New Brunswick provincial election 2020
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Author Topic: New Brunswick provincial election 2020  (Read 10279 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #125 on: September 14, 2020, 06:55:31 PM »

CBC projects a Tory majority.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #126 on: September 14, 2020, 07:25:33 PM »

Only five seats now remain. Miramichi was called for the NBPA, Moncton Center for the Libs, and Fredricton York was called for the PC.

Seats remaining:

PC Lead: Carleton-Victoria over Libs, Moncton Northwest over Libs, Fredricton North over Green

Green: Memramcook-Tantramar over Libs

Lib: Miramichi Bay-Neguac over PC.


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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #127 on: September 14, 2020, 07:34:56 PM »

My prediction (this is more of a gut feeling than anything based on any modelling)
PC: 27
Lib: 18
Grn: 3
PA: 1

Damn, I should've advertised this more. Stick with what you're good at eh? Looks like I only got Miramichi wrong.  Sorry for botching the poll. Sad
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #128 on: September 14, 2020, 08:12:59 PM »

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #129 on: September 14, 2020, 08:13:28 PM »

Caitlin Grogan had the best NDP result with 6%. Who would've thought Quispamsis would be the best riding for the NDP Tongue I wasn't sure if her large online following would translate into votes. I guess it did a bit.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #130 on: September 14, 2020, 08:21:23 PM »

Fredricton North called for PCs.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #131 on: September 14, 2020, 09:00:26 PM »

All seats called. 27-17-3-2.
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adma
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« Reply #132 on: September 14, 2020, 09:19:10 PM »

Caitlin Grogan had the best NDP result with 6%. Who would've thought Quispamsis would be the best riding for the NDP Tongue I wasn't sure if her large online following would translate into votes. I guess it did a bit.

And for the leader to only get 1.3% is...eeesh.

And just generally, in the "Tory south", all those seats where the PCs got an Alberta-esque landslide over the three other parties bunched in teens and high single digits...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #133 on: September 14, 2020, 10:37:28 PM »



Hey! My four years of French a decade ago still work!

Vickers will be stepping down as the Liberals’ leader.
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morgieb
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« Reply #134 on: September 15, 2020, 03:24:37 AM »

What happened here? A PC held seat voted Liberal by 80+% of the vote!

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #135 on: September 15, 2020, 05:37:35 AM »

What happened here? A PC held seat voted Liberal by 80+% of the vote!



The sole Tory francophone MLA holding this seat (who had a huge personal vote), crossed the floor shortly before the election (he ran in another Liberal safe seat) over healthcare cuts in the area. That and the Tories collapsed with Francophones in general.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #136 on: September 15, 2020, 05:59:39 AM »

Some quick takeaways:

Tories: Justin Trudeau is watching you and taking notes.

Liberals: Vickers again proves that being good at X doesn't make you good at politics, and that you should never bet against local factors in the Maritimes. The Liberals lack of support with Anglos gives them a difficult path to victory next time. The Greens have taken a good chunk of the progressive left vote, the PA is also an outlet for rural anti-Toryism now  and the Tories have hoovered up much of the rest. Not sure which group they should focus on picking off next time.

Greens: Slightly disappointing given previous polling, but they are in a good position for next time. Another party wondering what group to focus on next time; rural Franco interests or, urban progressive ones.

People's Alliance: Avoiding getting Clegged was helpful and they have some openings should the Tories falter. Conroy seems prominent enough to avoid the party turning into a personalist vehicle.

NDP: Unequivocally a bad night, despite what some Redditors are saying. At least now they have four years to rebuild without worrying about a surprise election. My unsolicited advice: Talk about bread and butter issues more. Running on abortion and defunding the police, makes you seem like a meme, especially in a place like NB. When the right wing populists are talking about poverty more than you... it's not a good sign.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #137 on: September 15, 2020, 07:15:52 AM »


NDP: Unequivocally a bad night, despite what some Redditors are saying. At least now they have four years to rebuild without worrying about a surprise election. My unsolicited advice: Talk about bread and butter issues more. Running on abortion and defunding the police, makes you seem like a meme, especially in a place like NB. When the right wing populists are talking about poverty more than you... it's not a good sign.

Unfortunately for the NDP, their membership has been reduced to a bunch of activists, and NB is not the kind of place where activist politics are going to be very popular. Most of their pragmatic voters are going Green now.  The activist lane they've gone down is anathema to the base they've have in previous elections (i.e. working class Saint John and Acadia). This time, they didn't even run any candidates in the north!
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jaichind
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« Reply #138 on: September 15, 2020, 07:30:54 AM »

The PC+PA vote share at 48.5% is pretty high considering pre-election polling
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DL
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« Reply #139 on: September 15, 2020, 07:56:21 AM »

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #140 on: September 15, 2020, 08:00:03 AM »

Running on the programme and rhetoric of the average DSA chapter in an election in New Brunswick was certainly a... brave... choice.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #141 on: September 15, 2020, 08:00:25 AM »

Looks like the Green vote share is well below what the polling indicated

You can almost set your watch by that for most elections.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #142 on: September 15, 2020, 08:01:19 AM »

My poll is giving me mental anxiety, so I have to keep analyzing it. Sorry, everyone.

But, I looked at the total error, and while it's bad on the PCs, we were actually closer to the other parties than Forum or Mainstreet:

Ekos: PC (-7); Lib (-3); Grn (+3); PA (+1); NDP (+2) - total error of 16
Forum PC (-2); Lib (-5); Grn (+6); PA (-1);  NDP (+2) - total error of 16
Mainstreet PC (-2); Lib (-5); Grn (+6); PA (-2);  NDP (+2) - total error of 17

What went wrong? It was in the age weighting. I ran our numbers with no age weight and got
PC 38, Lib 32, Green 15, PA 9, NDP 3. A total error of just 5! New Brunswick is rapidly aging, and this needs to be accounted for polling to be accurate.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #143 on: September 15, 2020, 08:03:26 AM »

Running on the programme and rhetoric of the average DSA chapter in an election in New Brunswick was certainly a... brave... choice.

NDP have about 350 members in the whole province, apparently. Isn't that a bit.......low??
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #144 on: September 15, 2020, 08:10:35 AM »

Looks like the Green vote share is well below what the polling indicated

You can almost set your watch by that for most elections.

All comes down to age weighting. Mainstreet weighted by Census proportions (<35 = 24%), so over polled the Greens more than we did (our <35 weight was 20%). In reality, with young people fleeing the province, their proportion of the electorate was probably much lower.
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DL
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« Reply #145 on: September 15, 2020, 09:31:11 AM »

On top of that turnout among the young is always very low so they make up an even smaller share of the actual electorate
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #146 on: September 15, 2020, 09:09:42 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2020, 09:14:01 PM by Heat »

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent
Would Cardy being, well, Cardy not still have left an opening for the Greens and others?  Cargo-cult Blairism doesn't strike me as the most stable foundation to effectively build an NDP branch from scratch on.

Running on the programme and rhetoric of the average DSA chapter in an election in New Brunswick was certainly a... brave... choice.
There might be some lessons to learn for such people, if they knew anything about New Brunswick.
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DL
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« Reply #147 on: September 15, 2020, 10:27:44 PM »

What exactly do the Greens stand for in NB? They seem like just a second Liberal party and they don’t even talk much about the environment
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Sol
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« Reply #148 on: September 15, 2020, 10:33:08 PM »

Why exactly is New Brunswick so linguistically polarized?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #149 on: September 16, 2020, 12:12:35 AM »

Why exactly is New Brunswick so linguistically polarized?

More due to fact Blaine Higgs doesn't speak French and was a candidate for Confederation of Regions party (anti-bilingual party) back in 90s so not trusted by Francophones to respect their rights.  In Anglophone areas, he won big more because he handled pandemic well and he promised steady leadership, no rocking the boat which is I think what people want.  Some like Bernard Lord have broken linguistic divide and indeed if PCs had a bilingual leader who performed as well as Higgs they might have won a landslide similar to Lord in 1999.  So while true Francophone areas tend to be more Liberal than PC, a different leader could have done better.

For Anglophone areas, Liberals have pretty much lost connection so need to figure out what they stand for and have an appealing platform.  Obviously by nature the rural southern areas are always going to go PC, but the middle belt and urban Anglophone ones could go Liberal with right leader and right policies.
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