If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (user search)
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  If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If/when depolarization happens, what will it look like?  (Read 3855 times)
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: September 08, 2020, 01:36:04 PM »

I don't think you'll get a "socially liberal" Republican; you will get a socially tolerant Republican.  John Kasich is a social conservative through and through ... yet he has tons of issues with Trump's rhetoric (on the record, anyway).  Any "GOP Clinton" will likely be a reaction to Democratic control for an extended period of time, as the Democratic Party exerts its power to enact progressive legislation.  Such a GOP nominee would hold together culturally and socially conservative voters, economic conservatives and regain several moderate areas, most likely in the suburbs.

Everyone stereotypes middle- and upper-middle class voters who have fled the GOP as "socially liberal," but they're not from my experience.  They like stability.  In the right climate, that is as socially conservative as it is socially liberal ... Trump is just giving "social conservatism" a very demagogic and unsavory face, bordering on reactionary appeal.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 01:21:46 AM »

I think there’ll be a “Clinton” who is socially liberal for a Republican at some point and is more like W on immigration.

This personal could never win the primary.

Social issues and immigration are the biggest issues for the GOP.

Most Republican voters don't vote for the Republicans because of fiscal issues.

Would your analysis in the early 1990s about what unites the Democratic Party hold true for 2020?  This is a hypothetical about the future, and to talk about it will require thinking much more creatively than viewing the GOP as it as now for decades and decades.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 11:16:43 AM »

I don't think you'll get a "socially liberal" Republican; you will get a socially tolerant Republican.  John Kasich is a social conservative through and through ... yet he has tons of issues with Trump's rhetoric (on the record, anyway).  Any "GOP Clinton" will likely be a reaction to Democratic control for an extended period of time, as the Democratic Party exerts its power to enact progressive legislation.  Such a GOP nominee would hold together culturally and socially conservative voters, economic conservatives and regain several moderate areas, most likely in the suburbs.

Everyone stereotypes middle- and upper-middle class voters who have fled the GOP as "socially liberal," but they're not from my experience.  They like stability.  In the right climate, that is as socially conservative as it is socially liberal ... Trump is just giving "social conservatism" a very demagogic and unsavory face, bordering on reactionary appeal.



It's been four years and Atlas still doesn't get that fiscon-soclib barely exists outside the internet.

In fairness to them, this is a common misconception perpetuated by the many fiscon/soclib Beltway powerbrokers and their allies.

No offense, but did you guys read what I wrote?  How do you think posting that chart and a quip were warranted responses to my post...?
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2020, 10:52:28 AM »

I maintain that there will be no "next Trump."  Trump capitalized on the moment, and his coalition to win the primaries encompassed everything from former Democrats who left the party for good to hardline conservative (but of the "Country Club" variety) Republicans like my dad.  The things that people like about Trump (e.g., "telling it like it is" or "owning the libs" or whatever) aren't specific to ANYTHING about his ideology; they merely speak to his intolerance with playing by a set decorum that is dictated by liberals, and anyone can do that.  I think Trump has indeed *changed the game* in that you don't need to follow a politics playbook to win the nomination of either party for a while, but I think any Republican who conveys his or her willingness to stand up to Democratic lawmakers could "fill that void" to the extent it can be filled, and in some ways it just cannot, as it was unique to 2016.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2020, 11:02:20 AM »

I maintain that there will be no "next Trump."  Trump capitalized on the moment, and his coalition to win the primaries encompassed everything from former Democrats who left the party for good to hardline conservative (but of the "Country Club" variety) Republicans like my dad.  The things that people like about Trump (e.g., "telling it like it is" or "owning the libs" or whatever) aren't specific to ANYTHING about his ideology; they merely speak to his intolerance with playing by a set decorum that is dictated by liberals, and anyone can do that.  I think Trump has indeed *changed the game* in that you don't need to follow a politics playbook to win the nomination of either party for a while, but I think any Republican who conveys his or her willingness to stand up to Democratic lawmakers could "fill that void" to the extent it can be filled, and in some ways it just cannot, as it was unique to 2016.

If Trump wins in 2020, do you think Democrats will try to field someone who can "fill that void"? Could they? Would they? Do they even need to under current or potential circumstances?

I fear that if Trump wins in 2020, he will exit office with a Bush-level image, and this will prompt Democrats to more or less double down on being the "Adult in the Room" party, effectively dooming our political system to AT LEAST four more years of completely dysfunctional workings.
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