Yeah the biggest problem with the model right now is that it has fat tails (which yeah okay, still some uncertainty because we're months from election day, guess that makes sense) that aren't correlated with each other at all. That's why you're getting obviously bunk outcomes like R-AZ but D-LA.
I'm not sure why Nate's model is doing this because I've definitely seen him harping on state correlations before. Right now the model seems to just grab tail-outcomes for random states in random directions and it leads to obviously whacky stuff.
With that said I spotted this gem on the back panel a few days ago
Is that a Jorgensen win in WY or did Wyoming literally just disappear?
