Blue states where Trump will do better/worse than in 2016
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January 20, 2022, 09:20:17 AM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  Blue states where Trump will do better/worse than in 2016
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Author Topic: Blue states where Trump will do better/worse than in 2016  (Read 549 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 16, 2020, 05:59:03 PM »

These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.

Better

Hawaii: incumbents usually tend to improve a bit
Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
New Mexico: Trump doing better with Latinos, decent  % of working class whites in the state, Gary Johnson not on the ballot
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states
Rhode Island: Trump outperformed here in 2016, he improves with working class white Catholics

Worse

California: 1 million new Dems added to registration compared to 50K Republicans since 2016, Harris on the ticket, Bay Area, LA, Orange, move further left
Nevada: the virus lockdown disproportionately hurt the Vegas economy, very strong state GOP machine and labor unions. Clark County makes up nearly 70% of the state's electorate.
Colorado: Trump's further deterioration with college educated whites in blue states will crush him here
Virginia: same dynamic as Colorado but even worse. The northern counties are filled with government employees, lobbyists, lawyers, and they HATE Trump for tackling the status quo
Maryland: Trump probably does better in the rural and exurban areas, but the state is dominated by Columbia, Prince George, Baltimore counties, where Trump will certainly do worse
Delaware: Biden's home state
Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2020, 06:04:00 PM »

Not to sound too rude, but your predictions for why those states might swing towards Trump are completely delusional.

The answer is that he probably doesn't improve in any of them, honestly. Okay fine, maybe Hawaii if it continues its small pro-incumbent swing.
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The Strange Death of Christian Democratic Germany
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2020, 06:11:36 PM »

Outside the right-wing media bubble, people don't care about ANTIFA (much less think it is the number 1 threat to the country) and support BLM by large margins.
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2020, 06:14:34 PM »

Outside the right-wing media bubble, people don't care about ANTIFA (much less think it is the number 1 threat to the country) and support BLM by large margins.

They support the message of BLM, but not what they stand for.
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Opposition Leader Spark
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2020, 06:29:39 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2020, 06:42:47 PM by #JokeMala »

Better

Hawaii - Incumbency boost for Trump
Oregon - Portland lawlessness swings the rural parts of the state to Trump a little more and he breaks 40%.
Washington - Seattle lawlessness helps Trump same as OR.
Illinois - Chicago violence helps Trump in suburbs and rural areas
New Jersey - Trump worked with Gov Murphy and improves in Southern part of state
New York - Trump does better in upstate NY and expands margin in Staten Island
Connecticut - Trump does well with the wealthy
Nevada - Trump improves rural margins and runs close in Washoe
New Mexico - Trump benefits from Johnson not being on the ballot and Latinos stay home
Colorado - Same as NM but Trump does a little better in rural areas but worse in suburbs around Denver. He also improves in Colorado Springs to get around 44%.

Worse

California - Dem registration advantage, Trump's immigration policy is disdainful
Delaware - Challenger's home state
Maine - Biden does better in ME-02
Maryland - Trump does worse around Baltimore and loses Anne Arundel county
Massachusetts - Liberal elitism crushes Trump
Rhode Island - Biden does better with Catholic and the WWC
District of Columbia - Minorities back Biden
Virginia - Govt workers are plentiful and establishment elites hate Trump
Vermont - Progressives come out against Trump
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2020, 06:31:44 PM »

Trump probably does worse in all of them given he's losing by a lot more nationwide, the question is where the swing against him is less than the nationwide swing. I could see Maryland and California actually trending R, but still swinging to Biden and giving Trump abysmal margins.
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Senator OBD
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2020, 06:37:24 PM »

Trump doesn't improve his numbers in Oregon (and likely Washington as well) - the suburbs (not to mention Portland) despise him, (from what I've seen) progressives are coalescing behind Biden, and I doubt the marginal gains (if any) he makes in the rurals can stop him from sliding. Biden probably wins here by at least 15-17 points, if not pushing 20.
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2020, 06:39:24 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2020, 06:45:21 PM by Monstro »

These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.

Better

Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states

Worse

Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here

Better

Oregon - Portland lawlessness swings the rural parts of the state to Trump a little more and he breaks 40%.
Washington - Seattle lawlessness helps Trump same as OR.
Illinois - Chicago violence helps Trump in suburbs and rural areas

I'm sure ya'll would've predicted California to stay red in 1992 after the Los Angeles "leftist" violence & lawlessness
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2020, 07:09:20 PM »

Trump does worse in all of them

Republicans saying Trump will improve in NJ have clearly never been to the state
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2022, 10:52:19 PM »

These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.

Better

Hawaii: incumbents usually tend to improve a bit
Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
New Mexico: Trump doing better with Latinos, decent  % of working class whites in the state, Gary Johnson not on the ballot
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states
Rhode Island: Trump outperformed here in 2016, he improves with working class white Catholics

Worse

California: 1 million new Dems added to registration compared to 50K Republicans since 2016, Harris on the ticket, Bay Area, LA, Orange, move further left
Nevada: the virus lockdown disproportionately hurt the Vegas economy, very strong state GOP machine and labor unions. Clark County makes up nearly 70% of the state's electorate.
Colorado: Trump's further deterioration with college educated whites in blue states will crush him here
Virginia: same dynamic as Colorado but even worse. The northern counties are filled with government employees, lobbyists, lawyers, and they HATE Trump for tackling the status quo
Maryland: Trump probably does better in the rural and exurban areas, but the state is dominated by Columbia, Prince George, Baltimore counties, where Trump will certainly do worse
Delaware: Biden's home state
Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here

I thought it would be interesting to bump this thread and reflect upon this list. Of the states listed here, California, Hawaii, and Nevada were the only three to swing to Trump. California is surprising, given Kamala Harris, but I suspect that the Asian and Hispanic swing to Trump helped him there. Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County and actually improved in Imperial County compared to 2016. Hawaii swung towards the incumbent as expected (with the pro-Republican swing among Asians also being a factor), while Nevada actually moved towards Trump because of the lockdowns, and not against him.

All of the other states listed swung against Trump to varying degrees, with Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, and Vermont being among the states where Biden most improved over Hillary Clinton. Biden was also able to exceed Obama's 2012 performance in Connecticut, to roughly match his performance in Delaware, New Mexico, and New Jersey, and fell just short of matching his performance in Rhode Island and New York. In the first column of states, college-educated and suburban voters swung strongly to Biden.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2022, 11:37:31 PM »

I thought it would be interesting to bump this thread and reflect upon this list. Of the states listed here, California, Hawaii, and Nevada were the only three to swing to Trump. California is surprising, given Kamala Harris, but I suspect that the Asian and Hispanic swing to Trump helped him there. Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County and actually improved in Imperial County compared to 2016. Hawaii swung towards the incumbent as expected (with the pro-Republican swing among Asians also being a factor), while Nevada actually moved towards Trump because of the lockdowns, and not against him.

The national Hispanic and Asian R swings were reflected in polls several months in advance, and predated COVID-19/George Floyd. In hindsight, it seems like Hawaii and Los Angeles/Santa Clara counties were also affected by lockdowns (some posters commented on COVID-related unemployment in those heavily Asian jurisdictions).
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2022, 07:59:30 PM »

"Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County"

My home county here, I love that holding his ground here is less then 27% of the vote to Biden's 71%. Some of these swings I feel tend to get over analyzed when looking at the big picture of the vote that occurred.
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2022, 09:45:00 PM »

Are there is a reverse to this forum
Red states where Biden will do better/worse than Clinton in 2016
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2022, 09:59:49 PM »

These are blue states that Trump will almost certainly lose this year. I am talking about his loss margin this year compared to his loss margin in 2016.

Better

Hawaii: incumbents usually tend to improve a bit
Washington: Seattle leftist violence turns off normal people outside the city
Oregon: ditto for Portland violence
New Mexico: Trump doing better with Latinos, decent  % of working class whites in the state, Gary Johnson not on the ballot
Illinois: Chicago violence and Lightfoot's incompetence turning off suburban moderates
New Jersey/New York/Connecticut: lumping them all together as they are affected by NYC violence and chaos, DeBlasio and Cuomo's incompetence, incumbents tend to improve in those states
Rhode Island: Trump outperformed here in 2016, he improves with working class white Catholics

Worse

California: 1 million new Dems added to registration compared to 50K Republicans since 2016, Harris on the ticket, Bay Area, LA, Orange, move further left
Nevada: the virus lockdown disproportionately hurt the Vegas economy, very strong state GOP machine and labor unions. Clark County makes up nearly 70% of the state's electorate.
Colorado: Trump's further deterioration with college educated whites in blue states will crush him here
Virginia: same dynamic as Colorado but even worse. The northern counties are filled with government employees, lobbyists, lawyers, and they HATE Trump for tackling the status quo
Maryland: Trump probably does better in the rural and exurban areas, but the state is dominated by Columbia, Prince George, Baltimore counties, where Trump will certainly do worse
Delaware: Biden's home state
Massachusetts/Vermont: the epicenters of New England liberalism, not hit hard by the ANTIFA-BLM crime wave, Trump is toxic here

I thought it would be interesting to bump this thread and reflect upon this list. Of the states listed here, California, Hawaii, and Nevada were the only three to swing to Trump. California is surprising, given Kamala Harris, but I suspect that the Asian and Hispanic swing to Trump helped him there. Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County and actually improved in Imperial County compared to 2016. Hawaii swung towards the incumbent as expected (with the pro-Republican swing among Asians also being a factor), while Nevada actually moved towards Trump because of the lockdowns, and not against him.

All of the other states listed swung against Trump to varying degrees, with Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, and Vermont being among the states where Biden most improved over Hillary Clinton. Biden was also able to exceed Obama's 2012 performance in Connecticut, to roughly match his performance in Delaware, New Mexico, and New Jersey, and fell just short of matching his performance in Rhode Island and New York. In the first column of states, college-educated and suburban voters swung strongly to Biden.
I agree with the OP that anger at lockdowns would be a major factor in Nevada, but they guessed that the wrong person would be blamed by the electorate
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 10:01:40 PM »

"Trump held his ground in Los Angeles County"

My home county here, I love that holding his ground here is less then 27% of the vote to Biden's 71%. Some of these swings I feel tend to get over analyzed when looking at the big picture of the vote that occurred.

I'm not trying to imply that Trump improved in Los Angeles County, not to anything like what occurred in Miami-Dade County. But he did not do worse than in 2016, and Los Angeles County swung Republican.
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