Does anybody know how these cities voted in 2016 / 2018?
Charlotte (Mecklenberg County--- haven't checked to see if it spills over into other counties...
Clinton: 234,596 (67.0%)
Trump: 104,312 (29.8%) +37.2% DEM
Johnson: 11,453
TOTAL: 350,361
Note: I haven't parsed for split precincts yet...
Also: It doesn't break down Provisionals, Absentees, and Curbside by precinct, so there is an additional countywide votes of:
Clinton: 22,910 (73.5%)
Trump: 7,397 (23.7%) +49.8% DEM
TOTAL: 31,187
So basically DEM % numbers for Charlotte likely exceed the % numbers for Charlotte Precincts....
1.) So now that I've gotten off shift, have had a chance to examine the entire NC 2016 GE precinct data set, which I literally grabbed 25 Minutes before walking out the door to head into the Factory to provide prelim '16 GE PRES numbers for Charlotte, NC...
2.) I am not convinced that split-precincts in Charlotte would significantly increase or decrease the DEM/PUB margins within the City...
I might have missed 1 or two precincts, but the (16) Charlotte split precincts look something like:
Clinton: 45,417 (70.2%)
Trump: 17,436 (26.9%) + 43.3% DEM
TOTAL: 64,731
3.) All of Charlotte appears to be squarely located within Mecklenberg County, so don't believe I need to trip on crossing precincts across county lines...
4.) Let's look at Charlotte, NC 2016 GE PRES by breakdown:
Non-Split:Clinton: 189,179 (66.2%) + 35.8% DEM
Trump: 86,876 (30.4%)
Total: 285,630
Split:Clinton: 45,417 (70.2%)
Trump: 17,436 (26.9%) + 43.3% DEM
TOTAL: 64,731
4.) Absentee / Provisional / Curbside numbers I previously posted, which create a huge wildcard
Clinton: 22,910 (73.5%)
Trump: 7,397 (23.7%) +49.8% DEM
TOTAL: 31,187
I believe I have a data-set that breaks it down into the three categories listed (Obviously not by precinct), but at lease County data-sets for Absentee / Provisional / Curbside numbers...
Still, looks like Biden might be running a few points ahead of HRC in the City overall....
Expect in NC if we're gonna see major swings in the City will be because of TO (Turnout) in overwhelmingly DEM precincts, and perhaps equally or more significant within the "Soft-DEM" and "PUB Lean" precincts of the City....
I could go ahead and grab the 2018 NC GE Precinct data-set to take a look if anyone is curious and do a compare / contrast for the City...
NC has never really been my bag, on my radar, but yeah fond memories of flying into Charlotte back in the late '90s on a way to visit my buddy in SC with a whole "Riding the Dog" scene on the bus....
Still overall a 70-26% Biden Charlotte number isn't that bad (if true), especially considering that this is one of fast growing largest cities within the United States...
More than happy to exchange slightly lower raw % margins in exchange for a much large Total Vote number...
Still.. wouldn't be surprised if Latinos are slightly under-polled here, as well as voters <35 overall, so knows it is not unfathomable if Charlotte might end up going something like 73-24 Biden (If not higher)...
Obviously one of the fastest growing Metro areas in the US by % could be wild swings all around.
