2010 senate with McCain as president

[MainstreamCon]

McCain wins the presidency in 2008 in a shocking upset. The economy then improves. How would the 2010 senate elections turn out then?

[Roll Roons]

Third consecutive bloodbath for Republicans.

Democrats gain Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania (Specter retires), and possibly Louisiana, New Hampshire and even Kansas if Sebelius runs.

They hold all their seats, including Arkansas (Boozman doesn't run) and North Dakota (Dorgan runs and Hoeven doesn't).

[brucejoel99]

The Republicans are utterly destroyed in 2010, with Democrats increasing their majorit[y] in... the Senate. They'd gain the Senate seats in NH, PA (& no, not hold it; the odds are that Arlen Specter doesn't switch parties in this scenario, but will probably lose reelection, & maybe doesn't even get that far, as he could very well lose the GOP nomination to Pat Toomey or somebody else), OH, IA, MO, NC, GA, FL, KY, AZ, LA (with Vitter's scandals, though if things look really bad, the Republicans could pressure him to step aside in favor of Gen. Russel Honoré), SC (if the Democrats get a popular candidate to challenge DeMint), & AK. Obama keeps his Senate seat & Feingold wins reelection. Whether or not the Democrats hold AR may depend on the mood in the Democratic base, as Blanche Lincoln could've very well been successfully primaried by Bill Halter. Also keep in mind the people that McCain would've been likely to add to his administration. Joe Lieberman would've almost certainly been leaving his Senate seat to become McCain's Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense. This means that a more doctrinaire Democrat would likely win his seat in a 2009 special election. Lindsey Graham would very probably get a Cabinet position as well, meaning that Democrats could have an outside chance of winning his Senate seat in SC in a 2010 special election... It also seems likely to me that Bob Bennet wouldn't lose his primary & would keep his seat in Utah.

Keep in mind, though, that a scenario where McCain wins in 2008, no matter how narrowly, means much weaker Democratic coattails nationally. Republicans like Norm Coleman in MN, Gordon Smith in OR, & Ted Stevens in AK would've all likely won reelection that year, & Mary Landrieu would've likely lost reelection in LA too. (With regards to MN & OR, though, I think the Democrats would still get them anyway come 2014.) But regardless, even if the Democrats only gained 5 Senate seats (& lost 1 seat as well) in 2008 because of lower coattails with a McCain win, that's 51 - 1 + 5 (2008) + 14 (2010), meaning you'd have up to 69 Democratic Senators after 2010. Add the possible Senate gains in NV, AZ, MS (if Musgrove runs again), TN, IN, & TX in 2012, & you could see 75 Democratic Senators after 2012.

[NewYorkExpress]

Changes from IRL 2010:

Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick defeats Appointed Senator John Shadegg 49-47 (D Gain)

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln 52-47 (R Gain)

Colorado: Ken Salazar defeats Bill Owens 54-45 (D Hold)

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Chris Shays 59-40 (D Hold)

Delaware: Joe Biden defeats Mike Castle 58-41 (D Hold)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Kendrick Meek (Charlie Crist runs for reelection and wins) 50-49.7 (R Hold)

Illinois: Barack Obama defeats Mark Kirk 50-47 (D Hold)

Indiana: Evan Bayh defeats Dan Coats 53-45 (D Hold)

Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius defeats Jerry Moran 49-48 (D Gain)

Kentucky: Jack Conway defeats Rand Paul 50-47 (D Gain)

Missouri: Robin Carnahan defeats Roy Blunt 49-47 (D Gain)

Nevada: Harry Reid defeats Sharron Angle 60-37 (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Paul Hodes defeats Kelly Ayotte 49-46.9 (D Gain)

North Carolina: Elaine Marshall defeats Richard Burr 50-49 (D Gain)

North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Byron Dorgan 49-48.9 (R Gain)

Ohio: Lee Fisher defeats Rob Portman 51-46 (D Gain)

Massachusetts (Special): Martha Coakley defeats Scott Brown 55-44 (D Hold)

West Virginia (Special): Joe Manchin defeats John Raese 59-40 (D Hold)

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak defeats Arlen Specter 51.25-48.75 (D Gain)

Utah: Bob Bennett defeats Jim Matheson 60-39 (D Hold)

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold defeats Ron Johnson 53-46 (D Hold)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Why would there still be a special election in Delaware?

[Left Wing]

Brad Henry and Tom Daschle could have won if they ran in a McCain midterm. I see that as more likely than Melancon or Hodes pulling it off.

[NewYorkExpress]

Why would there still be a special election in Delaware?

My bad. I thought Biden's seat actually was up in 2010.

Then again, I can actually see McCain appointing Biden to something in his cabinet (or Obama)

[KYRockefeller]

Without a Tea Party movement, I don't see Rand Paul winning the GOP primary in KY and Trey Grayson is the nominee and probably beats Jack Conway.

[Left Wing]

Without a Tea Party movement, I don't see Rand Paul winning the GOP primary in KY and Trey Grayson is the nominee and probably beats Jack Conway.

No way Conway loses with McCain as president.

[KYRockefeller]

Without a Tea Party movement, I don't see Rand Paul winning the GOP primary in KY and Trey Grayson is the nominee and probably beats Jack Conway.

No way Conway loses with McCain as president.

Really?  Every time Conway sought a big office in this state beyond attorney general, voters rejected him.  I just fail to see him winning a statewide race like that.

[Left Wing]

Without a Tea Party movement, I don't see Rand Paul winning the GOP primary in KY and Trey Grayson is the nominee and probably beats Jack Conway.

No way Conway loses with McCain as president.

Really?  Every time Conway sought a big office in this state beyond attorney general, voters rejected him.  I just fail to see him winning a statewide race like that.

It’s impressive be only lost by 10 points in the tea party wave. I think with a weaker opponent and a very pro-dem environment he could win by up to nine points.