NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[brucejoel99]

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off

Never make the mistake of thinking that said markets make any decisions on the basis of logic.

[brucejoel99]

This news certainly calls the validity of the Adams campaign's spin-memo into question:

https://twitter.com/PaulSheehan_/status/1412481584217853962

[brucejoel99]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

[brucejoel99]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

[brucejoel99]

How are the odds now? 50-50?

PI is 72-28 Adams which makes no earthly sense because that movement wasn't based on anything real, but I digress.

I'd presume that actual odds here are still 50-50 (at worst for Garcia, 55-45 Adams; at best, Tilt Garcia).

It's *possible* that someone with inside knowledge is betting on Adams. There is, generally speaking, nothing preventing someone who works at the BOE and knows the results from betting on them before the results are made public. You can see that happening sometimes in the immediate aftermath of poll closings or shortly before results announcements - especially when results are released as a large batch. (UK by-election betting is notorious for huge last-second swings to the the party that wins before the result is announced since they release all in one go so insiders can make a big profit.) However, I do tend to agree that it's probably a thinly traded market with values based on nothing.

Yeah, it's technically possible, but this rise in Adams has maintained itself since his campaign put out that now-incorrect memo a few days back, & just has yet to revert because - at least going off of the comment section - many Adams holders are just convinced that it can't be anything but Adams at this point, even when you have people like Nate Cohn - whose own paper got their hands on that partial Manhattan data, & maybe more for all we know - saying that all of this is insane.

[brucejoel99]

Crazy theory but not that crazy since it's the BOE, but I'm thinking that they (obviously) already know what these results show - a Garcia victory - while also knowing that if they put out such results with any hint of a mistake whatsoever, then the Adams camp will cry fraud as loud as they can, leading BOE to quadruple-check literally everything just to make sure.

Thoughts?

[brucejoel99]

bruh

[brucejoel99]

I warmed up to Adams. He is a chad. He's said some weird/offensive stuff in the past but I don't think it will affect his governance as much as some here think. Also, It's pretty cool that after 125 years a borough president from the best borough has been elected mayor for the first time.

I don't know, man, but if his rejection of the proposed 18-story Atlantic Avenue rezoning is any indication, he'll end up being a NIMBY mayor, with housing prices & rent remaining high as NYC firmly rejects building-up. Hopefully the guy ends up proving all of us wrong, as opposed to taking good-enough bribes to end up building more condos for the wealthy than any Mayor in NYC history, but he was rather emphatically not the mayoral candidate whom NYC should've gone with here.

In any event, as somebody with a Brooklynite mother, mad props to the best boro.