USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26283 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #250 on: October 22, 2020, 04:49:23 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.5 (+0.2)
Trump 42.1 (n/c)

Traditional
Biden 54.1 (n/c)
Trump 41.6 (+0.3)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #251 on: October 23, 2020, 04:50:38 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.6 (+0.1)
Trump 42.2 (+0.1)

Traditional
Biden 54.3 (+0.2)
Trump 41.6 (n/c)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #252 on: October 24, 2020, 04:50:27 AM »

Probabilistic (Biden +11)
Biden 53.4 (-0.2)
Trump 42.5 (+0.3)

Traditional (Biden +12)
Biden 54.2 (-0.1)
Trump 41.9 (+0.3)
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #253 on: October 24, 2020, 03:01:52 PM »

Probabilistic (Biden +11)
Biden 53.4 (-0.2)
Trump 42.5 (+0.3)

Traditional (Biden +12)
Biden 54.2 (-0.1)
Trump 41.9 (+0.3)

Yeah herding has begun.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #254 on: October 25, 2020, 04:49:18 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +10.7
Biden 53.2 (-0.2)
Trump 42.6 (+0.1)

Traditional: Biden +12.0
Biden 54.0 (-0.2)
Trump 42.0 (+0.1)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #255 on: October 26, 2020, 04:48:20 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.2
Biden 53.6 (+0.4)
Trump 42.3 (-0.3)

Traditional: Biden +12.6
Biden 54.3 (+0.3)
Trump 41.7 (-0.3)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #256 on: October 26, 2020, 05:56:15 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.2
Biden 53.6 (+0.4)
Trump 42.3 (-0.3)

Traditional: Biden +12.6
Biden 54.3 (+0.3)
Trump 41.7 (-0.3)

Hunter sex tape bump.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #257 on: October 26, 2020, 06:43:58 AM »

Here's what this poll looks like when you take the 7-day tracker, make bias adjustments for each little slice of the 14-day "cycle," and then add some smoothing.


Updated this again because why not:

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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #258 on: October 27, 2020, 04:49:50 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +10.8
Biden 53.3 (-0.3)
Trump 42.5 (+0.2)

Traditional: Biden +12.1
Biden 54.1 (-0.2)
Trump 42.1 (+0.4)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #259 on: October 28, 2020, 04:51:35 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.4
Biden 53.7 (+0.4)
Trump 42.3 (-0.2)

Traditional: Biden +12.6
Biden 54.4 (+0.3)
Trump 41.8 (-0.3)
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #260 on: October 28, 2020, 11:32:27 AM »

girl she gettin wider
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Holmes
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« Reply #261 on: October 28, 2020, 11:34:42 AM »


Widen Biden
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Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #262 on: October 28, 2020, 11:48:05 AM »


Wyden/Biden 2008?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #263 on: October 28, 2020, 11:51:13 AM »

It feels like this just keeps bouncing back and forth everyday. Is there a graph of the results over time anywhere?
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #264 on: October 28, 2020, 12:18:16 PM »

The 7-day average is actually surging right now, to a degree that I don't quite believe it + think there might be some kind of data problem again like the one they fixed a few weeks ago.  Look at my graph or compare the 14-day results today to those from 14 / 28 / 42 / etc. days ago and you'll see what I mean.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #265 on: October 28, 2020, 12:21:19 PM »

The 7-day average is actually surging right now, to a degree that I don't quite believe it + think there might be some kind of data problem again like the one they fixed a few weeks ago.  Look at my graph or compare the 14-day results today to those from 14 / 28 / 42 / etc. days ago and you'll see what I mean.

...or late undecided movement towards Biden
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #266 on: October 28, 2020, 12:28:45 PM »

I hope so!
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #267 on: October 29, 2020, 04:49:16 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.2
Biden 53.5 (-0.2)
Trump 42.4 (+0.1)

Traditional: Biden +12.2
Biden 54.2 (-0.2)
Trump 42.0 (+0.2)
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Horus
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« Reply #268 on: October 29, 2020, 05:51:18 AM »

The 7-day average is actually surging right now, to a degree that I don't quite believe it + think there might be some kind of data problem again like the one they fixed a few weeks ago.  Look at my graph or compare the 14-day results today to those from 14 / 28 / 42 / etc. days ago and you'll see what I mean.

Yeah, the 7 day just reversed itself and then some, I'm just following the 14 day which is pretty stable.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #269 on: October 30, 2020, 04:49:38 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.0
Biden 53.5 (n/c)
Trump 42.5 (+0.1)

Traditional: Biden +12.1
Biden 54.3 (+0.1)
Trump 42.2 (+0.2)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #270 on: October 31, 2020, 05:59:21 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.1
Biden 53.5 (n/c)
Trump 42.4 (-0.1)

Traditional: Biden +12.3
Biden 54.3 (n/c)
Trump 42.0 (-0.2)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #271 on: November 01, 2020, 05:57:11 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +11.0
Biden 53.5 (n/c)
Trump 42.6 (+0.2)

Traditional: Biden +12.4
Biden 54.4 (+0.1)
Trump 42.0 (n/c)
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #272 on: November 01, 2020, 06:56:43 PM »

Interesting this tracker has had essentially zero movement for over a week now. Looks like everyone's made up their mind.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #273 on: November 02, 2020, 05:52:15 AM »

Probabilistic: Biden +10.5
Biden 53.3 (-0.2)
Trump 42.8 (+0.2)

Traditional: Biden +11.8
Biden 54.0 (-0.4)
Trump 42.2 (+0.2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #274 on: November 02, 2020, 05:54:11 AM »

Interesting this tracker has had essentially zero movement for over a week now. Looks like everyone's made up their mind.

You mean like a month? or more? This thing has barely budged at like Biden 10-12 for forever
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