Can either party sweep the South in a 2020s election?

[Plankton5165]

Bush 43 was able to do it twice.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats no as Alabama would still vote republican in a 20 point democratic landslide


Republicans- if they win by an Obama 2008 style margin yes they can but realistically no

[brucejoel99]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

[brucejoel99]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

I don't need Del Tachi, I have the Census Bureau on my side.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

I don't need Del Tachi, I have the Census Bureau on my side.

Not you too.

[Dr. MB]

No. But if it happens it's 100x more likely to be a Republican than a Democrat. Really the only state that would need to flip is Virginia. Unlikely but not impossible.

As for Democrats uh they've got a pretty big barrier. Realistically they could only flip maybe a little over half of the southern states in a great year. Virginia, NC, SC, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and then you've got Mississippi and maybe Louisiana if it's a real landslide. If say, Andy Beshear is the nominee then maybe add Kentucky into that mix but even that's pretty unlikely. So you've got Tennessee, WV, Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma that are rock solid Republican. Yeah nope.

[Orser67]

As long as we're not counting DE+MD+DC as Southern, then (as MB basically said) for Republicans it's pretty much just a matter of winning big enough that they take VA. Considering that VA voted three points to the left of the nation in 2016, I certainly think it's possible that a Republican could sweep the South in the near-ish future.

For Democrats, no.

[TDAS04]

I don't think so, because I doubt Virginia will vote Republican in the near future.

[SevenEleven]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

I don't need Del Tachi, I have the Census Bureau on my side.

Stop.

[brucejoel99]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

I don't need Del Tachi, I have the Census Bureau on my side.

Stop.

Make me

[Del Tachi]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

They're all part of the South.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Is WV part of the South?

[Vosem]

If there is a Republican landslide, yes; Virginia will be drifting away from them but is by no means unwinnable.

Virginia result/US popular vote/Virginia-lean:
2000: R+9/D+0/R+9
2004: R+8/R+3/R+5
2008: D+6/D+7/R+1
2012: D+4/D+4/even
2016: D+5/D+2/D+3

The thing is that there's every indication this trend is still continuing and is still fast, and VA may soon be more Democratic than other long-shot states like CO or MN. But if there's a presidential year with an environment like the one we saw in 2010 or 2014 it seems like VA probably still flips in the 2020s.

[tagimaucia]

I think at this point, Rs could only win Virginia with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan type nominee, which isn't gonna happen unless Rs are locked out of the presidency for 12+ years a la Bill Clinton, or a great depression like calamity under an incumbent Democratic president. 

The Democrats have zero chance of winning the entire south in a presidential election.

[TDAS04]

Fun fact:  Republicans have never swept the Confederacy three times in a row.

[Sol]

I don't recall W. winning Delaware, Maryland, or Washington, D.C.

Not this again.

In b4 Del Taichi unironically argues they are part of the South.

I don't need Del Tachi, I have the Census Bureau on my side.

Plus history and settlement patterns!

Though I suppose there's an argument to be made for treating Delaware north of the canal as not southern.

[Samof94]

For a GOP Victory, their “Clinton” equivalent could pull it off. Imagine a center right politician who is more socially tolerant(even W-ish on Immigration).

[MT Treasurer]

No. I could maybe envision a scenario in which the population of enough Southern metros just explodes beyond all expectations + Democrats rapidly and substantially narrow their deficits with white voters so as to flip most of those states by 2028, but West Virginia, Kentucky, and especially Arkansas are not flipping under our current or any other likely alignment of the two party's coalitions, and 2028 is obviously stretching it for AL, OK, TN (although more likely than WV/AR/KY).

Democrats aren’t losing VA under any circumstances.

[Pericles]

VA is competitive enough that it could flip in a big Republican win, and Republicans certainly have a much higher floor than Democrats. Places like Arkansas and Tennessee are Safe Republican no matter what, especially at the presidential level, even in a huge landslide for Democrats.

[Chips]

If the GOP won the national popular vote by 3 or 4 points they most likely would carry Virginia.