French Senate Election - Sept. 27, 2020

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I regret to inform you that we missed the most riveting election of 2020: the French (half-)Senate (indirect) election last Sunday. 172 out of 348 seats were renewed from 'serie 2' - which is all departments numbered 01 to 36, 67 to 90 except for those in Île-de-France and five of the overseas places (Guiana, Saint-Barth, Saint-Martin, Wallis-et-Futuna and French Polynesia). The election for half of the 12 expat seats was delayed to 2021 because of COVID. Senators serve six year terms, so the 'serie 2' was last renewed in 2014.

The French Senate is elected in each department by an electoral college made up (for the metro and most overseas seats) of parliamentarians, regional and departmental councillors and delegates from municipal councils (who make up around 95% of the electoral colleges). The number of delegates from each commune varies based on population, and all communes with a population over 300,000 send additional delegates over and above the full municipal council.

In practice, the smaller communes are significantly over-represented at the expense of larger ones, so the electoral college is in very large part made up of delegates from the smaller communes.

The number of seats by department varies loosely based on population. Departments with 1 or 2 senators elect them using majority voting - individuals run separately, electors have as many votes as there are seats and candidates require an absolute majority in the first round to win or a plurality in successive rounds (no candidate is legally forced to withdraw from successive rounds). Departments with 3 or more senators elect them by proportional representation (highest averages) - parties run closed lists of candidates, electors vote for lists and so forth.

I won't bore you with the details of legislative procedure, but the Senate can't kill legislation, although it can significantly delay and/or amend legislation and - above all - be a hassle for the government. In the constitutional theory, the Senate represents 'territorial collectivities' (local governments) and, informally, rural regions. In practice, it is commonly perceived as a retirement home for failed politicians, decrepit hacks and old white men. The average age was 63, which is about 12 years higher than for the National Assembly.

The right or the centre controlled the Senate from the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 until the socialist left gained control, for the first time ever, in 2011. The right comfortably regained control of the Senate in 2014, and expanded its majority in 2017. In comparison to the lower house, the Senate was historically somewhat less politicized or polarized and senators have tended to be more moderate, pragmatic and consensual than the deputies. In comparison to the lower house, 'cadre parties' (partis de notables) were historically over-represented in the Senate - this meant that, until the 1980s if not later, the Christian democrats, liberals/non-Gaullist right and radicals were 'over-represented' in the Senate while the Gaullist right and communists in particular were 'under-represented'. Today, macronismo (LREM), in part because of its weakness at a local level, only has a small Senate group of 23 members (pre-election).

The makeup of the Senate by group prior to the election was:

LR 144
SOC 71
UC 51 (centrist group - UDI and MoDem)
RDSE 24 (the oldest parliamentary group in France, created in 1892, the old Radical group; fairly unique in having a mix of both moderate left and right-wingers)
LREM 23
CRCE 16 (Communists and allies)
LIRT 13 ('constructive' soft-macronista liberal right created in 2017)
RASNAG 6 (non-inscrits)

The current president of the Senate is Gérard Larcher, a fat amiable old man. He was president of the Senate from 2008 to 2011 and again since 2014.


The election was pretty unremarkable. The right expanded its majority by a bit, the greens (EELV) and their allies gained enough seats to recreate a separate green group (which previously existed between 2012 and 2017), the left on the whole gained a few seats and LREM didn't do as badly as expected.

The composition of the groups won't be known for another week, but here is an estimate from political journalist Laurent de Boissieu who is always a good source for this stuff:

LR 150
SOC 65
UC 53
LREM 23
RDSE 16
CRC 15
Ecolo 12
LIRT 11
RASNAG 3

The electoral colleges which elected senators this year were renewed earlier this year in the municipal elections.

Given macronismo's famously bad performance in the municipal elections, most were predicting some losses for LREM but the presidential party ended up doing better than expected. François Patriat (Côte-d'Or), president of the group, was re-elected in his department, a bit of a surprise. Two cabinet ministers were also elected (but will not sit, for now): overseas minister Sébastien Lecornu in the Eure and secretary of state for tourism Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne in the Yonne.

The right-left balance changed little. The left gained seats in some larger departments - Bouches-du-Rhône (helped by the gain of Marseille), where they had done particularly awfully in 2014; Gironde (helped by the gain of Bordeaux) and Rhône-Lyon Metro. They lost some seats elsewhere, like in Alpes-Maritimes, Aisne, Charente, Doubs, Finistère, Seine-Maritime, Vaucluse and the Var. They lost out on gaining a few extra seats (~8 or so) because of divisions or bad strategies (Doubs, Savoie, Deux-Sèvres etc.).

A somewhat natural result of EELV's success earlier this year in the municipal elections, they elected enough new senators - in the Bouches-du-Rhône, Gironde, Ille-et-Vilaine, Bas-Rhin and Rhône-Lyon - to recreate a group. The group will also include five incumbent senators, who were previously divided between the RDSE, Communist and Socialist groups.

A minor but noteable highlight was the election of the first Corsican nationalist senator, in Haute-Corse. He should also join the new green group.

Stéphane Ravier, the single RN senator (another senator in the Var left the party), was surprisingly re-elected in the Bouches-du-Rhône. Given that Ravier had lost his sector in Marseille in the local election, the RN had much fewer 'grand électeurs' than six years ago.

Also in the Bouches-du-Rhône, the corrupt former Socialist baron Jean-Noël Guérini was re-elected but this time he was the only one from his list to win. In 2014, his list had won 3 seats.

For my own pleasure and to kill time, I'll probably go through the results in more detail and give some highlights from each department.

[jaichind]

How did LR gain seats ?  I thought LR lost ground in the latest round of municipal elections

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Part I of a full summary:

Ain: Both right-wing incumbents, Sylvie Goy-Chavent (LR but non-inscrit) and Patrick Chaize (LR), were reelected on separate lists. The PS held its seat as well, despite competition from a PRG list which got 14.8%.
Result: 1 LR, 1 RASNAG, 1 SOC

Aisne: A nasty surprise for the left, which lost retiring PS senator Yves Daudigny's seat. Both LR incumbents were reelected, with the main right-wing list getting 42.4%. The third seat went to Pierre-Jean Verzelen, LR mayor of Crécy-sur-Serre, whose dissident list got 29.2%. Verzelen will join the LIRT group. The left (PS-PCF) lost over 200 votes from 2014 and got just 18.4%. It's a bit unclear why the left lost its seat, in the absence of any major shifts in the electoral college from 6 years ago, but is likely related to local matters. Result: 2 LR, 1 LIRT (Right +1)

Allier: Easy first round victory for the two right-wing candidates, incumbent senator Claude Malhuret (Agir/LIRT) and LR candidate Bruno Rojouan. The right's candidates each won about 63-64% of the votes, against 32% for the PS/PCF.
Result: 1 LR, 1 LIRT

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: Jean-Yves Roux (DVG/RDSE backed by LREM) was easily reelected on the first ballot with 65% against PS-EELV-PCF and LR candidates.
Result: 1 RDSE

Hautes-Alpes: Jean-Michel Arnaud (LR but labelled 'misc. centre' by the Interior gnomes) defeated incumbent LR senator Patricia Morhet-Richaud, who became senator in 2014 following the death of Jean-Yves Dusserre. He won by 9 votes on the second ballot, seemingly thanks by winning some people who had voted for EELV's candidate on the first ballot.
Result: 1 LR

Alpes-Maritimes: The right is hegemonic here. Unlike in 2014, it was (largely) united behind the LR list led by senator Dominique Estrosi Sassone, ex-wife of Christian Estrosi, mayor of Nice. In 2014, the left had miraculously saved a seat (by 3 votes) thanks to the division on the right, but its incumbent (Marc Daunis, now closer to macronismo) didn't seek reelection and the PCF-EELV-PS list was very weak. With the right united, unlike in 2014, the LR list got 69.5% of the vote and won all five seats. A dissident right-wing list got 10.6%, narrowly ahead of the left (10.5%).
Result: 5 LR (Right +1)

Ardèche: The right easily held both seats, gained in 2014, in the first round. Mathieu Darnaud (LR) was reelected with nearly 63%, and Anne Ventalon (LR) was elected with 51.8%.
Result: 2 LR

Ardennes: While the right held both seats, the election was more open than in 2014 when both right-wing incumbents were re-elected on the first ballot. Incumbent senator Benoît Huré (LR diss.) ran again, after having previously announced his retirement, and was opposed by two official LR candidates - incumbent senator Marc Laménie and vice president of the departmental council Else Joseph. The left's candidate was Jean-Paul Bachy, former regional president of Champagne-Ardenne (2004-2015) and former mayor of Sedan (1995-2004). Laménie easily won on the second ballot with over 55%, while Joseph narrowly edged out Bachy for the second seat by 17 votes. Huré finished fourth in the second round with 24.9%. The right's division almost cost it a seat.
Result: 2 LR

Ariège: The left remains dominant here, and so the PS candidate was easily elected on the first ballot with 53%.
Result: 1 SOC

Aube: The right held both seats. Évelyne Perrot (UDI) was reelected on the first ballot, with 60%, but the second seat was closely fought on the second ballot between Vanina Paoli-Gagin (DVD) and LR deputy Gérard Menuel, with the former beating the latter by a 46 vote margin. Paoli-Gagin was parliamentary assistant to senator Philippe Adnot (DVD, 'delegate' of the non-inscrits RASNAG group and senator since 1989), who ran as her suppléant. Unlike Adnot, and despite having been 'secretary-general' of the RASNAG, it seems like she will sit with a group - namely, LIRT.
Result: 1 LIRT, 1 UC

Aude: The left remains dominant at the local level in this department, despite the right holding the two largest cities (who don't weight much in the electoral college). Therefore, the PS held both seats easily: their candidates were each elected on the first ballot with just under 60% of the votes.
Result: 2 SOC

Aveyron: The centre/right regained both seats from the left in 2014. They easily retained both this year in the first round; Alain Marc (MRSL/RDSE) was reelected with 61%, Jean-Claude Anglars (LR) was elected with 55%, replacing retiring senator Jean-Claude Luche (UDI).
Result: 1 LR, 1 LIRT

Bouches-du-Rhône: With 8 seats, the Bouches-du-Rhône and its crazy politics, was one of the big prizes of this series. 2014, which followed the disastrous local elections of that spring, had been an absolute disaster for the left - which was left with just one seat (won by Samia Ghali). Senator Jean-Noël Guérini, the cartoonishly corrupt one-time baron of the local PS clientelistic machine (and president of the dept. council until 2015), who has since dedicated his life to fucking up the PS as revenge, ran his own list, which won 3 seats (30% of the vote). Guérini benefited from his networks and local officials' anger over the creation of the Marseille-Aix-Province Métropole. Guérini, much more discreet, is inexplicably still a free man but his influence is much weaker now - although not completely dead (indeed, the vote of one of his few remaining loyalists, Lisette Narducci, was critical to the election of the left's Michèle Rubirola as mayor of Marseille this summer). Guérini ran again, with two other senators on his list (Mireille Jouve and Danièle Garcia, in second and fourth position respectively).

Since then, the 2020 local elections saw the left regain Marseille, providing it with a major boost in the electoral college, but its performance in the rest of the department was very mediocre (notably with the PCF losing Arles). For once, the left decided not to be stupid, and ran a common PCF-PS-EELV list - led by the PCF's Jérémy Bacchi, with former cabinet minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS) in second and Guy Benarroche (EELV) in third.

The right had been hoping for four seats in 2014, but it was also hurt by Guérini's surprisingly strong showing and ended up with only three. The right remains quite strong in the department despite the loss of Marseille and internal divisions. The list was led by senator Patrick Boré, with the nasty LR deputy Valérie Boyer in second position.

Stéphane Ravier (RN), who had won the seventh sector of Marseille in 2014, was elected to the Senate a few months later with 12.4% - finishing ahead of the PS list. Since then, Ravier lost the seventh sector and the local elections weren't particularly great for the RN. His re-election seemed rather complicated.

The right (36.1%) and left (28.7%) won three seats each. Guérini was re-elected, but alone this time with only half of the votes that he had 6 years ago (15.6%). Surprisingly, Ravier saved his seat with a surprisingly strong result given RN's recent losses: he won 10%, and lost less than 100 votes compared to 2014, which suggests that he successfully lobbied many 'grand électeurs' in smaller towns, likely at the right's expense (again missing out on a fourth seat). The LREM list didn't do all that poorly either given everything: it was a 'strong' fifth with 8.8%.
Result: 3 LR, 1 SOC, 1 CRC, 1 Ecolo, 1 RDSE, 1 RASNAG (Left +2)

Calvados: Unsurprisingly, the right held two seats and the left held the third one. Both right-wing incumbents were re-elected on a single list which won 45.5%, while the PS incumbent was re-elected with the PS-EELV-PCF list getting 26.2%. A presidential majority list won 15.5%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LR, 1 SOC

Cantal: Senator Bernard Delcros (UDI), elected in a 2015 by-election, was easily reelected with 79% on the first ballot. With the retirement of Josiane Costes (MRSL/RDSE), who replaced Jacques Mézard (ex-PRG/MRSL), the second seat was closely disputed between Stéphane Sautarel (LR) and Michel Teyssedou (centrist), the former winning on the second ballot by 16 votes.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LR

Charente: The left, which has suffered loses since 2014 - notably Cognac this year and the departmental council in 2015 - lost one seat to the right. While one PS incumbent was easily re-elected in the first round with over 60%, in the second round, François Bonneau, the DVD president of the departmental council, was elected over the PS' second candidate 54% to 42%.
Result: 1 LR, 1 SOC (Right +1)

Charente-Maritime: The right, whose list won 47%, held two seats. The left held the second seat, but it was won by the official PS list (28.5%) at the expense of PS (but close to macronismo) incumbent Bernard Lalande, whose list - backed by LREM - got 21.2%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 SOC

Cher: Both right-wing incumbents (2 LR) were easily reelected in the first round with over 65%.
Result: 2 LR

Corrèze: Both right-wing incumbents (1 LR, 1 LIRT), who had gained their seats from the PS in 2014, were easily reelected in the first round with about 62%.
Result: 1 LR, 1 LIRT

Corse-du-Sud: LR incumbent Jean-Jacques Panunzi was essentially unopposed, with the noted absence of a nationalist candidate, and was reelected with 97.7%.
Result: 1 LR

Haute-Corse: The seat was open with the retirement of corrupt incumbent Joseph Castelli (MR/RDSE). Paul-Toussaint Parigi, nationalist territorial councillor (from Gilles Simeoni's Femu a Corsica) and mayor of Santa-Lucia-di-Mercurio, was elected on the second ballot against a LR candidate. He was only one vote short of a first round victory. Parigi is the first Corsican nationalist senator, further consolidating nationalist dominance on the island after its 2017 victories and solid performance in the local elections this year.
Result: 1 Ecolo/Nationalist

Côte-d'Or: All incumbents were reelected - 1 LR, 1 UC and 1 LREM. François Patriat (LREM, ex-PS), president of the macronista group in the Senate, managed to save his seat for a third term - something that was from certain. He was elected with left-wing votes in 2014, but now François Rebsamen, PS mayor of Dijon, had vowed to defeat him with a PS list led by a close ally. The right-wing (LR-UDI) list with both incumbents did well - considering that Patriat was said to be chasing right-wing votes - and held both of its seats with 43.6%, slightly more than in 2014. Patriat, who campaigned very hard (apparently visiting over 600 communes), saved his seat - likely due to his local personal notoriety and political experience rather than his macronsta label. His list won 26.6%. The PS list won 20%, and a EELV list won 6.5% - a united left-wing list could have come much closer to defeating Patriat.
Result: 1 LR, 1 UC, 1 LREM

Côtes-d'Armor: All incumbents retired, but the outcome was the same as in 2014: 2 for the left (still split between 1 PS and 1 Communist) and one for the right. The left is still strong locally here, despite the loss of the departmental council in 2015, and gained Saint-Brieuc from the centre in the local elections this year. The PS-PCF list won 40.7% (2 seats). The third seat went to the LR president of the departmental council (and former MEP), Alain Cadec, who led a dissident list against the official LR list (led by a vice president of the departmental council), winning 27% to 15%.
Result: 1 LR, 1 SOC, 1 CRC

Creuse: Both senators, supported by the PS - Jean-Jacques Lozach and Éric Jeansannetas (ex-PS, close to MR/RDSE) - were reelected. While Lozach won on the first ballot, Jeansannetas only narrowly a LR departmental councillor on the second ballot by 12 votes.
Result: 2 SOC

Dordogne: A LREM senator, elected as a Socialist in 2014, didn't seek reelection. The left (PS-PCF) won both seats. The PS candidate won in the first round, but the PCF candidate needed to wait for a second ballot to win - defeating MoDem deputy Jean-Pierre Cubertafon by 27 votes (a UDI candidate who finished fourth in the first round withdrew to help the MoDem's candidate).
Result: 1 SOC, 1 PCF (Left +1)

Doubs: A suicidal split in the vote on the left cost it its seat and allowed the right/centre to run away with all three seats (they had won 2 in 2014). Two seats were won by a UDI-LREM list led by incumbent senator Jean-François Longeot (UDI), which got 35.8%, while the third seat went to LR incumbent Jacques Grosperrin, whose list got 28%. The left-wing vote was split in two between Barbara Romagnan (G.s/ex-PS), former frondeuse deputy (2012-17), and a PS list - Romagnan won 17.4%, the PS won 15.4%. A united left-wing list could easily have won a seat, if not two.
Result: 2 UC, 1 LR (Right +1)

Drôme: All incumbents - 1 PS, 1 LREM and 1 LR - were reelected from three separate lists. The LR list won 38.3%, and will likely be disappointed that it missed out gaining a second seat given the right's good results in the local elections this year. The PS list won 35.2% and the LREM list, led by incumbent senator Bernard Buis (ex-PS, replaced Didier Guillaume when he became agriculture minister), won 22.6%.
Result: 1 SOC, 1 LREM, 1 LR

Eure: While Sébastien Lecornu, the overseas minister and former LR president of the departmental council (2015-17), won a seat (which he won't hold as long as he's minister), his list was badly beaten by that of his centre-right rival, incumbent senator Hervé Maurey (Les Centristes, Hervé Morin's party). Maurey's list, supported by LR, won nearly 50% and two seats. Lecornu's LREM list, which had hoped to win two or even three seats, only got 30.8% - 1 seat. His list included LR incumbent Nicole Duranton (who will hold his seat while he's in government) and, in third place, the DVD-macronista president of the departmental council (LR incumbent Ladislas Poniatowski had the symbolic last spot on the list). The PS list got only 16%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LREM, 1 LR

Eure-et-Loir: The right, split between two lists, held all three seats. The official LR list, including two incumbent senators and led by senator Albéric de Montgolfier (a distant descendant of the Montgolfier brothers, inventors of the hot air balloon), won 43% and two seats. A dissident LR list by Daniel Guéret, departmental councillor and Chartres municipal councillor, and supported by the LR president of the departmental council and the mayor of Chartres, won 21.5% and one seat. The left, still largely dominated by the Huwart family -- François Huwart, former cabinet minister, former PRG deputy and mayor of Nogent-le-Rotrou from 1989 to 2020; suceeded as mayor by his son Harold this year -- again missed out on a seat. François Huwart's MRSL-PS list won 14.7%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 RASNAG or LR (?)

Finistère: A nasty surprise for the PS, which lost one of its seats and is now left with just one - when it had optimistically hoped to win three out of four seats. The heavyweight PS list, led by incumbent senator Jean-Luc Fichet with the president of the departmental council in second and former deputy (2007-17, defeated in 2017) and former justice minister (2016-17) Jean-Jacques Urvoas in third, finished a close second with 28%, only 7 votes from first place (and a second seat). The UDI-LREM list led incumbent centrist senator Michel Canévet finished first with 28.3%, a surprisingly strong performance which allowed the election of Canévet's macronista running-mate Nadège Havet (LREM). The LR list led by incumbent senator Philippe Paul, former mayor of Douarnenez, won 25%. Paul, complaining that Larcher had supported Canévet's list, has since quit LR. The PS' nasty surprise - 7 votes short of holding its second seat - came in part because of the left's division: a EELV-UDB list and a PCF-G.s-ND list both won 8.6%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LREM, 1 LR, 1 SOC (Right +1)

Gard: The right held its two seats, and the PS held its seat. The LR-UDI list led by senator Vivette Lopez won 36.2% and got two seats, while the PS-PCF list led by Denis Bouad, president of the departmental council, got 35.7% and one seat. As in 2014, the PS only narrowly missed out on a second seat (lost in 2014), this time by a mere 9 votes. The PS was hurt by a dissident list led by a departmental councillor, who had initially won the local PS' endorsement until Bouad was convinced to run. The dissident list won 6.4% or 118 votes. The RN list, led by Julien Sanchez (mayor of Beaucaire), did slightly better than in 2014 and won 10.9% - still very far from being in contention for a seat. Incumbent senator Stéphane Cardennes (ex-MoDem), who had been a senator for just a few months, lost reelection: his list finished fourth with 9.2%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 SOC

Haute-Garonne: Six years ago the right, buoyed by major gains in the 2014 local elections (notably Toulouse) and a divided left, won and took 3 seats. The field was very open this year, with five incumbents seeking reelection on four separate lists, but the outcome was still a 3-2 right/left split. The PS, led by senator Claude Raynal, won 29.3% and took 2 seats. The right-wing list led by senator Alain Chatillon (MRSL-LR), won 24.5% and also won 2 seats. Senator Pierre Médevielle (Agir), leading a macronista-UDI list, won 14% and held his seat, likely thanks to his base in the south of the department (he was the only top candidate to hail from the south of the department). A EELV list, which had its eyes set on taking a seat, fell short of its goal and took 10.6% of the vote - perhaps hurt by a LFI list (unusual, as LFI usually doesn't bother with senatorial elections since cult leader Mélenchon wants to abolish the Senate) led by regional councillor Myriam Martin got 4.4%. Françoise Laborde (MRSL), elected second on the PS-PRG list in 2014 and seeking reelection atop a soft-macronista centre-right list, managed a respectable 9.6% but lost her seat.
Result: 2 LR, 2 SOC, 1 UC

Gers: While Franck Montaugé (PS) was handily reelected on the first ballot with 56.5%, the second seat was a closely-fought rematch of the 2015 by-election between Raymond Vall (PRG, defeated in 2014 but reelected in 2015 following the invalidation of the election of the UDI's Aymeric de Montesquiou) and small-town mayor Alain Duffourg (DVD). This time, Duffourg beat Vall 46.4% to 43%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 SOC (Right +1)

Gironde: With their big victory in Bordeaux this year, EELV was looking to gain a seat - and it did, with 14.5% (third place) for an independent EELV list led by Green veteran Monique de Marco (former regional councillor, municipal councillor in Talence since 2001). The PS list topped the poll with 30.4%, reelecting both PS senators. The PS had declined a common list with EELV, mindful that the greenies might scare off electors in rural areas. A MRSL-MoDem list with senators Nathalie Delattre (MRSL) and Alain Cazabonne (MoDem), who were both on the victorious right-wing list in 2014, finished second with 24.5% and both senators were reelected. EELV actually finished ahead of a much-weakened LR, whose list got just 10.5% and one seat (held by the incumbent). The LREM list led by ex-PS senator Françoise Cartron won just 8.3% and no seats.
Result: 2 SOC, 1 Ecolo, 1 UC, 1 RDSE, 1 LR

Hérault: As seems to be the norm in this part of the world, it was a mess, and as in 2014, all four seats were won by four separate lists. The official PS list led by Hussein Bourgi, likely benefiting from the PS' victory in Montpellier in June, topped the poll with 22.7%. In second place, incumbent senator Jean-Pierre Grand (ex-LR), who led the official LR list (in 2014 he was elected on a dissident list), was reelected with 17%. Christian Bilhac, a former mayor and PS dissident, who already ran unsuccessfully in 2014, was victorious this time around, getting 14.4%. Incumbent senator Henri Cabanel (ex-PS/RDSE, elected on the PS list in 2014) won the last seat, with 12.7%. Agnès Constant (LREM), who replaced Robert Navarro (DVG) after his resignation following his conviction for corruption, finished a paltry seventh with just 5.5% (behind a UDI/DVD list and EELV).
Result: 2 RDSE, 1 LR, 1 SOC

Ille-et-Vilaine: The left-right balance remained unchanged at 2-2, but the surprise was the election of a EELV senator, Daniel Salmon, who took a seat from the PS. The UDI-LR list, with two incumbents, finished far ahead with 42.3%, essentially what it had won in 2014. The PS, led by senator Sylvie Robert, fell to 26.3% and just a single seat. EELV, running on its own, was surprising strong - it won 19.9%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LR, 1 SOC, 1 Ecolo

Indre: The right held both seats. Nadine Bellurot (LR), vice-president of the departmental council, won her seat in the first round with 55.4%. The other seat was decided in a runoff, and incumbent Frédérique Gerbaud (LR) won rather comfortably, with 46.2% against 30.3% for former deputy Jan-Yves Hugon (Agir) and 20.5% for the PS candidate. Notably, both seats will be held by women.
Result: 2 LR

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Bas-Rhin: The right, naturally, remains dominant with four of the five seats but the left - now led by EELV, victorious in Strasbourg - retained its seat, now held by Jacques Fernique (EELV). The right held its seats split between two lists. The UDI-LR list by senator Claude Kern (UDI), with senator Guy-Dominique Kennel (LR) in third place, won 31.2% and 2 seats. Another list, led by LR senator André Reichardt, won 26.6% and 2 seats. The left's EELV-PS-PCF list won 19.8%. It doesn't seem to have been hurt by a rival 'centrist' green list led by Andrée Buchmann, a veteran of green politics in Alsace who was backed by the mayor of Schiltigheim. She won only 3.3%. A macronista list led by Agir deputy Antoine Herth won 11.1%.
Result: 3 LR, 1 UC, 1 Ecolo

Haut-Rhin: Three out of four senators retired, including the famous turncoat Jean-Marie Bockel (now UDI, having been one of the Blairite Socialists poached by Sarkozy in 2007). The LR list won 32.5% and two seats. Macronismo had a genuinely good result: incumbent senator Patricia Schilinger, elected as a Socialist in 2014, not only managed reelection but with 29.6% she brought a second seat as well. A centrist list won 11.4%, while the left - split between EELV and the PS - got 8.8% and 10% respectively.
Result: 2 LR, 2 LREM

Rhône and Lyon: Held in the wake of the chaotic and historic local and metropolitan elections in Lyon, the elections saw the right and centre divided and the left - now with EELV in a leading position because of their victory in Lyon - hopeful for gains. The left (EELV-PS-PCF-PRG-G.s) ran united (a minor LFI list notwithstanding), with EELV holding the first two spots, and won 32.5% and 3 seats - a gain of one seat from 2014 (when the left was led by one Gérard Collomb...).

While the left was united, it was a complete mess on the right and centre. LR, still reeling from the infamous second round alliance with Collomb in the local elections in the summer, was divided between two lists. One led by senator François-Noël Buffet, the LR candidate in the metropolitan elections for whom Collomb withdrew; the other by regional vice-president Étienne Blanc, the LR candidate in Lyon proper who was kicked out of the second round by virtue of the Buffet-Collomb deal (LR withdrew in favour of Collomb-LREM's Yann Cucherat in Lyon proper). Blanc has since been very critical of the infamous deal, and targetted those right-wing electors who hadn't digested it very well. The centre, including a divided and weakened macronismo, was no less divided - split between three lists. One led by senator Michèle Vullien (UDI), who replaced the former centrist strongman of the Rhône Michel Mercier. One led by the UDI mayor of Limonest, Max Vincent. Another list was led by Bernard Fialaire (MRSL), former mayor of Belleville-sur-Saône, whose list included supporters of the Képénékian/Kimelfeld dissident wing of macronismo.

The left won 32.5% and took 3 seats, split between EELV (2) and the PS (1). Buffet's LR list won 24.9%, allowing the reelection of both of its senators. Blanc's LR list won 16.3% and 1 seat. The 'centrist seat' was won by Fialaire, who got 9.6%. Vullien's UDI list got 6.2%, and Max Vincent's UDI list won 4%.
Result: 3 LR, 2 Ecolo, 1 SOC, 1 RDSE (Left +1)

Haute-Saône: The right held both seats. Incumbent senator and former Sarkozy-era cabinet minister Alain Joyandet (secretary of state for cooperation and Françafrique Francophonie, 2008-10) was reelected on the first ballot with 55.5%. His running-mate, Olivier Rietmann (LR) had missed first round victory by a few votes and won on the second ballot with 54.6% against Gaëlle Galdin (MRSL/DVG), municipal councillor in Vesoul close to the mayor of Vesoul Alain Chrétien (Agir) - Joyandet's main rival in the department.
Result: 2 LR

Saône-et-Loire: No changes, with the right winning 2 seats and the PS getting the third one. The LR list led by incumbent senator Marie Mercier won 40.5% and two seats, while the PS list led by the incumbent senator won 30.4% and one seat. Anotehr LR list, backed by retiring senator Jean-Paul Émorine, was in third with 16.4%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 SOC

Sarthe: As above, the right-left split stayed at 2-1. The two LR male incumbents won reelection on separate lists, because parity requirements in 3-seat departments makes the election of two male senators from a single list very difficult. The LR list led by senator Jean-Pierre Vogel got 31.8%, and the other LR list led by senator Louis-Jean de Nicolaÿ (the son of Pia Maria of Orléans-Braganza, princess of the Brazilian imperial family, and therefore great-grandson of Princess Imperial Isabel of Brazil) won 19.4% and one seat. The PS list won 23% and 1 seat. A LREM list led by LREM deputy Pascale Fontenel-Personne did poorly: finishing fifth, behind EELV, with just 7.9%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 SOC

Savoie: The left, which could have hoped for a seat after gaining Chambéry, missed out because of divisions. Instead, the right held both seats. On the first ballot, senator Martine Berthet (LR) was first with 41%, with André Vairetto (PS) - senator from 2012 to 2014 as suppléant of Thierry Repentin (now the new mayor of Chambéry) - in a strong second with 35.2%. He was ahead of the right's two other candidates: local mayor Cédric Vial (DVD) and Michel Dantin (LR), former mayor of Chambéry defeated this summer, who were both tied at 33.3% (399 votes). EELV's strongest candidate got 11%. On the second ballot, while Dantin withdrew in favour of Vial and Berthet, EELV's strongest candidate did not withdraw. As a result, Berthet and Vial were elected with 51.1% and 48.1% respectively, vs. 44.7% for Vairetto and 16.3% for EELV. Vairetto fell 41 votes short of a seat. Granted, there were 2 candidates on the left for 2 seats, so blame may be a bit unfair - but it's still a stupid lack of common sense.
Result: 2 LR

Haute-Savoie: Disappointing outcome for the left, which gained Annecy this year. Instead, all three right-wing incumbents were reelected on their own separate lists. Loïc Hervé (UDI) won 32.1%, Cyril Pellevat (LR) 30% and Sylviane Noël (LR) 19.6%. The left's list (EELV-PS) won 12.7%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 UC

Seine-Maritime: Another nasty surprise for the left, which lost one seat and now holds just 2 against 4 for the right. A united right-wing (LR-UDI) list, supported by former PM Édouard Phillippe (now mayor of Le Havre), including all three incumbent right-wing senators (1 LR, 1 MRSL, 1 UDI), won 46.8% and 4 seats. The PS list, which included both incumbent Socialist senators, won 23.2% and 1 seat. The PCF is still strong enough here to win a seat on its own, and the PCF list led by incumbent senator Céline Brulin won 17.3% and 1 seat. A EELV-G.s list won 7.7%. The Socialists were only 5 votes short of holding their second seat. The PS did 3 points worse than in 2014, but the PCF and EELV did better than six years ago: the Communists grew from 15% to 17.3% while EELV increased its vote from 3.9% to 7.7%. The left was therefore hurt by the greater dispersion of its vote between three separate lists. Meanwhile, in 2014, the right had been hurt by a dissident DVD list which had won 11.1% (and therefore probably cost the main list a fourth seat), but this year the right's votes were united behind a single list.
Result: 2 LR, 2 UC, 1 SOC, 1 CRC (Right +1)

Deux-Sèvres: The right held both seats. LR incumbent Philippe Mouillier was easily reelected on the first ballot with 68.4%. In a second round to fill the second seat, the LR president of the departmental council Gilbert Favreau won 39.4% against 35.8% for the PS candidate, who was second in the first round. The PS is quite angry that EELV's candidate didn't withdraw (unlike a centrist candidate, who was fifth in the first round), and won 18.6%, splitting the vote and allowing the right to win both seats.
Result: 2 LR

Somme: All three incumbents retired, but the outcome remained the same: 2-1 in favour of the right. As in 2014, the three seats were won by three separate lists, and as in 2014 it was the UDI list - now led by UDI deputy Stéphane Demilly - which placed first, with 32.6%. The LR list, led by the president of the departmental council Laurent Somon, won 28.2%. The PS-PCF-DVG won 21.7%. The PS' senator-elect, Rémi Cardon, is 26 years old, making him the youngest senator in the history of the Fifth Republic (beating by a few months the FN's David Rachline, who was 26 at his election in 2014, the minimum age for the Senate is 24). A macronista list finished fourth with 11.4%.
Result: 1 UC, 1 LR, 1 SOC

Tarn: The left was unable to hold the seat held by retiring senator Thierry Carcenac (PS). Instead, both seats were won by macronista centrists. On the first ballot, incumbent senator Philippe Bonnecarrère (AC, close to macronismo) was easily reelected with 59%. On the second ballot, four-term deputy Philippe Folliot (AC-LREM) won with 28.2% against 27.5% for Vincent Garel (PRG) and 20.4% for Michel Franques (LR), supported by former LR deputy Bernard Carayon and the mayor of Albi. Folliot won by just 8 votes. While the PS, PCF and one of the EELV candidates (as well as a centrist) had withdrawn in favour of the PRG's candidate, he was hurt by a DVG (ex-PRG) candidate who finished fourth in the second round with 14.4% (as well as the remaining EELV candidate who won 7.1%).
Result: 2 UC (Right +1)

Tarn-et-Garonne: A messy and packed field, which ended with the right/centre winning both seats. No candidate was elected on the first ballot. Incumbent senator François Bonhomme (DVD/LR), most famous for surprisingly defeating the PRG's baron Jean-Michel Baylet in 2014, was reelected on the second ballot with 51.9%. Pierre-Antoine Lévi (centrist) won the second seat by just one vote over Jean-Paul Terrenne (PRG), a local mayor close to Baylet. The withdrawal of the PS, EELV and PCF candidates didn't help him at all. Lévi, on the other hand, appears to have benefited from strategic voting from some electors who had backed two other centrist candidates on the first ballots and who both did worse on the second ballot. The LR candidate, backed by the nasty racist LR mayor of Montauban Brigitte Barèges, was fourth in the final round with 19.9%.
Result: 1 LR, 1 UC (Right +1)

Var: In 2014, the Var had been - with the Bouches-du-Rhône - one of two departments to elect a FN senator for the first time ever, following the far-right's victories in Fréjus, Le Luc and Cogolin. The FN's senator, David Rachline, later resigned, preferring to remain mayor of Fréjus (because of new cumul des mandats laws). His successor, Claudine Kauffmann (some racist old lady on Facebook), quit the FN/RN in 2019 and joined Dupont-Aignan's DLF. The Var's only left-wing senator, Pierre-Yves Collombat (ex-PS, now close to Mélenchon's LFI), was also reelected to a second term in 2014. Collombat retired this year, making it an uphill battle for the left to retain a seat in a department where it is moribund. The LR list - with no incumbents or particularly noteworthy names - won 52.5% and 3 seats. The last seat went to a centrist/centre-left macronista list led by a rural PS mayor (and apparently backed by Collombat), which won 21.6% - a surprisingly good result, even better than Collombat's result in 2014. The RN, however, did poorly: it won 12.6%, down from 19% in 2014 - a significant loss since 2014 (and the party only lost Le Luc this year). Unlike Ravier in the Bouches-du-Rhône, it seems as if the RN here wasn't successful in attracting local electors with no partisan affiliation. It was also probably hurt by the result of Claudine Kauffmann's DLF list (4.5%).
Result: 3 LR, 1 RDSE

Vaucluse: No change, with a 2-1 split for the right. As in 2014, LR split itself between two lists (you know, to avoid having to elect a woman). The list led by Jean-Baptiste Blanc (departmental councillor), with senator Alain Dufaut in third position, won 32.9% and the LR list by led by senator Alain Milon won 28.5%. The united left's list won 22.7%, 'regaining' its seat - Claude Haut, PS senator since 1995 and former president of the general council, defected to LREM in 2017. Worth mentioning that a LREM list on which Haut was in second place was invalidated because the top candidate was ineligible. The far-right has a sizable local base in Vaucluse, even though it is internally divided. The RN list won 12.6%, only gaining a few votes from 2014. On the other hand, the Ligue du Sud - the party of the horrible Bompard clan - only won 43 votes (3.4%) this year, suffering from Marie-Claude Bompard's defeat in Bollène.
Result: 2 LR, 1 SOC (Left +1)

Vendée: The right remains hegemonic locally, and like in 2014 the right's list - led by senator Bruno Retailleau (LR), a one-time villieriste who is now president of the LR group in the Senate and an early presidential candidate for 2022 (why?) - won all 3 seats with 70.8%. A LREM list came a very distant second with 11%, and EELV won 10%.
Result: 2 LR, 1 UC

Vienne: Unsurprisingly, and against weak competition, the right held both seats. The president of the departmental council, Bruno Belin (DVD), won 66.7% in the first round and incumbent senator Yves Bouloux (LR), first elected in a 2017 by-election to replace Jean-Pierre Raffarin, won 62.1%. A DVG-PCF candidate, supported by all left-wing departmental councillors and the PS, won 30.6% and a EELV candidate won 24.8%.
Result: 2 LR

Haute-Vienne: In 2014, this old left-wing stronghold had seen the election of a centre-right senator, in the wake of the right's surprising victory in Limoges (which was confirmed and amplified in 2020). Six years ago, the PS had also been hurt by some PCF voters going for the centre-right candidate, Jean-Marc Gabouty, to spite the dominant Socialists. This year, however, the PS won both seats. It was the right which suffered from internal divisions: incumbent senator Jean-Marc Gabouty (MRSL-LREM) needed to contend with two LR candidates including the freshly reelected LR mayor of Limoges Émile-Roger Lombertie (a candidacy which may have annoyed some, given that he hadn't shared his senatorial ambitions during his municipal campaign...). On the first ballot, the first PS candidate won 37.5%, Lombertie won 35.9%, the second PS candidate won 33% and Gabouty won 24.2%. On the second ballot, the second LR candidate and both PCF/ADS candidates withdrew. On the second ballot, the PS candidates won 50.7% and 43.2% respectively, while Lombertie won 40.2% and Gabouty only got 24.6%.
Result: 2 SOC (Left +1)

Vosges: In this conservative department, LR lost one seat to the UDI. While incumbent senator Daniel Gremillet (LR) was easily reelected with over 70% on the first ballot, the second LR candidate - the mayor of Neufchâteau - was defeated by Jean Hingray, the UDI mayor of Remiremont, 52.7% to 37%. Former PS deputy Christian Franqueville won 8.9% in the second round.
Result: 1 LR, 1 UC

Yonne: With the left very weak here locally, the contest was on the right/centre. One of the senators elected in 2014, Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne (then DVD) has since become a macronista and is now secretary of state for tourism, French citizens abroad and La Francophonie (previously secretary of state to the foreign minister since June 2017). After a very bizarre and ultimately aborted attempt to run in the municipal elections in Biarritz (his girlfriend is a PS senator for the Pyrénées-Atlantiques) and after his renomination in the Castex government, Lemoyne chose to run for the Senate again in his native department. There he met the other incumbent, Dominique Vérien (UDI), elected in a 2017 by-election, UDI deputy André Villiers (Ilham Aliyev's local lobbyist in Paris), and the LR candidate. Vérien was reelected in the first round with 64%. Lemoyne (LREM) was elected in the second round with 52.6% against 41.9% for the LR candidate, Villiers - who got 19.7% in the first round - having withdrawn. Lemoyne won't hold his seat as long as he's in government, so his suppléante will hold the seat until then.
Result 1 UC, 1 LREM

Territoire-de-Belfort: With the left weakened locally and the retirement of the old Che(vènement), LR gained the seat in 2014. LR incumbent Cédric Perrin was easily reelected with 72.2% against 11.6% for a LREM candidate.
Result: 1 LR

French Guiana: Senator Georges Patient (Guyane rassemblement-LREM) was reelected in the first round with 54%. In the second round, the mayor of Cayenne since 2010 Marie-Laure Phinéra-Horth (DVG) was elected with 47.3% against 39.4% for a centre-right candidate.
Result: 1 LREM, 1 RASNAG

Saint-Barthélemy: A rotten borough if I've ever seen one. One senator elected by an electoral college of 21 people. The LR incumbent, Michel Magras, retired and his chosen successor, Micheline Jacques (LR) was elected unopposed.
Result: 1 LR

Saint-Martin: Also a rotten borough, elected by an electoral college of 25 people. The right gained control of the territorial council - the only electors for the Senate - in 2017. Senator Guillaume Arnell (DVG/RDSE) sought reelection but didn't stand a chance. He was third in both rounds. Annick Petrus (LR) defeated another LR candidate and Arnell on the second ballot with 68.2%.
Result: 1 LR (Right +1)

French Polynesia: The two candidates of the ruling centre-right Tapura huiraatira, the party of president Édouard Fritch (affiliated nationally with the UDI but close to LREM), easily won both seats with the exact same number of votes each (68.2%) in the first round. Incumbent senator Nuihau Laurey, who recently left the Tapura, sought reelection with the support of the Tahoera'a, the party of corrupt former local strongman Gaston Flosse, and was a distant third with 18.2%. Veteran nationalist leader Oscar Temaru, leader of the pro-independence Tavini huiraatira, won just 11.9%.
Result: 2 UC

Wallis and Futuna: Politics here are sui generis and bear very little, if any, relation to French politics despite the deceiving presence of familiar party labels at times. Senator Robert Laufoaulu (DVD/LIRT), in office since 1998, sought another term but was defeated by Mikaele Kulimoetoke (DVG), former president of the territorial assembly. Kulimoetoke defeated Laufoaulu 12 votes to 9 in the second round.
Result: 1 Who the hell knows

That's all folks.

[Hash]

Final group compositions:

LR 148 (+4)
SER 65 (-6) - 'Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain'
UC 54 (+3)
RDPI (ex-LREM) 23 (=) - Rassemblement des démocrates, progressistes et indépendants
CRCE 15 (-1)
RDSE 15 (-9)
LIRT 13 (=)
E-ST 12 (+12) - Écologiste - Solidarité et Territoires
RASNAG 3 (-3)

The new green group is made up of five previously elected incumbents who left their previous groups (Esther Benbassa and Guillaume Gontard from the CRCE; Ronan Dantec and Joël Labbé from RDSE; Sophie Taillé-Polian, G.s from the Socialist group). Corsican nationalist Paul Toussaint Parigi also joined the group, as expected. Guillaume Gontard (DVG, Isère) was elected president of the group instead of Esther Benbassa (EELV, Paris), who is far more controversial.

The LREM group was renamed 'Rassemblement des démocrates, progressistes et indépendants' (Rally of democrats, progressives and independents), ostensibly to broaden and enlarge the presidential majority, perhaps unofficially in a (for now) unsuccessful attempt to attract more senators who might be turned off by the unpopular and tarnished LREM brand. And, of course, in French politics, no words are more meaningless and vague than 'democrats', 'progressives' and 'independent'. I'm kind of surprised that they didn't just also add in 'écologiste' since that word is so #trendy now (3 groups!) and FBM is, of course, all about Making Our Planet Great Again. The RDPI/LREM group includes both Guianese senators, one of the Polynesian senators and the new senator from Wallis and Futuna.

RDSE ended up being the biggest loser of the election from a mix of retirements, defeats and defections. Among notable losses are the reduction of the Guériniste mafia from 3 to 1, defeats of Vall (PRG, Gers), Laborde (MR, Haute-Garonne) and Gabouty (MR, Haute-Vienne) and the defections of two incumbents to the new green group. On the other hand, it gained Guiol (soft macronista PS?, Var), Fialaire (MR, Rhône) and Bilhac (PRG, Hérault).

LIRT is staying around. It fills the role of a miscellaneous right-wing grouping for DVD-types who don't have much of a problem with Macron but also like Larcher's Senate majority.

The Communists had a pretty good election. The creation of the green group cost them two senators, but they had gains in Dordogne and Bouches-du-Rhône.

RASNAG has a much reduced contingent, once again exclusively right-wingers: Ravier (RN), weird right-winger Jean-Louis Masson (Moselle) and his running-mate Christine Herzog. Not sure who will be delegate of that small bunch.

Also last Friday Larcher was reelected president with 231 votes against 65 for Kanner (PS), 15 for Assassi (PCF) and 13 for Gontard (EST).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating analysis. Thanks for taking such care and going into so much detail.

Overall, if we take "the left" as RDSE and everything to it's left, it lost 4 seats (though it gained 5 if we exclude RDSE). And conversely, if the right includes UC and LIRT and the unregistered, that's a gain of 4 seats. Kinda disappointing, I have to say. The left made some significant gains in the municipals this year, but those gains were mostly in big cities and therefore had little impact on the electoral college. The right still dominates mid-sized and small towns.