These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.
Better
Hawaii: incumbents usually tend to improve a bit
Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
New Mexico: Trump doing better with Latinos, decent % of working class whites in the state, Gary Johnson not on the ballot
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states
Rhode Island: Trump outperformed here in 2016, he improves with working class white Catholics
Worse
California: 1 million new Dems added to registration compared to 50K Republicans since 2016, Harris on the ticket, Bay Area, LA, Orange, move further left
Nevada: the virus lockdown disproportionately hurt the Vegas economy, very strong state GOP machine and labor unions. Clark County makes up nearly 70% of the state's electorate.
Colorado: Trump's further deterioration with college educated whites in blue states will crush him here
Virginia: same dynamic as Colorado but even worse. The northern counties are filled with government employees, lobbyists, lawyers, and they HATE Trump for tackling the status quo
Maryland: Trump probably does better in the rural and exurban areas, but the state is dominated by Columbia, Prince George, Baltimore counties, where Trump will certainly do worse
Delaware: Biden's home state
Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here
I thought it would be interesting to bump this thread and reflect upon this list. Of the states listed here, California, Hawaii, and Nevada were the only three to swing to Trump. California is surprising, given Kamala Harris, but I suspect that the Asian and Hispanic swing to Trump helped him there. Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County and actually improved in Imperial County compared to 2016. Hawaii swung towards the incumbent as expected (with the pro-Republican swing among Asians also being a factor), while Nevada actually moved towards Trump
because of the lockdowns, and not against him.
All of the other states listed swung against Trump to varying degrees, with Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, and Vermont being among the states where Biden most improved over Hillary Clinton. Biden was also able to exceed Obama's 2012 performance in Connecticut, to roughly match his performance in Delaware, New Mexico, and New Jersey, and fell just short of matching his performance in Rhode Island and New York. In the first column of states, college-educated and suburban voters swung strongly to Biden.
