USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26287 times)
tagimaucia
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« Reply #225 on: October 10, 2020, 08:14:20 AM »
« edited: October 11, 2020, 06:53:08 AM by tagimaucia »

Here's what this poll looks like when you take the 7-day tracker, make bias adjustments for each little slice of the 14-day "cycle," and then add some smoothing.



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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #226 on: October 10, 2020, 10:03:31 AM »

10/9

Probabilistic
Biden 53.1 (+0.3)
Trump 41.9 (-0.4)

Traditional
Biden 53.6 (+0.3)
Trump 41.4 (-0.5)

The "saying f[inks] on Rush Limbaugh's show" bump 👀
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #227 on: October 11, 2020, 06:57:37 AM »

10/10

Probabilistic:
Biden 53.4% (+0.3)
Trump 41.6% (-0.3)

Traditional:
Biden 54.0% (+0.4)
Trump 41.1% (-0.3)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #228 on: October 12, 2020, 05:04:10 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.5 (+0.1)
Trump 41.5 (-0.1)

Traditional
Biden 54.2 (+0.2)
Trump 40.9 (-0.2)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #229 on: October 12, 2020, 05:08:18 AM »

Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent
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roxas11
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« Reply #230 on: October 12, 2020, 07:07:06 AM »

Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent

Here is a fact
No modern presdent who failed to get at least a 50 percent approvel at this point has ever gone on to win reelection. At this same point in time both Obama and bush was at or over 50 percent

The only predidents who failed to get a 50 perecent approvel rating a few weeks before an election was Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush


The reality is Trump being in the mid 40s percent is simply not going to cut it anymore and if he is at 46 percent on election day than it is game over for both him and the GOP

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BobbieMac
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« Reply #231 on: October 12, 2020, 11:00:32 AM »

Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent

You keep pushing this Trump approval lie, its kinda sad. Trump is currently at 43.5% in the averages. Polls indicate he will struggle to hit this nationally.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #232 on: October 12, 2020, 11:05:58 AM »

Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent
LMAO
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #233 on: October 13, 2020, 04:55:09 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 54.0 (+0.5)
Trump 41.3 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.7 (+0.5)
Trump 40.5 (-0.4)
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #234 on: October 13, 2020, 07:27:33 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 54.0 (+0.5)
Trump 41.3 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.7 (+0.5)
Trump 40.5 (-0.4)
This is ridiculous
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #235 on: October 14, 2020, 05:00:01 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.9 (-0.1)
Trump 41.4 (+0.1)

Traditional
Biden 54.6 (-0.1)
Trump 40.7 (+0.2)
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #236 on: October 14, 2020, 05:29:53 AM »

Looks like Trump is making a big rebound. Very scared.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #237 on: October 14, 2020, 05:30:20 AM »

^ lol
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #238 on: October 15, 2020, 04:56:45 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.7 (-0.2)
Trump 41.6 (+0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.6 (nc)
Trump 40.5 (-0.2)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #239 on: October 16, 2020, 04:53:50 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.4 (-0.3)
Trump 41.9 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 54.1 (-0.5)
Trump 40.8 (+0.3)
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Hammy
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« Reply #240 on: October 16, 2020, 05:01:27 AM »

First time I've checked this thread in awhile, what's the difference between probabilistic and traditional as far as methodology?
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Granite City
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« Reply #241 on: October 16, 2020, 05:56:53 AM »

First time I've checked this thread in awhile, what's the difference between probabilistic and traditional as far as methodology?

Presumably they do a little adjustment based off the social contacts vote question and the others in the state vote question. Not unlike Trafalgar's "how will your neighbour vote" adjustment. Biden's lead is smaller in both of those than in the traditional vote screen so I guess that's why it contracts on the probabilistic screen.

Maybe also a different Likely Voter adjustment? Based off demographics rather than self-reported likelihood.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #242 on: October 16, 2020, 06:26:44 AM »

Probabilistic is instead of respondents giving a simple Trump/Biden/Someone else/Undecided/Wouldn't vote answer, they give a fractional probability of how likely they are to vote for each candidate, someone else, or not at all.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #243 on: October 16, 2020, 07:16:05 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.4 (-0.3)
Trump 41.9 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 54.1 (-0.5)
Trump 40.8 (+0.3)

Results from the COVID test era are going to start falling off now.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #244 on: October 17, 2020, 04:49:09 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.5 (+0.2)
Trump 41.7 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.2 (+0.1)
Trump 40.7 (-0.1)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #245 on: October 18, 2020, 04:50:02 AM »

Probabilistic:
Biden 53.6 (+0.03)
Trump 41.7 (+0.01)

Traditional:
Biden 54.0 (-0.2)
Trump 41.0 (+0.3)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #246 on: October 18, 2020, 07:46:01 AM »

Probabilistic:
Biden 53.6 (+0.03)
Trump 41.7 (+0.01)

Traditional:
Biden 54.0 (-0.2)
Trump 41.0 (+0.3)

We have reached the "two decimal places" stage of the campaign. Smiley
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #247 on: October 19, 2020, 04:48:44 AM »

Probabilistic:
Biden 53.6 (n/c)
Trump 41.8 (+0.1)

Traditional:
Biden 54.3 (+0.3)
Trump 41.1 (+0.1)
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #248 on: October 20, 2020, 04:52:07 AM »

Probabilistic:
Biden 53.5 (-0.1)
Trump 41.9 (+0.1)

Traditional:
Biden 54.2 (-0.1)
Trump 41.2 (+0.1)
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #249 on: October 21, 2020, 04:51:57 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.3 (-0.2)
Trump 42.1 (+0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.1 (-0.1)
Trump 41.3 (+0.1)
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