If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like?

[Person Man]

I think a narrow Biden win probably means things aren't depolarizing anytime soon.
A big Biden victory might deescalate what's going on and force the Republican Party to find a way to victory that doesn't involve the politics of humiliation ("pwning teh libz") or the politics as being as loud and zealous as possible. Unless the Republican Party keeps losing (Democrats score a hat trick with presidents or trifectas), they probably aren't going soften on things like abortion, the ACA, or flat taxes.
It would still be something if the next GOP nominee is just seen more like Louis XVI than Pinochet the way Romney was.

In the event of a Trump winning but losing the Housing and the NPV, I don't think that would do much either. Democrats would just say that Trump has a lot of "charisma" and move on. Many Democrats were talking about how they needed to nominate someone between Evan Bayh and Bob Casey for 2008 in 2005 and Howard Dean's big tent won enough red states in 2006 to win all of Congress. Eventually they ended up with the most liberal trifecta in 40 years in 2008.  So even in a narrow Trump victory, I don't think that would mean anything would change anytime soon. If anything, it could be be worse than a narrow Biden victory.

Even in the case of a Republican sweep, its really hard to see any depolarization because a lot of "Trump Democrats" won't even vote for a "Law and Order" Pro-Life Democrat who just wants to go back to the taxes and spending in 2014. The only thing such a candidate would accomplish would be to keep liberals home.

[Person Man]

I’ve seen this chart before, but why don’t you see someone with Rick Santorum’s social views and Bernie’s economics in real life or run for office? Fiscally left/socially right may be the future winning ticket. Populist parties in Europe are trending this way already.

Wasn't that Trump's 2016 campaign?  He ran promising to protect Medicare/Medicaid, replace Obamacare with something better, institute protectionist tariffs, invest massively in infrastructure, etc.  He hasn't governed that way, but he did run as a fiscally left/socially right candidate.

To an extent, yes. His mean economic position was significantly to the left of the average Republican, but the standard deviation was high and his credibility was somewhat limited by his background as an evil property mogul.

More competent Republicans with much higher ceilings may well attempt to follow in his footsteps and do far better in using this formula.

Does Josh Hawley have the charisma?

[Person Man]

I’ve seen this chart before, but why don’t you see someone with Rick Santorum’s social views and Bernie’s economics in real life or run for office? Fiscally left/socially right may be the future winning ticket. Populist parties in Europe are trending this way already.

Wasn't that Trump's 2016 campaign?  He ran promising to protect Medicare/Medicaid, replace Obamacare with something better, institute protectionist tariffs, invest massively in infrastructure, etc.  He hasn't governed that way, but he did run as a fiscally left/socially right candidate.

To an extent, yes. His mean economic position was significantly to the left of the average Republican, but the standard deviation was high and his credibility was somewhat limited by his background as an evil property mogul.

More competent Republicans with much higher ceilings may well attempt to follow in his footsteps and do far better in using this formula.

Does Josh Hawley have the charisma?

He's the overhyped candidate who will quickly flop in the primaries.

I think he could be like Huckabee. There's just a lot of people who want to be the next Trump. Even if Jr or Ivanka run, they might not get it because there are the likes of DeSantis, Hawley, and Cotton that they must contend with in the "alt-right lane" of the GOP primary. I could see a first (someone like Reagan, HW, or Romney) or second generation of "New Right" (someone like McCain or W) candidate getting nominated in that environment. That might give Democrats a chance because that means  Republicans will have to reshuffle their campaign above and beyond simply not being able to vote for the real deal.

[Person Man]

I maintain that there will be no "next Trump."  Trump capitalized on the moment, and his coalition to win the primaries encompassed everything from former Democrats who left the party for good to hardline conservative (but of the "Country Club" variety) Republicans like my dad.  The things that people like about Trump (e.g., "telling it like it is" or "owning the libs" or whatever) aren't specific to ANYTHING about his ideology; they merely speak to his intolerance with playing by a set decorum that is dictated by liberals, and anyone can do that.  I think Trump has indeed *changed the game* in that you don't need to follow a politics playbook to win the nomination of either party for a while, but I think any Republican who conveys his or her willingness to stand up to Democratic lawmakers could "fill that void" to the extent it can be filled, and in some ways it just cannot, as it was unique to 2016.

If Trump wins in 2020, do you think Democrats will try to field someone who can "fill that void"? Could they? Would they? Do they even need to under current or potential circumstances?

[Person Man]

I maintain that there will be no "next Trump."  Trump capitalized on the moment, and his coalition to win the primaries encompassed everything from former Democrats who left the party for good to hardline conservative (but of the "Country Club" variety) Republicans like my dad.  The things that people like about Trump (e.g., "telling it like it is" or "owning the libs" or whatever) aren't specific to ANYTHING about his ideology; they merely speak to his intolerance with playing by a set decorum that is dictated by liberals, and anyone can do that.  I think Trump has indeed *changed the game* in that you don't need to follow a politics playbook to win the nomination of either party for a while, but I think any Republican who conveys his or her willingness to stand up to Democratic lawmakers could "fill that void" to the extent it can be filled, and in some ways it just cannot, as it was unique to 2016.

If Trump wins in 2020, do you think Democrats will try to field someone who can "fill that void"? Could they? Would they? Do they even need to under current or potential circumstances?

I fear that if Trump wins in 2020, he will exit office with a Bush-level image, and this will prompt Democrats to more or less double down on being the "Adult in the Room" party, effectively dooming our political system to AT LEAST four more years of completely dysfunctional workings.

You think Dems would run as antipopulists a third time?

[Person Man]

I maintain that there will be no "next Trump."  Trump capitalized on the moment, and his coalition to win the primaries encompassed everything from former Democrats who left the party for good to hardline conservative (but of the "Country Club" variety) Republicans like my dad.  The things that people like about Trump (e.g., "telling it like it is" or "owning the libs" or whatever) aren't specific to ANYTHING about his ideology; they merely speak to his intolerance with playing by a set decorum that is dictated by liberals, and anyone can do that.  I think Trump has indeed *changed the game* in that you don't need to follow a politics playbook to win the nomination of either party for a while, but I think any Republican who conveys his or her willingness to stand up to Democratic lawmakers could "fill that void" to the extent it can be filled, and in some ways it just cannot, as it was unique to 2016.

If Trump wins in 2020, do you think Democrats will try to field someone who can "fill that void"? Could they? Would they? Do they even need to under current or potential circumstances?

I fear that if Trump wins in 2020, he will exit office with a Bush-level image, and this will prompt Democrats to more or less double down on being the "Adult in the Room" party, effectively dooming our political system to AT LEAST four more years of completely dysfunctional workings.

What if there are no serious problems in a potential second term? Could you see Republicans abandoning him because he can't run again? Could that hurt the GOP in 2022?

For Trump to be in Bush's position, I would say that he won this election narrowly to the point where Democrats just need to flip a few moderately conservative states (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) to win back congress. In 2022, they do so and render Trump a lame duck. At this point, I would be "Yeah. People got what they wanted from him and are ready to discard him." I would say if Trump still holds the senate in 2023, he would have proven himself successful to the point that Democrats would have the potential to produce a copy cat.

[Person Man]

I don't think you'll get a "socially liberal" Republican; you will get a socially tolerant Republican.  John Kasich is a social conservative through and through ... yet he has tons of issues with Trump's rhetoric (on the record, anyway).  Any "GOP Clinton" will likely be a reaction to Democratic control for an extended period of time, as the Democratic Party exerts its power to enact progressive legislation.  Such a GOP nominee would hold together culturally and socially conservative voters, economic conservatives and regain several moderate areas, most likely in the suburbs.

Everyone stereotypes middle- and upper-middle class voters who have fled the GOP as "socially liberal," but they're not from my experience.  They like stability.  In the right climate, that is as socially conservative as it is socially liberal ... Trump is just giving "social conservatism" a very demagogic and unsavory face, bordering on reactionary appeal.

It's been four years and Atlas still doesn't get that fiscon-soclib barely exists outside the internet.

He literally said it wont be socially liberal, but just socially conservative in a more sophisticated non offensive way

Kind of like John McCain before he picked Palin? You would have to drop the more extreme views, of course.

I can see someone who is OK with rescheduling marijuana, around where me and Trump are at with guns, wants the current status quo on religious/LGBT issues, wants Roe overruled and to expand the federal late term abortion ban, but doesn’t want to defund PP or want to make abortion illegal on a federal level. Generally a states‘ rights conservative that’s willing to intervene federally for conservative controversies in  only in very extreme circumstances.

[Person Man]

Revisiting this, it's sort of a philosophical question- how can we find consensus in a heterogenous and post-truth society, where our globalized service and information economy has lost the unifying faith in linear and material progress that industrial societies like China have? I guess it could be America rallying behind government programs addressing an immediate crisis like in the 1930s, maybe a Green New Dealer administration after enough Americans are made uncomfortable by climate change, but I'm not sure we're ready to be that "unironic" yet if ever.

The remainder of the first half of the 21st century will be about testing how uncomfortable we can get without shouting "uncle" to reality.