Why was Missouri so close in 1988

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given HW won OH by double digits , MI by 9 points yet he only won MO by 4 which was a state Reagan also won by 20+ in 1984

[brucejoel99]

Apparently, MO reflected "a nationwide reconsolidation of base for the Republican Party, which took place through the 1980s."

[Calthrina950]

The Farm Crisis, which is what enabled Dukakis to sweep Iowa and overperform the Democratic baseline in South Dakota, Kansas, and Montana, was a major factor here. Bush ran significantly behind Reagan in Missouri's rural areas, and that, combined with the Dukakis strength in St. Louis and the traditional Democratic strongholds in the Missouri Bootheel, is why the state was close.

[Hope For A New Era]

Because Iowa was Dukakis +10. "Ancestrally Democratic" northeastern Missouri is powerful!

Combine that with the Leadbelt and Bootheel, which were also Democratic at the time, and you have a pretty strong showing.

St. Louis County suburbanites saved Bush in the state.


Pretty dramatic reversal compared to the state's current coalitions! Ancestral Dem-ness is completely gone in the northeast and Bootheel, and just barely clings on in the Leadbelt (really only in one county at this point).

Some counties along the river in the middle of the state (Saline, Ray, Howard, Callaway, Cole, Audrain) seem to have shifted left a bit, though. We'll see if that's unique to Galloway or part of a wider trend soon, I imagine.