Maine 1968 without Muskie

[Alcibiades]

Had Ed Muskie not been on the ticket in 1968, would Maine have voted Democratic? It is quite surprising that a previously staunch Republican state (although the Yankee hegemony had been broken by that point), which would not vote Democratic again until 1992, was one of only 13 states to vote for the losing Democratic ticket. On the other hand, Humphrey’s impressive margin of victory maybe suggests otherwise.

[One Term Floridian]

That was all Muskie. Humphrey wasn’t going to carry the state against Nixon without Muskie

[Podgy the Bear]

It was definitely Muskie.  LBJ did win ME by a huge margin in 1964--but he also won VT and NH by similar margins as well.  And Nixon won both states comfortably in 1968.

But the selection of Muskie as Humphrey's running mate probably didn't help the Democrats much nationally.  It was a true snowbelt ticket.  Humphrey was looking at border state or outer South candidates (considering Sen. Fred Harris of OK and Gov. Terry Sanford of NC), and there was even discussion of Gov. John McKeithen of LA (who did endorse Humphrey).    The selection of a candidate from one of these regions could have made some impact.

[brucejoel99]

It was the Muskie Maine-ia!!

(Sorry not sorry!)

[TDAS04]

I'm guessing Nixon would have carried it, but it could easily have been close.  After all, Carter came close to carrying Maine not once but twice.  Maine can be unpredictable.

[Sumner 1868]

It was definitely Muskie.  LBJ did win ME by a huge margin in 1964--but he also won VT and NH by similar margins as well.  And Nixon won both states comfortably in 1968.

But the selection of Muskie as Humphrey's running mate probably didn't help the Democrats much nationally.  It was a true snowbelt ticket.  Humphrey was looking at border state or outer South candidates (considering Sen. Fred Harris of OK and Gov. Terry Sanford of NC), and there was even discussion of Gov. John McKeithen of LA (who did endorse Humphrey).    The selection of a candidate from one of these regions could have made some impact.

Aside from Missouri, I don't think Humphrey ever had a chance down there. Race issues were way too hot that year.

[bagelman]

Nixon would have won at least one county that Hump won with Muskie.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

[Calthrina950]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more than 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

[Alcibiades]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more then 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

On a slightly different topic, do you know what the deal is with Androscoggin County? It was for a long time the most Democratic in the state until voting for Trump. Typically counties with such patterns are blue-collar, white ethnic counties, but in Maine I thought those would have been the northern French-Canadian counties, such as Aroostook, which was in fact very Republican prior to 1992, and is so once again.

[Calthrina950]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more then 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

On a slightly different topic, do you know what the deal is with Androscoggin County? It was for a long time the most Democratic in the state until voting for Trump. Typically counties with such patterns are blue-collar, white ethnic counties, but in Maine I thought those would have been the northern French-Canadian counties, such as Aroostook, which was in fact very Republican prior to 1992, and is so once again.

If you're asking how McGovern managed to hold the county, I don't know. Androscoggin was a Democratic stronghold from the days of the New Deal, and even before Roosevelt, it was more Democratic than the statewide average. I believe that it is a logging and mining area, which of course were historically places that leaned leftwards.

[Alcibiades]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more then 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

On a slightly different topic, do you know what the deal is with Androscoggin County? It was for a long time the most Democratic in the state until voting for Trump. Typically counties with such patterns are blue-collar, white ethnic counties, but in Maine I thought those would have been the northern French-Canadian counties, such as Aroostook, which was in fact very Republican prior to 1992, and is so once again.

If you're asking how McGovern managed to hold the county, I don't know. Androscoggin was a Democratic stronghold from the days of the New Deal, and even before Roosevelt, it was more Democratic than the statewide average. I believe that it is a logging and mining area, which of course were historically places that leaned leftwards.

I was more wondering why it of all places was the most Democratic in the state. But if it was a centre for logging and mining, that would make sense.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Perhaps a close race a la 1976.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more then 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

By what figures? The Atlas figures suggest a +0.2 D trend.

[Calthrina950]

Probably. Humphrey was a good fit, and The Southern Strategy was no certainly no good in the Northeast.

There's a reason the state voted left of the nation pretty much the entire way besides the candidacies of Ford or Bush Sr; including 1972.

Maine actually voted about 0.7% more Republican than the national average in 1972, but you're right that the state didn't overwhelmingly lean Republican in that election, certainly not like it typically did in elections prior to 1964 (such as in 1956, when Eisenhower got 71% in Maine while receiving 57% nationwide). And Margaret Chase-Smith of course, went down to defeat that year even while Nixon was carrying the state by more then 20 percentage points. Moreover, McGovern managed to win a county (Androscoggin), whereas in prior landslide years, Democrats usually were shut out of the state.

By what figures? The Atlas figures suggest a +0.2 D trend.

I'm not sure where you're seeing this. According to this page (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1972&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0), Maine trended 12.76% Republican compared to the 1968 election. And when discussing the national average, I was discussing Nixon's percentage of the vote in the state, compared to his national percentage. Nixon defeated McGovern 61.46-38.48%; the national vote was 60.67-37.52%. Nixon's margin in Maine (22.98%) was smaller then the nationwide margin (23.15%), but Maine's third-party vote was lower than the national average.