Would Hillary have won without Comey’s email letter?
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  Would Hillary have won without Comey’s email letter?
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Question: Would Hillary have won without Comey’s email letter?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 76

Author Topic: Would Hillary have won without Comey’s email letter?  (Read 1594 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: August 28, 2020, 02:13:15 AM »

?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2020, 04:24:07 AM »

I think very probably yes unless another October/November surprise of the same level had come out.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2020, 04:47:09 AM »

I think very probably yes unless another October/November surprise of the same level had come out.

A lot of Wikileaks stuff was coming out at the same time.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2020, 07:48:13 AM »

It can't be empircally proven, but I think there's little doubt that it shifted the election.
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Mimoha
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2020, 08:58:07 AM »

I think she would have carried Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida without that letter, it was the biggest reason why late deciders voted for Trump by such a large margin.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2020, 09:26:58 AM »

Yes, definitely. I remember watching the news of the letter that evening and thinking "oh no..." because of the timing.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2020, 10:29:14 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM by brucejoel99 »

No one is certain about whether or not she would've done so, but it seems likely. As 538 put it:

Quote
At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

Note that the percentages are referring to a national swing, so a 1% (national) swing doesn't necessarily mean a 1% swing in MI, PA, or WI per se, hence why the best we can do is say "probably."
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Zyzz
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2020, 08:42:33 PM »

Yes, definitely. I remember watching the news of the letter that evening and thinking "oh no..." because of the timing.

Huma Abedin's husband Anthony Weiner was busted trying to hook up with underage girls. The FBI seized Huma's laptop, to see if Anthony Weiner had any evidence on it. The FBI did find some of Hillary's emails on the server, which led to Comey's announcement.

It led to every moron shrieking about HER EMAILS! again.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2020, 11:12:37 PM »

I think she probably would have won. Clinton 278-260.
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2020, 01:42:32 AM »

Yes because it knocked the Access Hollywood tape out of the focal point of the news cycle, allowing Trump to rejuvenate his campaign in the late surge that allowed him to win.  Without Comey's letter Trump probably doesn't recover from the tape and loses by narrow margins in the Rust Belt states that he won.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2020, 02:28:19 AM »

I can't even begin to describe the deep sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when I first heard the news. It was the same when she passed out on 9/11.

It very clearly shifted the election, yes.
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2020, 02:48:37 AM »

No, and the fact that Dems continue to tell themselves this for comfort and treat acknowledging her campaign's shortcomings and missteps as some sort of blasphemy is deeply worrying regarding the sort of candidates they'll nominate and campaign moves they'll make in the future.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2020, 11:47:45 AM »

No, and the fact that Dems continue to tell themselves this for comfort and treat acknowledging her campaign's shortcomings and missteps as some sort of blasphemy is deeply worrying regarding the sort of candidates they'll nominate and campaign moves they'll make in the future.

It's not mutually exclusive to acknowledge her campaign's shortcomings & missteps while also understanding that - as a matter of statistically speaking - the election was literally so close enough that all it'd take was one changed factor to change the end result, even in spite of Hillary's generally poor candidacy.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2020, 11:43:44 AM »

Obviously yes. She would have narrowly carried Florida and the blue wall upper midwest states that went to Trump. Popular vote is proably + 3 instead of the +2 she got.
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Zyzz
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2020, 11:54:42 PM »

The Trump campaign was under FBI investigation for collusion with the Russians starting in July 2016, why didn't Comey and the FBI tell the American people about Trump's treasonous behavior?
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TML
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 12:53:13 AM »

It's hard to say for sure, but I do think there would have been a greater likelihood of it happening. Remember that exit polls from four key states (WI, MI, PA, and FL) indicated that voters who decided within the week before Election Day could have provided the decisive margins in those states. On the other hand, 538 published an article a few days before the Comey announcement where it envisioned five different election outcomes, including one where Trump won. The Trump win scenario almost exactly matched the actual outcome except they had Trump winning NH and Clinton winning MI.
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compucomp
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2020, 09:14:54 PM »

Nate Silver did an analysis on this and found that in the national polls Clinton's lead dipped 3 points in the last week, if you even attribute one point to Comey's letter then Hillary would have won without the letter. So I say yes.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2020, 10:32:06 PM »

The answer is yes, only a tiny fraction of votes need to change.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2020, 04:33:47 PM »

Considering how incredibly nail biting close Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan were, almost surely
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2020, 09:30:18 PM »

I think so. If the election was held a week earlier and the email thing didn't happen, I believe she would have barely got by.
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »

possibly, though there was an announcement of Obamacare premium increases around that same time as well, which might have been just as important to Clinton's loss.
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