November 2018: New Caledonia independence referendum

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Today’s the day! https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/caledonia-vote-independence-france-73382671

We definitely need an update of the first post’s title though!

[W]

Village-level results do seem to swing more "Yes" than 2018, but not enough IMO to have an upset "Oui" win.

[Polkergeist]

There also seems to be a higher turnout in the heavily Oui Communes by about 2 to 6 percentage points

[parochial boy]

Lots of Nouméa still to come, so looks safe for the No vote. Seems like there was a much higher participation today, there was a boycott from some far left Kanak parties left time, but seemingly also a bit more enthusiasm this time round.

It does raise an interesting dilemma though; in theory there should be one last referendum between now and 2022. It will very probably also be rejected, but, you do get the feeling that 10 or 20 years down the line there might actually be a majority for independence.

Right now the Caldoches and other non-kanaks are overwhelmingly opposed to independence. But, there is a definite Calédonien identity that is separate from a French national identity that is present. A bit more time, and better ethnic relations (if that is even possible, ha), and you probably would have NC choosing to go it alone.

[Polkergeist]

The French Overseas Ministry have released an overall tally with 95% of votes counted

YES 46.26%
NO 53.74%

Participation rate 85.62%

[mgop]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

[Polkergeist]

The French Overseas Ministry have released an overall tally with 100% of votes counted:

YES 46.74%
NO  53.26%

Participation rate: 85.64%

[parochial boy]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

[Lord Halifax]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

[crals]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

[Lord Halifax]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

It was merely a prediction based on how post-colonial societies usually develop and the Kanaks natural desire to assert themselves and their culture, I think it would be more or less inevitable over time, but hopefully it would be a slow and gradual process with more Kanaks getting a higher education along the way to make up for the brain drain.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks closer than some predicted initially.

[crals]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

It was merely a prediction based on how post-colonial societies usually develop and the Kanaks natural desire to assert themselves and their culture, I think it would be more or less inevitable over time, but hopefully it would be a slow and gradual process with more Kanaks getting a higher education along the way to make up for the brain drain.

Sorry, I misinterpreted the post.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Well that was pretty anti-climatic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, wow, this was close. I genuinely had no idea pro-independence sentiment was so strong, and it's frankly a little worrying, both because I do think New Caledonia is currently better off within France (that wasn't always the case but French policy has improved considerably since the Nouméa accords) but more importantly because a bitterly divided society isn't good for either side.

Oh well. I think it's only fair to have a final referendum in a couple years to settle the matter once and for all. In the meantime, I hope tensions don't continue escalating.

[Lord Halifax]

Oh, wow, this was close. I genuinely had no idea pro-independence sentiment was so strong, and it's frankly a little worrying, both because I do think New Caledonia is currently better off within France (that wasn't always the case but French policy has improved considerably since the Nouméa accords) but more importantly because a bitterly divided society isn't good for either side.

Oh well. I think it's only fair to have a final referendum in a couple years to settle the matter once and for all. In the meantime, I hope tensions don't continue escalating.

It's a little optimistic to assume a third referendum will settle the matter "once and for all", if the "Yes" side increase their vote there'll be a push for a fourth referendum.

[CumbrianLefty]

And of course the aftermath of a (say) 51-49 vote *for* independence would also be great fun.

[Hash]

Despite the No vote falling by over 3% since 2018, all communes voted the same way they did in 2018. All of the Yes communes are remarkably solid: the weakest result for the Yes in a commune it won was 66.6% in Koné. Most of the No communes are rather lopsided as well, with only two of them voting No with less than 60% - Moindou (46.1% Yes) and Pouembout (48.2% Yes).

Nouméa voted 76.7% No, down from 80.5% two years ago. 41% of the No's entire vote came from the city, which cast around 28.5% of all votes. The other three communes in the Grand Nouméa also voted heavily No: 73.7% in Dumbéa, 71.8% in Le Mont-Dore and 71.2% in Païta. Obviously the vast majority of the No's votes came from these four communes.

The strongest municipality for the No was Poya Sud (the small part of the commune of Poya located in Province Sud), with 97.7% for the No albeit on a total vote of just 173. If you count Poya as a whole commune instead of in two parts it voted 62% Yes. The strongest actual commune for No was tiny Farino, at 88.5% No. Founded by Corsican settlers, it has the smallest Kanak population of any commune in New Caledonia.

The strongest municipality for the Yes was Bélep, a small archipelago facing the northern tip of the Grande Terre (main island) with a quasi-homogenously Kanak population (96.4% as of the last census in 2014). The second strongest was Hienghène, the former stronghold of the late independentist leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou, at 96.3% Yes. It is also over 90% Kanak.

Interestingly, while the Loyalty Islands had the strongest Yes vote of the three provinces, their Yes vote appears quite 'low' for a place where Kanaks are 94% of the population. Maré was the only commune where the Yes did worse than in 2018, falling from 84.6% to 79.3%. Lifou and Ouvéa both voted around 86% Yes. Not sure what's up with that.

As in 2018 the main predictor of Yes support is ethnicity. Since New Caledonia is the only part of France where they're allowed to collect these kinds of statistics, we can actually map out ethnicity against vote choice. So here it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, wow, this was close. I genuinely had no idea pro-independence sentiment was so strong, and it's frankly a little worrying, both because I do think New Caledonia is currently better off within France (that wasn't always the case but French policy has improved considerably since the Nouméa accords) but more importantly because a bitterly divided society isn't good for either side.

Oh well. I think it's only fair to have a final referendum in a couple years to settle the matter once and for all. In the meantime, I hope tensions don't continue escalating.

It's a little optimistic to assume a third referendum will settle the matter "once and for all", if the "Yes" side increase their vote there'll be a push for a fourth referendum.

Well, three referenda is what the Nouméa accords established. I guess it's possible to have more if there's a major event to change things, but otherwise this is the process that both sides agreed upon, and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect them to abide by it.

Also, if a fourth referendum is held after the agreed-upon three, then people who immigrated over the past 30 years should be allowed to vote. It would be grossly unfair otherwise.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

As in 2018 the main predictor of Yes support is ethnicity. Since New Caledonia is the only part of France where they're allowed to collect these kinds of statistics, we can actually map out ethnicity against vote choice. So here it is.

TIL that they can collect that in New Caledonia. My HS French teacher sent us on a snipe hunt for ethnicity data for Metropolitan France haha.

[Hash]

As may have been mentioned, the franchise for these referendums (as well as provincial elections in NC) is restricted. Basically, those born outside New Caledonia and who immigrated to New Caledonia over the past decades don't have the right to vote.

Those registered to vote in the referendum needed to meet at least one of the following criteria:

• Registered to vote or fulfilling conditions to be registered to vote in the 1998 referendum on the Nouméa Accord, i.e. 10 years residence between 1988 and 1998
• Not meeting residency requirements in the 1998 referendum, if you can justify that your absence was for family, professional or medical reasons
• Have had civil customary status or, born in New Caledonia, have the 'centre of their moral and material interests' there
• Have one parent born in NC and having the 'centre of their moral and material interests' there
• Able to justify 20 years continuous residence in NC by 31 Dec. 2014
• Born before 1989, and having resided in NC between 1988 and 1998
• Born after 1989, and having one parent able to vote in the 1998 referendum

New Caledonia therefore has three electoral lists: the general list (used for 'French' elections), the provincial list (for elections to provincial assemblies and Congress) and the special list for the referendum.

Thankfully, because of the municipal elections this year, held under the general list in New Caledonia, we can get a rather accurate picture of how many people are excluded from voting in the indyrefs. Granted, EU citizens can also vote in municipal elections but I doubt there are that many of them registered, particularly here. According to my estimates, there are 32,425 voters on the general roll who cannot vote in the referendums. That's 15.2% of registered voters who are not on the referendum list.

So here is a map which shows the percentage of those on the general list (as of March 2020) excluded from the special referendum list.



Of these 32,425 'excluded' voters, the vast majority - 94.7% - are in the Province Sud. 59.5% of 'excluded' voters are in Nouméa alone. For comparison, 64.8% of registered voters for the referendum were in that province, and 69.4% of general list voters in March 2020 were in that province. Only 1,731 voters in the other two provinces, which have overwhelmingly nationalist majorities and a largely Kanak population, were 'excluded' from the referendum list.

Nouméa is the commune with the most excluded voters - 27.1% of those who could vote in March 2020 couldn't last Sunday. The other communes in the Grand Nouméa also have high percentages of excluded voters: 17.3% in Dumbéa, 16.9% in Mont-Dore and 18.9% in Païta. Pouembout, in Province Nord, has the most excluded voters outside of the Nouméa metro at 13.4%. On the other hand, in most overwhelmingly Kanak communes, the percentage of excluded voters is insignificant - below 1% in many cases. Kaala-Gomen (75.9% Yes) even had the same number of registered voters in March and October 2020.