Trump's 2016 suburban performance was pretty good

[Arizona Iced Tea]

At the time the general consensus was that Trump's 2016 performance in the suburbs was uniquely awful, and that conventional Rs could do better. However, that hasn't really happened in most sunbelt suburbs and like Bush 2004, and Romney 2012, Trump 2016 in the suburbs may never be repeated again.

"Only" D+2 in Cobb, and D+5 in Gwinnett is spectacular compared to Republicans today. Even Kemp couldn't do better in Cobb in 2022, and Raffensberger did much worse in Gwinnett compared to Trump 2016 despite being "better" Republicans for the suburbs.

Winning Johnson county KS today is pretty much impossible, but Trump was able to carry it by a small margin of 2pts. Even the boring, popular, Insurance Commissioner only won it by 3 in 2022 despite having incumbency advantage against a weak Dem opponent.

With the exception of Abbott in 2018, no Republican since Trump 2016 has managed margins like that in DFW. R+8.5 in Tarrant county is pretty much impossible for any R in the Lone Star State anymore. Trump also got R+17 and R+20 in Collin and Denton counties, which even downballot Rs are only winning by 10 and 15 respectively.

The Austin area has had the biggest shift though. Trump was the last Republican to carry Hays county, even Abbott couldn't pull it off. Even Wayne Christian in the R+15 railroad commissioner race lost it by 6 points. Trump carried Williamson county by double digits, in todays world Rs are struggling to pull off a narrow win there, let alone double digits. After 2022, I do not think Rs will win Williamson county in the foreseeable future.

There are a lot more suburban areas we can look at, but I guess my point is that although once viewed as rock-bottom, Trump's 2016 suburban performance today is borderline impossible for even a competent generic R to even match in a good year.

[Devils30]

And this is why Biden could still win even if he has defections on his left to third parties. Trump will not get the numbers in 2024 in places like Kent, Maricopa, Cobb, Ozaukee that he got in 2016.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

And this is why Biden could still win even if he has defections on his left to third parties. Trump will not get the numbers in 2024 in places like Kent, Maricopa, Cobb, Ozaukee that he got in 2016.

Honestly due to coalition shift, if Trump matches his 2020 suburban numbers he will probably still win those states now. Likewise if Rs in 2028 get Trump 2024 margins and so on.

[LabourJersey]

This thesis seems to be based on the assumption that the suburban trends you're talking about were inevitable.

In some cases that might be true - but in many other cases the trends happened *because* Trumpism, the Trump presidency, and the fallout from that.

[Smash255]

This thesis seems to be based on the assumption that the suburban trends you're talking about were inevitable.

In some cases that might be true - but in many other cases the trends happened *because* Trumpism, the Trump presidency, and the fallout from that.

Its a combination of the two in many ways.   Those suburban trends in many cases were happening prior to Trump (though Romney was able to soften them or in some cases reverse them for the time being).  However, Trump put the pedal to the metal and sped up the suburban trends.