The issue is that they're allowing a lot of subgroup variance. If you think about it you can tell how many of the weird maps happen.
It can be, say, "extremely good Biden black voter scenario" (black turnout 80% or something) combined with "extremely good Trump Hispanic voter scenario" (Trump wins Hispanics!) and then suddenly Biden is winning places in the Deep South with all his black voters while Trump wins New Mexico, etc.
Right, but my point is, in an era as polarized as this one it's pretty unlikely to simultaneously see contrasting trends like that. These trends are
generally going to go in the same direction. The subgroup variance needs much more covariance. You'd really only build a model which does this frequently if 2016 realignment takes melted your brain.
One of the specifically weird things is that they allow Corona to be a group thing for states. So when you combine a bunch of different tail end scenarios for different groupings, including some that group states along non-political lines (like Corona) you get these really wild outcomes.
This is interesting - didn't know about this.
Is that a Jorgensen win in WY or did Wyoming literally just disappear?
It's a weird aesthetically non-intuitive way of highlighting only the states of the winner - Trump wins WY here.
