Would a President Dukakis have won re-election?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dole would probably win the GOP nomination because he was the runner-up in 1988 & it - like real life's 1996 - would be considered "his turn." As real life's 1996 proved, though, Dole is an inept campaigner whose generational warfare rhetoric turned off many voters, & as we saw in real life's 2012, even a vulnerable incumbent President can still win re-election if they're facing a weak opponent. So I think this 1992 would probably be comparable to real life's 2012: either candidate would have a chance to win, but the incumbent President has the slight advantage because they're the incumbent.

I think Kemp would beat Dole in the primaries then win in November including sweeping into power a Republican House and Senate

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dole would probably win the GOP nomination because he was the runner-up in 1988 & it - like real life's 1996 - would be considered "his turn." As real life's 1996 proved, though, Dole is an inept campaigner whose generational warfare rhetoric turned off many voters, & as we saw in real life's 2012, even a vulnerable incumbent President can still win re-election if they're facing a weak opponent. So I think this 1992 would probably be comparable to real life's 2012: either candidate would have a chance to win, but the incumbent President has the slight advantage because they're the incumbent.

I think Kemp would beat Dole in the primaries then win in November including sweeping into power a Republican House and Senate

I'm sorry, I just don't see how Kemp beats Dole in the primaries, let alone wins in November, let alone does so in enough of a landslide to sweep congressional Republicans into power.

I think 1992 would be 1994 in a presidential year (the gulf war would stop 1990 from being 1994).


Also Kemp would have the support of the grassroots, the conservative base and Reagan probably would help him behind the scenes

[OSR stands with Israel]

If you flipped all the states Dukakis lost by less than 10 points in 1988 this is the map :

by 1992 Allocation those states are worth 275 EV. After an economic recession which would take place during his presidency(for Obama in 2012 it began in the bush years), the early 90s crime wave would absolutely mean that he’d have to basically pull an inside straight again to even beat A Dole/Deukmejian ticket .


I think more likely is it would resemble 2016 and 2020 where Dukakis like Trump pulled an inside straight to win the first time but despite facing a bland old candidate would face an tough path to being re-elected from day 1(and Dukakis unlike trump has far less room to lose) and a recession would make that even tougher .