If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (user search)
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  If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like?  (Read 3865 times)
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« on: August 26, 2020, 09:31:50 PM »

All in all, given the massive age gaps we've been seeing in recent elections, it's hard to imagine that that's not going to have an impact moving forward...

I could see a centrist third party rise at the state level and maybe elect people to Congress. People who are wary of the influence of AOC types on the Democratic Party, but are scared off by the hardcore Trumpists. Basically people who are ideologically somewhere between Joe Biden and Marco Rubio.

One more remote possibility that combines both of these is the Democratic Party becoming such a massive big tent and so dominant among young voters that it contains nearly every ideology, while the Republican Party keeps purging moderates until it becomes a hyper-Trumpist, conspiracist, borderline-fascist party.
This could eventually lead to a split of the Democrats, and we'd end up with a three-party system, something like Progressive, Democratic, America First or something. A bit like Canada if the NDP was right-wing.

Actually, is there any interest in a timeline of that? Maybe I'll try my hand at writing one.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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Posts: 4,719


« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2020, 01:31:38 PM »

I’ve seen this chart before, but why don’t you see someone with Rick Santorum’s social views and Bernie’s economics in real life or run for office? Fiscally left/socially right may be the future winning ticket. Populist parties in Europe are trending this way already.

Wasn't that Trump's 2016 campaign?  He ran promising to protect Medicare/Medicaid, replace Obamacare with something better, institute protectionist tariffs, invest massively in infrastructure, etc.  He hasn't governed that way, but he did run as a fiscally left/socially right candidate.

To an extent, yes. His mean economic position was significantly to the left of the average Republican, but the standard deviation was high and his credibility was somewhat limited by his background as an evil property mogul.

More competent Republicans with much higher ceilings may well attempt to follow in his footsteps and do far better in using this formula.

Does Josh Hawley have the charisma?

He's the overhyped candidate who will quickly flop in the primaries.
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