MI/NC/AZ-Change Research/CNBC: Peters +3, Cunningham +5, Kelly +6

[MT Treasurer]

MI

48% Gary Peters (D, inc.)
45% John James (R)

NC

48% Cal Cunningham (D)
43% Thom Tillis (R, inc.)

AZ

49% Mark Kelly (D)
43% Martha McSally (R, inc.)

Link.

[MT Treasurer]

Change Research, but here’s your daily reminder that the geniuses in the NRSC war room are prioritizing CO and AZ over MI and believe that contesting MI would not be about "protecting the majority but expanding it."

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Change Research. I'm not buying for minute Michigan is closer than North Carolina. Arizona margin may be close to the actual outcome we're going to have in November.

[WD]

Change Research, but here’s your daily reminder that the geniuses in the NRSC war room are prioritizing CO and AZ over MI and believe that contesting MI would not be about "protecting the majority but expanding it."

Yeah, they need to triage AL as well by this logic and start spending in TN and WY. Because there Open Seats ™, and are extremely competitive by default.

[Yellowhammer]

All of these races are safe D

[MT Treasurer]

Change Research, but here’s your daily reminder that the geniuses in the NRSC war room are prioritizing CO and AZ over MI and believe that contesting MI would not be about "protecting the majority but expanding it."

Yeah, they need to triage AL as well by this logic and start spending in TN and WY. Because there Open Seats ™, and are extremely competitive by default.

This is apparently a "hot take", but it’s not even that difficult to come up with a scenario in which MI is the tipping-point race, especially with Tillis underperforming Trump and Collins sinking in the polls. Abandoning that seat in favor of AZ/CO is a sign of criminal incompetence. Then again, so was their decision to prioritize NV and AZ over MT and WV in 2018, so I can’t say I’m surprised.

[S019]

Change Research, but here’s your daily reminder that the geniuses in the NRSC war room are prioritizing CO and AZ over MI and believe that contesting MI would not be about "protecting the majority but expanding it."

Yeah, they need to triage AL as well by this logic and start spending in TN and WY. Because there Open Seats ™, and are extremely competitive by default.

This is apparently a "hot take", but it’s not even that difficult to come up with a scenario in which MI is the tipping-point race, especially with Tillis underperforming Trump and Collins sinking in the polls. Abandoning that seat in favor of AZ/CO is a sign of criminal incompetence. Then again, so was their decision to prioritize NV and AZ over MT and WV in 2018, so I can’t say I’m surprised.

MI also has large margins for Biden in the polls and James is losing badly to Peters as well, NC, GA, ME, or MT are probably the likeliest tipping points, and Republicans need to win all but one. However, James does have a better chance than Gardner or McSally, given that if Trump comes back nationally, James will probably be close to his numbers in MI, while McSally will still be underperforming, and Gardner is basically done. Gardner's race is Safe D, while James and McSally are at Likely D.

[SN2903]

Clear tightening happening in the MI race. James has a big $ advantage and also has higher name ID than peters. Still possible he can win. Won't be easy but I think iit's about a 30-40% at this point that he can pull off a narrow win like 49 48 to 50 48. Michigan tends to tighten a lot in October. I think James will run 1-2% behind Trump. I would give Trump a 40-50% chance at winning Michigan.

[SN2903]

All of these races are safe D

No NC is a Tossup/Tilt D right now.

MI is lean D right now.
AZ is lean D.

Of course this can all change by November.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Change Research, but here’s your daily reminder that the geniuses in the NRSC war room are prioritizing CO and AZ over MI and believe that contesting MI would not be about "protecting the majority but expanding it."

Yeah, they need to triage AL as well by this logic and start spending in TN and WY. Because there Open Seats ™, and are extremely competitive by default.

This is apparently a "hot take", but it’s not even that difficult to come up with a scenario in which MI is the tipping-point race, especially with Tillis underperforming Trump and Collins sinking in the polls. Abandoning that seat in favor of AZ/CO is a sign of criminal incompetence. Then again, so was their decision to prioritize NV and AZ over MT and WV in 2018, so I can’t say I’m surprised.

Trump has been pulling some resources out of MI, presumably because private polling is correlating with public figures showing it snapping back slightly harder than the rest of the Midwest. MI is a better prospect than CO and probably AZ for the NRSC (although money spent on AZ aids Trump in a state he’s seriously contesting), but it’s still in the likely D range and (in terms of margin) polls suggest James is slightly underperforming Trump.

There is far less public polling for MN-SEN, but the little we have does not suggest Jason Lewis is underperforming. His fundraising is worse than James’, but that’s an extra incentive to invest  in his race, which I put at lean D.

One thing to keep in mind regarding incumbent protection is that it’s a courtesy to pretend the defending party is taking a race seriously even when they’re not. Showing loyalty like this may be what’s required to attract certain talented would-be politicians who are hesitant about entering the proverbial bear pit of electoral politics.

[Xing]

Change isn’t reliable, but I do expect Kelly to win by more than Peters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Change isn’t realizable, but I do expect Kelly to win by more than Peters.

Kelly will win by 2 and Peter's by 4, the polls will close. That's how much Sinema won by, 2 pts