Black vote as the future of the GOP

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Obviously not winning them, but eating into the margins would help the GOP advance in the Midwest at the same time as holding emerging Southern swing states like NC, GA, TX.

You've already seen the beginning of this strategy with Trump passing the First Step Act on criminal justice reform, his campaign pushing hard the "you ain't black" comment from Biden and the hilarious courting of Kanye West among other things. In the future this will be seen like Romney's tough on China, tough on immigration message was a preview of Trump's "populist" campaign pitch a cycle later.

The political logic of such a move is obvious, because now that white conservatives have largely left the Democratic party its black voters are the moderate bloc who stonewalled the progressive faction in 2016 and 2020. Importantly, white liberals are now more progressive on race than the median minority voter! Older and rural black Democrats are also culturally out of step with the party in general, as the Democratic party has become younger, more urban, more secular, more diverse with Hispanic and Asian voters growing in importance relative to African Americans, aren't they the obvious faction to try and peel off from the majoritarian coalition?

Republican primary voters even have an appetite for this sort of move, with the slightly bizarre candidacies of Herman Cain and Ben Carson in 2012 and 2016 showing GOP voters would be excited by a competent black candidate.