Will Cuomo carry Staten Island in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in 2022? He carried it in all his previous elections. Will the streak continue?

[NewYorkExpress]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

[Tekken_Guy]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

Tompkins?

[NewYorkExpress]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

Tompkins?

College County or not , Cuomo is literally hated upstate and on Long Island.

[Mr.Phips]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

Lol at Cuomo not winning Queens, Westchester, and Albany.

[Real Texan Politics]

How much did Cuomo win Staten Island before? I imagine it must've been close both times.

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt it.

[KaiserDave]

How much did Cuomo win Staten Island before? I imagine it must've been close both times.

Not really

He won 54/43 in 2014, and 50/48 in 2018. So it got a lot closer, but the first time it wasn't close at all. In 2010 he won it by around the same as 2014.

[Alcibiades]

Pretty unlikely, although interesting to note he previously did do better here (and on Long Island) than national Democrats, while being despised Upstate - literally did worse there in 2014 and 2018 than Hillary in 2016.

[LabourJersey]

No he won't, but I think it'll probably be close.

[Red Wall]

He did worse in the 2018 D wave than in the 2014 R wave so no. Plus Cuomo fatigue in Staten Island is probably just slightly below than in Upstate where he is the most hated given that he'll be running for a fourth term. His italian surname won't save him there this time.

[President Johnson]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

[Suburbia]

Probably not, but it will be close.

[ꙮ]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.

The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.

[Roll Roons]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.

The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.

Nassau is far from a lock for Cuomo. I’m curious as to how Schumer will do. In the past, he’s gotten a ton of crossover appeal upstate.

[Calthrina950]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.

The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.

Nassau is far from a lock for Cuomo. I’m curious as to how Schumer will do. In the past, he’s gotten a ton of crossover appeal upstate.

I suspect Schumer will do much worse in Upstate then he did in 2004, 2010, and 2016, and will have a performance similar to that of Kristen Gillibrand in 2018. She herself did much worse than she had in 2010 and 2012, losing many of the Upstate counties that she had previously carried. As last year's Senatorial races showed, polarization is now heavily influencing them as well-the same kind of polarization as can be found at the presidential level. Senatorial candidates have become more associated with their party, and less capable of breaking away from its brand, although there continue to be some exceptions (i.e. Susan Collins, Joe Manchin, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester).

[It’s so Joever]

Honestly...if he wants to run again, he will be lucky to win Nassau.

[AGA]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

Tompkins?

College County or not , Cuomo is literally hated upstate and on Long Island.

Lol what? Tompkins County is Titanium D. You realize his favorability rating is 57% in the latest Siena Poll?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=74yj

He will win by 10 or so.

[Suburbia]

If Max Rose runs for a rematch against Malliotakis in 2022, Rose, Schumer and Cusick could pull Cuomo to the finish line on SI.

[Chips]

Possibly.

[Suburbia]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.

The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.

I think Cuomo can win Nassau, Nassau is more diverse than Suffolk. If Cuomo loses the suburbs, but NYC cancels out the rest of the state, a lot of Senate and Assembly Democrats will go down on the ballot....

[LabourJersey]

Honestly...if he wants to run again, he will be lucky to win Nassau.

What?

Cuomo won Nassau in '18 by like 10 points. Even if he very much underperforms he will win it.

[Captain_Tom]

Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in 2022? He carried it in all his previous elections. Will the streak continue?

No way.  I think Republicans actually have a seriously good chance to win in 2022.