10 weeks out, what your prediction?

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt Trump, whether we like it or not he still has a few more tricks up his sleeve. I expect a couple big surprises Thursday.

This. Plus the 538 forecast is tightening, Biden's only at 70% now, down from 73%.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tilt Trump due to massive and widespread attempts by the GOP and their allies to steal the election. (I'd put it at Lean Trump, but the Trump crime syndicate as as incompetent as they are evil.)

[wbrocks67]

Tilt Trump, whether we like it or not he still has a few more tricks up his sleeve. I expect a couple big surprises Thursday.

This. Plus the 538 forecast is tightening, Biden's only at 70% now, down from 73%.

The horror! Is this a joke post?

I really don't understand how anyone can look at what we're seeing now (i.e. the race being stagnant for MONTHS NOW, the average being Biden +9), and we're saying its Tilt Trump? Some people are really damaged and deluded by 2016.

[Chips]

I vote Tilt Biden. He wins 278-260.

Closest states:

FL: R+1
WI: D+2
PA: D+2
NH: D+2
NC: R+2
AZ: R+2
NV: D+3
MI: D+3
OH: R+3
GA: R+4
CO: D+5
MN: D+5
IA: R+6
VA: D+6
TX: R+8
NM: D+9

[Battista Minola 1616]

To be honest the option "3rd party miracle" in the poll is so tempting.
Even better than the joke options at the end of dead0man's polls.
I take it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nothing has happened to change my rating of Likely Biden.

[Red Wall]

2016 map with Michigan and NE-2 flipping to Biden and Minnesota flipping to Trump.

Only reason I have Michigan blue is the state hasn't been at the epicenter of riots yet unlike MN and WI and because Kent county RINOs don't like Trump. Given he won it by 0.2 and his margin at Kent was just a little under his statewide margin that's what probably turns Michigan into his 2004 NM or 2008 NC.

[wbrocks67]

I vote Tilt Biden. He wins 278-260.

Closest states:

FL: R+1
WI: D+2
PA: D+2
NH: D+2
NC: R+2
AZ: R+2
NV: D+3
MI: D+3
OH: R+3
GA: R+4
CO: D+5
MN: D+5
IA: R+6
VA: D+6
TX: R+8
NM: D+9

You really think TX, VA, CO, and GA are essentially going to vote the exact same as 2016? That makes no sense.

[YE]

Nothing has happened to change my rating of Likely Biden.

[LabourJersey]

I think people are wildly underestimating the huge increase in voter turnout that we will see this fall.

I think this election will have the highest turnout since 1968. That will create a few big issues with mail-in ballots, but on balance it will help Biden across the board.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In which world are GA and SC Senate races both in the same likeliness categories tho?

The chance that Osoff gets above 50% is about the same chance Harrison wins more votes than Lindsay Graham. In about 90% of the runoff simulations, Osoff loses.

There is one third party candidate on the ballot in Georgia. One. For the Libertarians.
The 2018 gubernatorial election also had one third party candidate (also a Libertarian who received <1 %) on the ballot and obviously didn't end up in a runoff. Even in 2014 the Libertarian in the race did not make much of an impact, also no runoff. So acting as if the runoff is inevitable is kinda ridiculous.

Georgia is more leaning left than SC, it went to Trump by 5 pts. while he won SC by 14.
There is a good chance that Trump loses Georgia according to your (detailed and well-researched) model, while it his highly unlikely to see him losing SC. Do you really expect that many ticket splitters in SC who vote for Trump but not for Graham (who basically sucked up to Trump completely)?
I could see making a case for seeing SC as Likely R and GA as Lean R (or maybeeee Lean R/Tossup or Lean R/Tilt R), but both being in the same likeliness category is simply not justifiable.

Normally, yes I would argee with you; there is a narrow window for the runoff and GA is roughly 10 points or so to the left of SC politically. The reason why my model outputs it as them having a simillar chance is because of the fundementals in the SC race; Harrison has raised A LOT of money, and matches or overperforms Biden's performance in polls. My model still gives Biden a 1/9 chance of so at winning SC on the presidential level, which means about 2/9s of the time, He wins or comes within 4 points of winning SC. Just a modest overperformance from Harrison goes a long way. As for GA his fundraising numbers have been ok but not great, and polling shows him underperforming Biden. GA is roughly a 50/50 state; most of the times where Biden loses GA he'll lose outright, sometimes it goes to a runoff, but typically a runoff occurs in a narrow Biden win nationally, meaning that the runoff environment is more likely to be slightly turned against the Democratic Party, which doesn't bode well in GA, a state with poor D turnout in off cycles. On average, if Biden is carrying GA by more than 3.8%, Osoff wins outright; he still has roughly a 1/4 chance of winning according to my model, but most of the time when Biden wins GA at the top of the ticket it's a narrow narrow win that causes the race to go to a runoff with an unfavorable environment to Ds, or Perdue just wins; most polls have him slightly outperforming Trump. I will admit Senate Statistical models are hard to make and often very imperfect because there's so many pieces to stitch together, but that's the reason my model outputs that outcome at this point in time.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden/Harris 51% 277 EV

Trump/Pence 48% 261 EV

Very 1976ish vibe these days.  I think the Biden lead is big enough to hold but it should be close and Trump will almost surely overperform polling in the Midwest and Northeast and underperform it in the Southwest.  Here, I'm betting this ends up being a wash in Florida, which is what saves Biden unless the unthinkable happens in Texas.  

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden/Harris 51% 277 EV

Trump/Pence 48% 261 EV

Very 1976ish vibe these days.  I think the Biden lead is big enough to hold but it should be close and Trump will almost surely overperform polling in the Midwest and Northeast and underperform it in the Southwest.  Here, I'm betting this ends up being a wash in Florida, which is what saves Biden unless the unthinkable happens in Texas.  

Trump is NOT getting 48% of the PV.

[here2view]

Biden — 319 (52%)
Trump — 219 (46%)

[WD]

Biden/Harris 51% 277 EV

Trump/Pence 48% 261 EV

Very 1976ish vibe these days.  I think the Biden lead is big enough to hold but it should be close and Trump will almost surely overperform polling in the Midwest and Northeast and underperform it in the Southwest.  Here, I'm betting this ends up being a wash in Florida, which is what saves Biden unless the unthinkable happens in Texas.  

>FL to the left of MN

lmao

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

269 to 259 and WI will go to OT and Ds will win 50 seats and 2 GA seats will go to OT

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

My prediction is fairly banal:  2016 map but Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  

However, I do think something like this would be the "most underrated possibility" for lack of a better term: 

Biden/Harris 51% 277 EV

Trump/Pence 48% 261 EV

Very 1976ish vibe these days.  I think the Biden lead is big enough to hold but it should be close and Trump will almost surely overperform polling in the Midwest and Northeast and underperform it in the Southwest.  Here, I'm betting this ends up being a wash in Florida, which is what saves Biden unless the unthinkable happens in Texas.  

[Devout Centrist]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals any longer, that's why Ds have given up on MT, SC and TX senate races. Senate race around the 279 blue wall includes: AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME and NC for 50 to 52 seats, with split votes in AZ, NC, GA and either IA and KS

Trump strategy is to steal MN with bland Tina Smith and contest VBM irregularities

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Might be a bit early, but if we’re going for Kanye meme maps:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Apparently between the convention and Kenosha this election just became a Trump landslide. He is going to win all 541 votes. Yes, 541. Because Trump's win is so massive that Greenland votes to join the union and naturally casts their three electoral votes for our eternal President!

[MATTROSE94]

I can see Joe Biden winning between 388 and 418 Electoral Votes, but it doesn’t really matter considering that Donald Trump is going to successfully maneuver to remain in office for the rest of his life.

[Suburbia]

Biden loses Wisconsin, but wins AZ/PA/MI/FL/NC/GA

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Lean Biden. He clearly has a steady advantage that we have no real reason will go away. But we are so vulnerable to external factors affecting whether everyone who wants to cast a ballot can; I am not going to sleep easy until the EC votes.