2025 Canada election question

[Benjamin Frank]

...if the NDP incumbent retires.

I left off Rosemont-La Petite Patrie held by New Democrat Alexandre Boulerice because it's too easy to vote for. Yes, I know there will be riding redistibution before the next election. I don't expect the redistribution to alter things all that much.

I don't think the NDP is totally disappearing by any means. For instance, when Liberal Kevin Lamoureux retires I would expect the NDP to take back Winnipeg North, and there are a number of ridings that are NDP-Conservative battlegrounds presently held by the Conservatives like Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Kootenay-Columbia, Essex and some ridings in Alberta and Saskatchewan and maybe a few more in Ontario.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Probably none, I don't think 2025 is likely to be an election where the Liberals gain seats, especially not ones that are currently safe NDP. But of these four, Vancouver Kingsway. That riding doesn't really have the fundamentals of an NDP+25 seat, so I assume Don Davies is a major factor.

[King of Kensington]

Even with the GTA-ization of Metro Van voting patterns, there's still an "orange corridor" running from East Van to the eastern suburbs.

[DL]

Probably none, I don't think 2025 is likely to be an election where the Liberals gain seats, especially not ones that are currently safe NDP. But of these four, Vancouver Kingsway. That riding doesn't really have the fundamentals of an NDP+25 seat, so I assume Don Davies is a major factor.

Do you realize that Vancouver-Kingsway is one of the most consistently NDP voting areas in Canada dating back to 1935?! I think Davies has some profile, but its not all about him - the NDP just has extremely strong "brand loyalty" in eastern City of Vancouver and you that also from the way the BC NDP totally dominated the two provincial seats that make up federal vancouver Kingsway. If davies were to retire there would be no shortage of high profile NDPers vying for the nomination

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Probably none, I don't think 2025 is likely to be an election where the Liberals gain seats, especially not ones that are currently safe NDP. But of these four, Vancouver Kingsway. That riding doesn't really have the fundamentals of an NDP+25 seat, so I assume Don Davies is a major factor.

Do you realize that Vancouver-Kingsway is one of the most consistently NDP voting areas in Canada dating back to 1935?! I think Davies has some profile, but its not all about him - the NDP just has extremely strong "brand loyalty" in eastern City of Vancouver and you that also from the way the BC NDP totally dominated the two provincial seats that make up federal vancouver Kingsway. If davies were to retire there would be no shortage of high profile NDPers vying for the nomination

Vancouver Kingsway did vote Liberal in all the Chretien/Martin elections, and the Liberals did better there in 2008 (Davies' first election) than in any of the Trudeau elections. The fact that Liberal support under Trudeau hasn't recovered to even Dion levels, suggests to me that Davies gets support from a decent number of voters who might have gone Liberal in another riding.

But no I'm not saying Kingsway is in any way likely to go Liberal, I just think it's more likely than any of the others. I guess the same could be said about New West-Burnaby, but the Liberals typically get less votes there than in Kingsway. Windsor West has a Liberal tradition, but SW Ontario in general has trended massively away from the LPC. And Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke, with the Greens collapsing and most of their support going to the NDP, it's hard to see it going Liberal.

[adma]

Probably none, I don't think 2025 is likely to be an election where the Liberals gain seats, especially not ones that are currently safe NDP. But of these four, Vancouver Kingsway. That riding doesn't really have the fundamentals of an NDP+25 seat, so I assume Don Davies is a major factor.

Do you realize that Vancouver-Kingsway is one of the most consistently NDP voting areas in Canada dating back to 1935?! I think Davies has some profile, but its not all about him - the NDP just has extremely strong "brand loyalty" in eastern City of Vancouver and you that also from the way the BC NDP totally dominated the two provincial seats that make up federal vancouver Kingsway. If davies were to retire there would be no shortage of high profile NDPers vying for the nomination

Vancouver Kingsway did vote Liberal in all the Chretien/Martin elections, and the Liberals did better there in 2008 (Davies' first election) than in any of the Trudeau elections. The fact that Liberal support under Trudeau hasn't recovered to even Dion levels, suggests to me that Davies gets support from a decent number of voters who might have gone Liberal in another riding.

But no I'm not saying Kingsway is in any way likely to go Liberal, I just think it's more likely than any of the others. I guess the same could be said about New West-Burnaby, but the Liberals typically get less votes there than in Kingsway. Windsor West has a Liberal tradition, but SW Ontario in general has trended massively away from the LPC. And Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke, with the Greens collapsing and most of their support going to the NDP, it's hard to see it going Liberal.

I do agree that the Chretien/Martin era factors into Vancouver-Kingsway; in its present incarnation, it's really more of a meat-and-potatoes ethno-tinged urban seat, literally and figuratively halfway btw/Vancouver East and Vancouver South.  And were Davies not running, it could well have been vulnerable to '15-style Justinmania in a way that would have been inconceivable for Vancouver East.  Plus, and again echoes of the Chretien/Martin years, it'd be likelier to be a *pure* Lib-NDP race; whereas the other BC ridings have more of a history of Libs and Cons and whomever else splitting the spoils.

But given it's the LPC we're dealing with, maybe the proper answer to this question is: "all of them".

[CumbrianLefty]

2025 is a long way away, not much more to say than that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor West, easily.  Kingsway is a pretty reliable NDP seat now. Windsor, however loves its long-time incumbents, so when Masse retires, it could be a toss-up. Not too long ago it was a reliable OLP seat when it was held by Pupatello.

[DL]

Windsor West, easily.  Kingsway is a pretty reliable NDP seat now. Windsor, however loves its long-time incumbents, so when Masse retires, it could be a toss-up. Not too long ago it was a reliable OLP seat when it was held by Pupatello.

I love how her nickname was "poo-poo"

[adma]

Windsor West, easily.  Kingsway is a pretty reliable NDP seat now. Windsor, however loves its long-time incumbents, so when Masse retires, it could be a toss-up. Not too long ago it was a reliable OLP seat when it was held by Pupatello.

And of course, before Masse federally was...Herb Gray.

Also, for all the talk about SW Ontario trending away from the Libs, let's not forget that Windsor West is an urban riding, the most "central" of the Windsor ridings, with less of a blue-collar and more of a professional-class element than Windsor-Tecumseh (and U of Windsor as well).  So it'd be *very* Lib-amenable (and not especially CPC-amenable) in the event that the NDP tanks...