If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (user search)
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  If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like?  (Read 3839 times)
Dead Parrot
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« on: August 26, 2020, 01:00:01 PM »

As pretty much everyone here is aware, one of the defining trends of American politics in the last few years is that our elections are much more polarized. More people than ever are voting straight-ticket, certain states/districts that used to be winnable for both parties are no longer competitive, etc. If this trend ever reverses itself, what will it look like? Will it be gradual, with a bunch of previously uncompetitive seats flipping in successive election cycles? Will it be very sudden, with another 1994-esque wave election? How will voting patterns shift in such a scenario?
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Dead Parrot
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Posts: 64


« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2020, 05:00:10 PM »

Political polarization will drop when the U.S. begins to regulate its businesses again in a way that reduces economic pressures on the 99.9%. I realize this sounds like more of a political platform-based take, but it was done 100 years ago & the simple fact of the matter is that people tend to be less politically radical when their economy is functioning correctly & their economic needs are met. Until this happens, it'll only get worse from here.

I guess I agree to some extent, but it also seems like a lot of what's driving polarization is structural rather than tied to specific policies. I happen to subscribe to the theory that our current environment is the result of super-polarized Baby Boomers being the electorate's dominant age demographic for the last ~25 years (hence why it picked up so sharply in the '90s when they overtook the Greatest Generation). If this is indeed the case, then we should expect polarization to ease as more and more Boomers depart and more liberal Millennials/Zoomers reach the age when people start voting regularly. My question is on how this transition will unfold. Are there any suprising places that will start trending Dem in the next few years? (I think NC Yankee has mentioned Mississippi as a possibility.) Will Republicans start to moderate as the market for belligerent Trumpist-style populism shrinks? All in all, given the massive age gaps we've been seeing in recent elections, it's hard to imagine that that's not going to have an impact moving forward...
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