GA (Landmark): Trump +3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 04:09:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  GA (Landmark): Trump +3		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: GA (Landmark): Trump +3  (Read 2032 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 17, 2020, 03:16:16 PM »
Trump 47.4%
Biden 44.5%
Jorgensen 4.4%
Undecided 3.7%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7038561/Landmark-Communications-Georgia-Poll.pdf
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,084


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2020, 03:18:09 PM »
Strong Lean R.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,974


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2020, 03:18:36 PM »

I don't see Jorgensen getting close to 4.4%.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2020, 03:20:46 PM »
Within realistic range, though the third party vote seems significantly too large. Also, any poll that includes decimal points always feels suspect to me.

Regardless, into the average it goes.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2020, 03:21:44 PM »
This poll is concerning, because Landmark was one of the better pollsters in 2016 and 2018.

They also had Clinton/Trump tied in early August 2016. Their final poll was Trump+3.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,634


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2020, 03:23:23 PM »
Landmark has a decent record in Georgia elections.  Their final polls were close to the actual result in both Kemp-Abrams and Trump-Clinton, and they had Ossoff-Handel tied going into the runoff.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2020, 03:24:26 PM »
Margin of error is 4.4% so there is plenty of room for either candidate to win this.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2020, 03:26:36 PM »
Trump's standings in several swing states are starting to mirror 2016.

TX, GA and NC are all trending away from Biden recently ...

This election is far from over and Trump is doing surprisingly well in those swing states.

Dems shouldn't party too early, like in 2016.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,720
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2020, 03:26:54 PM »
Jorgensen numbers look awfully high
Logged
It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 834
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2020, 03:28:27 PM »
Quote from: Horus on August 17, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
Jorgensen numbers look awfully high

Bat bite bump?
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2020, 03:29:53 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 17, 2020, 03:24:26 PM
Margin of error is 4.4% so there is plenty of room for either candidate to win this.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,634


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2020, 03:38:25 PM »
Quote from: Horus on August 17, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
Jorgensen numbers look awfully high

It's not uncommon for third parties to poll significantly better than they actually get in the end, especially this far in advance of the election.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,490
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2020, 03:40:01 PM »
Yeah, Trump is close against Biden, but he has to win Northern states
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,690
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2020, 03:43:00 PM »
Lmao, Georgia is safe D
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2020, 03:51:28 PM »
Uh, this has Biden winning 18-39 year olds by 5%.

Abrams won 18-44 year olds by 22% in 2018.

So... yeah.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2020, 03:52:47 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 17, 2020, 03:26:36 PM
Trump's standings in several swing states are starting to mirror 2016.

TX, GA and NC are all trending away from Biden recently ...

This election is far from over and Trump is doing surprisingly well in those swing states.

Dems shouldn't party too early, like in 2016.

The TX poll was a complete outlier while NC hasn't had any quality polling recently, and the polling that we've gotten was either 1 pt off from the previous poll, or Harper Polling (R) which actually trended *towards* Biden.

No one is partying?
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,722


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2020, 03:56:46 PM »
This isn’t a good poll for Biden in GA by any means but due to its inelasticity I wouldn’t think it’ll correlate well with trends in other states.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2020, 04:06:28 PM »
Quote from: Senator YE on August 17, 2020, 03:56:46 PM
This isn’t a good poll for Biden in GA by any means but due to its inelasticity I wouldn’t think it’ll correlate well with trends in other states.

Guess we should ignore the SurveyUSA poll that just came out last week that had Biden leading then!
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,722


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2020, 04:08:31 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 17, 2020, 04:06:28 PM
Quote from: Senator YE on August 17, 2020, 03:56:46 PM
This isn’t a good poll for Biden in GA by any means but due to its inelasticity I wouldn’t think it’ll correlate well with trends in other states.

Guess we should ignore the SurveyUSA poll that just came out last week that had Biden leading then!

?

I’m pretty bullish on GA but I can’t sugarcoat it and say that this is some inspiring poll for him.
Logged
solidcoalition
Rookie
**
Posts: 248
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2020, 04:21:22 PM »
Looks about right. I doubt Biden takes Georgia.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2020, 04:31:23 PM »
This ain’t it. Biden is leading.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,720
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2020, 04:33:26 PM »

A very accurate pollster.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2020, 04:34:15 PM »

Sorry but I've got to invoke Poe's Law. I can't tell if you're just parodying hacks or deeply ensconced in pessimism.
Logged
Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,413
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2020, 04:35:41 PM »

So you think Jorgenson is going to get 4% in Georgia? If so why is she outrunning her national performance by so much here?
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2020, 05:01:14 PM »
High quality pollster for the state of GA.  Better than what I expected TBH.  I figure Trump will do slightly better than Kemp so I guess this checks out.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.