I thought it would be interesting to bump this thread and reflect upon this list. Of the states listed here, California, Hawaii, and Nevada were the only three to swing to Trump. California is surprising, given Kamala Harris, but I suspect that the Asian and Hispanic swing to Trump helped him there. Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County and actually improved in Imperial County compared to 2016. Hawaii swung towards the incumbent as expected (with the pro-Republican swing among Asians also being a factor), while Nevada actually moved towards Trump because of the lockdowns, and not against him.
The national Hispanic and Asian R swings were
reflected in polls several months in advance, and
predated COVID-19/George Floyd. In hindsight, it seems like Hawaii and Los Angeles/Santa Clara counties were also affected by lockdowns (
some posters commented on COVID-related unemployment in those heavily Asian jurisdictions).