Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
Posts: 770
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« on: August 16, 2020, 05:59:03 PM » |
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These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.
Better
Hawaii: incumbents usually tend to improve a bit
Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
New Mexico: Trump doing better with Latinos, decent % of working class whites in the state, Gary Johnson not on the ballot
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states
Rhode Island: Trump outperformed here in 2016, he improves with working class white Catholics
Worse
California: 1 million new Dems added to registration compared to 50K Republicans since 2016, Harris on the ticket, Bay Area, LA, Orange, move further left
Nevada: the virus lockdown disproportionately hurt the Vegas economy, very strong state GOP machine and labor unions. Clark County makes up nearly 70% of the state's electorate.
Colorado: Trump's further deterioration with college educated whites in blue states will crush him here
Virginia: same dynamic as Colorado but even worse. The northern counties are filled with government employees, lobbyists, lawyers, and they HATE Trump for tackling the status quo
Maryland: Trump probably does better in the rural and exurban areas, but the state is dominated by Columbia, Prince George, Baltimore counties, where Trump will certainly do worse
Delaware: Biden's home state
Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here
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