1972: Black Belt

[Alcibiades]

Looking at the 1972 results map, Nixon won most most Black Belt counties, often by staggering margins; in many he received over 60%, even over 70% in quite a few. I see 4 possible explanations for these surprising results:

- Low rates of black voter registration due to only relatively recent enfranchisement.
- Low turnout rates/lack of enthusiasm for McGovern among black voters.
- Lingering voter suppression.
- Significant numbers of black voters voting for Nixon.

Which of these was it?

Interestingly, McGovern seems to have done a lot better in the majority black counties of Louisiana than other such counties in the Deep South. Alabama is perplexing, as McGovern outright won several Black Belt counties, but Nixon got 70%+ in others. Perhaps the result of localised registration drives or suppression efforts?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

VRA wasn't like flipping a switch on over night.

There were many instances where voter registration lagged significantly, it is possible that two played a role in one in that sense because enthusiasm can drive registration. As for three, certainly in certain areas though that would require research to find specific examples of direct intimidation, perhaps a more generalized cultural intimidation or discouragement, which again with motivation being absent might have been more difficult to overcome.

While there might have been isolated cases of black support among older black voters for Nixon, this I think was only a small piece of what was going on here.

[Arbitrage1980]

What % of southern whites voted for McGovern? Looks like in the Deep South, it was 1-2%. Any data on this?

[Intell]

What % of southern whites voted for McGovern? Looks like in the Deep South, it was 1-2%. Any data on this?

Before Obama-Trump voters, there were also Wallace-McGovern whom seemed to be most prevalent in AR/TN/Northen Alabama.

[Alcibiades]

What % of southern whites voted for McGovern? Looks like in the Deep South, it was 1-2%. Any data on this?

Before Obama-Trump voters, there were also Wallace-McGovern whom seemed to be most prevalent in AR/TN/Northen Alabama.

These seem to be TVA/New Deal Democrats. Humphrey pretty much did the most poorly with this group of any Democrat until Obama.

[mianfei]

Points I would make:

• McGovern actually did worse by percentage than Humphrey in large areas of the Black Belt, except in Alabama where voter registration was delayed more than any other Southern state. In parts of Black Belt Georgia and North Carolina, he did over ten percent worse
• In some parts of the Georgia Black Belt, voter turnout fell by as much as one-third, and in Georgia as a whole McGovern received 40,000 fewer votes than Humphrey – suggesting there was no subsequent Black Belt enfranchisement there after 1968
• In the South as a whole, Nixon probably won about 20 percent of black voters, whereas he had won only 3 percent or so in 1968, which partially at least explains my previous point
• McGovern gained some of the Wallace vote in the TVA counties, though many Wallace voters simply sat out the 1972 election because they could not accept any of Nixon, McGovern or John G. Schmitz
• McGovern probably gained between 15 and 20 percent of the Southern white vote, though he gained less than 5 percent in Mississippi and less than 10 percent in other Deep South states
• In some southern states, notably North Carolina and Tennessee, it is probable McGovern gained a larger proportion of the white vote than Humphrey did.
• Voting in 1972 (and 1976) was less (though still greatly) polarized by race than 1964, 1968 or post-1978 elections
• For your information, McGovern’s biggest decline in white vote vis-à-vis Humphrey was not in the South, but in the Northeast and Southwest. In the Southwest his declines vis-à-vis Humphrey are often larger than figures suggest as Hispanic and Native American enfranchisement – which in many areas postdated black enfranchisement in the Black Belt – favoured McGovern

Consider the following table of total voter turnout in 1968 and 1972 for the only six counties voting for Wallace and then for McGovern:

County	1968 votes	1972 votes
Bullock County, Alabama	4,347	4,591
Lowndes County, Alabama	3,263	4,661
Wilcox County, Alabama	4,435	5,945
Houston County, Tennessee	1,809	1,725
Perry County, Tennessee	2,029	1,871
Stewart County, Tennessee	2,541	1,935

As you can see, the Wallace vote in the three overwhelmingly white Middle Tennessee counties substantially sat out the 1972 election. In the three Alabama Black Belt counties, many new blacks were enrolled after 1968. Judging by Georgia, it is possible that voters there were dissatisfied by McGovern so turnout might have been higher with a different Democrat.

[MATTROSE94]

What % of southern whites voted for McGovern? Looks like in the Deep South, it was 1-2%. Any data on this?

Before Obama-Trump voters, there were also Wallace-McGovern whom seemed to be most prevalent in AR/TN/Northen Alabama.

A Wallace 1968/McGovern 1972 voter makes no sense politically. George Wallace was basically a right-wing populist along the lines of Donald Trump, whereas George McGovern was a New Deal Democrat who was slightly towards the far-left on social issues.

[Alcibiades]

What % of southern whites voted for McGovern? Looks like in the Deep South, it was 1-2%. Any data on this?

Before Obama-Trump voters, there were also Wallace-McGovern whom seemed to be most prevalent in AR/TN/Northen Alabama.

A Wallace 1968/McGovern 1972 voter makes no sense politically. George Wallace was basically a right-wing populist along the lines of Donald Trump, whereas George McGovern was a New Deal Democrat who was slightly towards the far-left on social issues.

Well, many of these voters were New Deal Democrats on economic issues. As both of the candidates in 1972 were pro-civil rights, they voted for the candidate closer to them economically.