New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent

Would Cardy being, well, Cardy not still have left an opening for the Greens and others?  Cargo-cult Blairism doesn't strike me as the most stable foundation to effectively build an NDP branch from scratch on.

Lurching from ultra-Blairism to ultra-Corbynism does seem a bit on brand for the modern NDP tbh.

[the506]

What exactly do the Greens stand for in NB? They seem like just a second Liberal party and they don’t even talk much about the environment

They're a typical Liberal party while the actual NB Liberals are a second Conservative party.

[DC Al Fine]

What exactly do the Greens stand for in NB? They seem like just a second Liberal party and they don’t even talk much about the environment

They're a typical Liberal party while the actual NB Liberals are a second Conservative party.

Kind of surprised to hear that from you. Aren't you libertarianish? Or is this more like "the Liberals and Tories are both in the Irvings' pocket" sentiment that I hear from my NB friends?

[adma]

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent

Would Cardy being, well, Cardy not still have left an opening for the Greens and others?  Cargo-cult Blairism doesn't strike me as the most stable foundation to effectively build an NDP branch from scratch on.

Lurching from ultra-Blairism to ultra-Corbynism does seem a bit on brand for the modern NDP tbh.

Or what if they *both* won their seats?  (Though Cardy being Cardy, he could have party-jumped in office)

[the506]

Poll maps are up:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/?e=2020

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll maps are up:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/?e=2020

Saint-Quentin continues its streak of voting the opposite of Kedgwick

[the506]

hey, the Liberals did win those 2 polls in St-Quentin cause the PC and Green vote split just evenly enough...

[mileslunn]

Anyone have party breakdown by municipality for following:

Fredericton
Moncton
Saint John

Also a map by county and municipality would be interesting if someone could do one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also a map by county and municipality would be interesting if someone could do one.

It will probably look like this (reverse the colours)

[libertpaulian]

Is this an omen for BC and Saskatchewan next month?

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a three-part map: the first shows the winning share of the vote in each constituency, the second shows the winning margin, and the third shows the swing.

[mileslunn]

Here's a three-part map: the first shows the winning share of the vote in each constituency, the second shows the winning margin, and the third shows the swing.

Do you have breakdown using municipal boundaries, specifically for Moncton, Miramichi, Fredericton, and Saint John.  Also county map would be neat.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's one for 2018 - winners' vote share, winners' margin & swing.

(Incidentally, have also updated the NB file here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing)