio supporters to vote for Kasich in the 2016 primaries). Again, it's f--king politics. It's how the game is played. It's not some kind of strange idealistic crusade.

And I know of no evidence it has this weird backfire effect you seem to think it does either; people do it because it works. And it's not like "strange bedfellow" alliances against a common foe are anything new, in or outside politics. The f--king US and USSR teamed up against the Nazis. Moreover, when you take into account the nature of this new ranked choice system, there's much more incentive to form alliances like this.

[kwabbit]

When should we expect results from this race? NYC + ranked choice sounds like a nightmare.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

400K in-person votes as of 4pm:

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1407435309671976967
Add in the 200K early-votes & the 87K already-returned absentee ballots, & nearly 700K votes have already been cast. At this pace, with another 200K in-person votes still possible later today in addition to the 150K outstanding absentee ballots, 1M votes is looking doable. In contrast, the 2013 primary saw just 750K votes cast. Good news for Adams, I guess, ughhh.

I wouldn't think so. Adams and Garcia have the highest-propensity supporters. Yang and Wiley would seem to have more low-propensity support.

[KaiserDave]

It’s raining in NYC today
Commence the memes

[brucejoel99]

400K in-person votes as of 4pm:

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1407435309671976967
Add in the 200K early-votes & the 87K already-returned absentee ballots, & nearly 700K votes have already been cast. At this pace, with another 200K in-person votes still possible later today in addition to the 150K outstanding absentee ballots, 1M votes is looking doable. In contrast, the 2013 primary saw just 750K votes cast. Good news for Adams, I guess, ughhh.

I wouldn't think so. Adams and Garcia have the highest-propensity supporters. Yang and Wiley would seem to have more low-propensity support.

It really depends on who it exactly is that's turning out, then. Based on turnout estimates in the polling, this ~25% turnout would equate to a strong Adams performance thanks to the votes of older Black middle-class voters in Brooklyn & Queens counteracting the anti-Adams votes of white, wealthy Manhattanites. But if it's a secret surge in, say, Orthodox turnout, that likely helps Yang out a lot... before helping Adams out in 2nd-ranks if Yang gets eliminated before the final round.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s raining in NYC today
Commence the memes

Rain in NoHo.