TX-YouGov: Cornyn +7 (RV), +6 (LV)
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Author Topic: TX-YouGov: Cornyn +7 (RV), +6 (LV)  (Read 1180 times)
MT Treasurer 6 - 0 "Swing State NH"
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« on: August 17, 2020, 12:24:00 PM »

RV

44% John Cornyn (R, inc.)
37% MJ Hegar (D)

LV

47% John Cornyn (R, inc.)
41% MJ Hegar (D)

PRES: Trump +7 (RV), +5 (LV)

https://www.txhpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/THPFFinalAug17.pdf
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2020, 12:46:41 PM »

How is Electoral Titan and Hero of the Ancestrally Republican Suburbs John Cornyn not overperforming Trump!?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2020, 01:12:32 PM »

Hegar is a bad fit, Castro would have won
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2020, 02:03:49 PM »

How is Electoral Titan and Hero of the Ancestrally Republican Suburbs John Cornyn not overperforming Trump!?

They are both up by 5ish.
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YE
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2020, 02:20:34 PM »

How is Electoral Titan and Hero of the Ancestrally Republican Suburbs John Cornyn not overperforming Trump!?

They are both up by 5ish.

I'd be very surprised given the national climate and assuming that stays the same if Trump won Texas by 5 and one sketchy CBS poll should not change that.

Cornyn/Hegar is more of a wildcard just because polls for Hegar have been underwhelming and it's mid-August. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if that ends up going down to the wire as Hegar becomes more known and Cornyn isn't a strong enough incumbent for me to think he's a shoe in to significantly outrun Trump.

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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2020, 02:26:31 PM »

Cornyn is toast
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2020, 02:27:25 PM »

The race is Lean R lol
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM »

Try Likely D
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2020, 02:31:04 PM »

Your're not even a good troll. Onto the ignore list you go.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2020, 02:55:08 PM »

How is Electoral Titan and Hero of the Ancestrally Republican Suburbs John Cornyn not overperforming Trump!?

They are both up by 5ish.

I'd be very surprised given the national climate and assuming that stays the same if Trump won Texas by 5 and one sketchy CBS poll should not change that.

Cornyn/Hegar is more of a wildcard just because polls for Hegar have been underwhelming and it's mid-August. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if that ends up going down to the wire as Hegar becomes more known and Cornyn isn't a strong enough incumbent for me to think he's a shoe in to significantly outrun Trump.



Some WC voters wont vote for Biden due to Reade and Ukraine Biden, that's why its getting close
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ExSky
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2020, 12:00:36 PM »

A mostly uncontroversial republican Senator polling just 6 over an unknown Democrat in Texas.....

🎵 the times they are a changin 🎵
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2020, 03:05:01 PM »

TX, FL, AZ, CA has been decimated by the Covid 19 due to influx of Asians and Latinos
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2020, 04:23:34 PM »

How is Electoral Titan and Hero of the Ancestrally Republican Suburbs John Cornyn not overperforming Trump!?

Wow they're doing very similar.

Don't be surprised if as the race heats up, it becomes a very competitive Senate race. I was expecting something like Biden +1%, Cornyn +2-3% in Texas, but maybe even that overestimates Cornyn's crossover appeal.
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Overturn Dobbs
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2020, 05:32:15 PM »

I don't see why people say Hegar is DOA. Being under 50 as a 20 year incumbent is not good. Remember, Beto's average deficit on RCP right before the 2018 election was 6.8 points. A 6-point deficit is definitely doable.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2020, 06:29:44 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2020, 08:14:32 PM by Calthrina950 »

I don't see why people say Hegar is DOA. Being under 50 as a 20 year incumbent is not good. Remember, Beto's average deficit on RCP right before the 2018 election was 6.8 points. A 6-point deficit is definitely doable.

Just like Susan Collins, John Cornyn looks set to suffer a considerable collapse in his support from 2014. As of right now, I still think that this race is Lean/Likely R, but Hegar could very well give Cornyn a scare, and a Cruz-like margin of victory for him in the end wouldn't surprise me.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2020, 12:25:46 AM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by YouGov on 2020-08-13

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2020, 09:51:33 AM »

It's becoming increasingly clear with these poll numbers that Hegar has a name-recognition problem.

Still Lean R, but I think there will be some tightening as campaigning really gets going soon.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2020, 09:56:37 AM »

Lean R.

Cornyn barely breaking 50% in any of the polls may suggest there is some reluctance to support him, but I don't think he'll lose in the end. He's still win even if Biden takes TX by a hair.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2020, 10:09:28 AM »

Still plenty of time for Cornyn to lose thousands of his potential voters to the Trump virus.

Toss-up.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2020, 10:14:49 AM »

Itís pretty much close to Safe R because Hegar will underperform Biden by 2-3 points and since Biden wonít win Texas by more than 2 points , she has almost no chance of winning .



The margins will be close but her chances are very low
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2020, 11:15:16 AM »

Did ya'll mean to post in this thread instead?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=395435.0
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