Cook gubernatorial ratings

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The only real complain I have is that MD should be lean D at least

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

MD is Safe D, even with Boyd Rutherford.

Don't @ Me.

[AGA]

These are D hack ratings.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

WI, KS, and GA should be tossups, and MD should be Lean/Likely D.

[Chips]

Kansas as Lean Democratic is bold. Kelly is not in a bad spot, but this is still a tossup.

[Astatine]

These are D hack ratings.

Wouldn't really call this D hackery, it's more like bipartisan malarkey.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These are D hack ratings.

Safe R for MA when Baker hasn't declared isn't D hack.

[AGA]

These are D hack ratings.

Wouldn't really call this D hackery, it's more like bipartisan malarkey.

These are D hack ratings.

Safe R for MA when Baker hasn't declared isn't D hack.

I didn't see MA, so in this case, these are just bad ratings. CT and RI aren't Safe D, NV isn't Likely D. FL is at least Likely R. KS isn't Lean D while GA is Lean R.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Unless something weird happens with TMac, VA is safer than NJ.

[Suburbia]

Unless something weird happens with TMac, VA is safer than NJ.

Yes, VA is safer than NJ, but at the end of the day, both remain in D hands.....

MD is Lean D....Michael Steele can make it competitive for Republicans.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steele would win the Gov race, we should of elected Mfume to Senate in 2006, Cardin has been a disappointment

Electing Steele to Gov won't matter to balance of power this time

[AGA]

Unless something weird happens with TMac, VA is safer than NJ.

Why? Isn't Murphy popular?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

These are the worst ratings I've perhaps ever seen from Cook.


"Tossup MD, Lean R GA, Safe R AK, Safe D CT" Not to mention, NV and VA somehow being in the same category.


These are absolute junk ratings.

They never learn their lessons after "Lean D Doug Jones", "Lean R Cory Gardner", McConnell and Perdue both as "Likely R" and "Likely D Heitkamp" while simultaneously rating Angus King's race as "Lean D".

Tossup Bernie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Less partisan in Midterms as opposed to Prez was prevelent in KS, OH Gov and Senate, NC House in 2018


With Sununu leading Hassan in NH Senate, I can see a less partisan result in Midterms and D's still hold onto all 3, branches of Congress in a Neutral D 2.9 Election result.

It's still VBM not same day voting which D's fo better at

[kwabbit]

One would think incumbency is still a pretty potent force in gubernatorial contests held in midterm years

It might be in races that actually have incumbents. But ratings like MD as tossup, when the Republican nominee will not be the incumbent governor. It's an open race in a state that Biden just won by 35 points, one where the Democrats are set to nominate an extremely popular statewide officeholder in Franchot.

[Meatball Ron]

Oof......what.....

CT: Safe D --> Likely D (the last several CT-Gov races have been close, and Lamont is unpopular. I originally had Lean D, but the GOP brand has only gotten more toxic in this state and there is a clear pattern with these races)

RI: Safe D --> Likely D (similar dynamics to CT - you could argue Lean D, but there isn't really a GOP bench here and McKee will likely/hopefully be taken out in the primary by a stronger Dem)

NM: Safe D --> Likely D (MLG has had a handful of controversies, NM has created problems in past Dem midterms (low turnout in particular), and this year's Senate race there was unexpectedly close)

ME: Likely D --> Lean D (very elastic state in a Dem midterm)

NV: Likely D --> Lean D (swing state in a Dem midterm)

KS: Lean D --> Toss-Up (red state in a Dem midterm)

WI: Lean D --> Toss-Up (Dems have a notoriously hard time here in Dem midterms and Evers has had a challenging term)

MD: Toss-Up --> Likely D (not sure I need to say much on this)

FL: Lean R --> Likely R (FLDP...enough said)

GA: Lean R --> Toss-Up (not sure this requires any explanation)

IA: Likely R --> Safe R (not happening in a Dem midterm...we couldn't crack it in '18 and Reynolds is probably more popular now than she was then)

TX: Likely R --> Safe R (this is not the year, or the race, in which Texas will go blue)

NH: Safe R --> Toss-Up (with an asterisk that it moves to Safe R if Sununu decides to run for reelection rather than Senate, as is expected)

VT / MA: Keep as Safe R but should come with an asterisk that both races become Likely D in the not-unlikely event that the incumbent chooses to retire

AK: Safe R --> Likely R (too much uncertainty with the Governor's unpopularity and the new top four primary system)

SD: Safe R --> Likely R (this should at least be on the radar for upset watch in light of how uniquely horribly this Governor has botched COVID response)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa, OH lean R

MI, IL, WI, KS Lean D

Pure Tossup AZ, GA and MD  Safe R if Steele runs

Safe CO, NH, NV, CA, NY, MA, OR, FL, MN