Would a President Dukakis have won re-election?

[Alben Barkley]

I doubt it. There’s probably still a recession, and Dukakis simply wasn’t a great candidate, especially not great enough to survive that sort of thing. If he won in 1988, it’s probably more because Bush failed to run the hard-hitting Atwater campaign he did than because Dukakis did great. On the other hand, Dukakis also likely won because people were getting sick of the GOP, and if he’s lucky he can blame the economy on them and sell the American people on the idea that he needs four more years to clean things up. (Obama sort of did this in 2012.) However, again I have a hard time seeing Dukakis selling that successfully. It’s also a bit of an unknown how the whole Gulf War goes down with Dukakis. From what I’ve read, he probably would have intervened as well. But who knows if it turns out the same? Likewise for the end of the Cold War; does Dukakis manage that as smoothly?

It also does depend in part on who the GOP candidate is? Dole? Kemp? Bush again???  Someone else entirely like Alexander or Lugar? Some of these candidates I think have a better shot than others.